946
FXUS62 KGSP 281900
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
300 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS FURTHER EAST, ALLOWING MOISTURE AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO RETURN ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. DRY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT MID-WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 238 PM: THE FORECAST CONTINUED TO MOVE ALONG AS EXPECTED. THE
MID SHIFT HAD THE FORESIGHT TO INCLUDE A SMOKE PLUME BLOWING NNE
FROM THE TABLE ROCK FIRE COMPLEX, WHICH WAS A VERY GOOD CALL. NO
CHANGES FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON SUGGESTED BY SATELLITE/OBS
TRENDS, ALTHO THE VIS IMAGERY SHOWS SOME BETTER-LOOKING CU OVER SOME
PARTS OF THE SMOKIES AND NRN MOUNTAINS. NOTE THAT SOME OF THE CAMS
HAD SOME ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NRN MOUNTAINS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON, AND THAT COULD STILL HAPPEN, BUT THE RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY HAD BEEN SKETCHY, SO IT WAS LEFT OUT. TEMP/DEWPT WERE
BOTH MORE OR LESS BEHAVING.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE SOME CHANGES BASED
ON THE RECENT PATTERN EVOLUTION THAT PUSHED A LARGE SURFACE HIGH OFF
THE EAST COAST YESTERDAY. THE ENSUING LIGHT S/SE FLOW SHOULD FINALLY
BECOME MORE PRODUCTIVE WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVERNIGHT
AND SATURDAY, THAT SHOULD ALLOW BETTER RECOVERY TONIGHT AND KEEP THE
RH MORE IN CHECK THRU SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL STILL BE A PROBLEM, HOWEVER. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW. FOR TONIGHT, A WELCOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED THAT
WILL KEEP LOW TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FOR
SATURDAY, SOME OF THE GUIDANCE INSISTS ON DEVELOPING SOME LIGHT
UPSLOPE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN NORTHEAST GA AND SOUTHWEST NC, WHICH
THE MODELS USUALLY DEVELOP TOO QUICKLY. THE FCST WE INHERITED WAS
ESSENTIALLY DRY AND THE CAMS HAVE BEEN HAVING CONSISTENCY ISSUES
IN THIS PATTERN, SO THE FCST STICKS WITH THE DRY NBM WITH ONLY AN
ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCE OVER THE SMOKIES. THE MAIN PLUME OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TO THE WEST. TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE
PAST 24 HOURS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCE INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.
2) STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE AREA.
AS OF 155 PM FRIDAY: PICKING UP ON SATURDAY NIGHT, A STRONG AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE ATLANTIC STARTS TO SLIDE
EASTWARD, INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE, AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND LIFTS
NE BY SUNDAY, INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. S/SW WINDS
HELP TO INCREASE THE MOISTURE RETURN AS GUIDANCE HAS PWATS
INCREASING TO THE 1-1.5 INCH RANGE. POPS START TO RAMP UP SATURDAY
NIGHT AND BY SUNDAY, CHANCE POPS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
BY MONDAY, A COLD FRONT FROM THE SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE CWA, BRINGING A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME RANGE. GUIDANCE AT THIS
POINT REMAINS MURKY ON HOW THE INGREDIENTS WILL PLAY OUT. AS OF NOW,
THE FRONT TIMING COULD PLAY A KEY ROLE IN THUNDERSTORM/SEVERE
CHANCES. MONDAY AFTERNOON, GUIDANCE FROM NBM/GFS SHOWS A FEW HUNDRED
JOULES OF SBCAPE AND MODEST SHEAR OF 40-50KTS. AT THIS POINT, THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE AREA FOR POTENTIAL
SEVERE WEATHER, BUT THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT. ONE
POSSIBLE LIMITATION COULD BE THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO THE
SOUTH, INHIBITING ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CWA AT THE TIME OF THE FROPA. AGAIN, THIS COULD CHANGE
BUT IT'S ONE LIMITATION WITH CURRENT GUIDANCE. ADDITIONALLY,
RAINFALL OVER THE SHORT PERIOD DOESN'T LOOK HEAVY ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS
ONGOING WILDFIRES. THERE'S A PROBABILITY OF 40-50% OF HALF AN INCH
OR MORE ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES ON MONDAY. WHERE RAIN IS NEEDED THE
MOST IS AT LEAST WHERE THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL, BUT THERE IS
STILL UNCERTAINTY TO TOTALS THIS FAR OUT. TEMPERATURES AT IF NOT A
TICK ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING BY MID
WEEK.
2) TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY: BY MONDAY NIGHT, THE REMNANT COLD FRONT SHOULD
BE EXITING THE CWA AND LEAVING DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN ONCE AGAIN
BEHIND IT. THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC FLOW TURNS MORE BROAD AND SW THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD, INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS/EURO HINT AT ANOTHER POSSIBLE
FRONTAL PASSAGE BY MID-WEEK, INCREASING RAIN CHANCE PROBS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON ANY ORGANIZED SYSTEM AT THIS POINT. OVERALL,
THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE MORE UNSETTLED WITH MORE MOISTURE AND
POSSIBLE RAINFALL. THIS COULD IMPROVE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BUT IT'S
STILL TOO EARLY TO DRAW CONCLUSIONS. TEMP WISE, EXPECT WELL-ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A RETURN TO SPRING WEATHER ONCE AGAIN.
AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: THE SMOKE PLUME FROM THE TABLE ROCK FIRE
COMPLEX WAS DRIFTING NNE PAST KAVL, AND COULD OCCASIONALLY BRING
A VIS RESTRICTION IN SMOKE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. OTHER
THAN THAT...PREVAILING VFR AT ALL TERMINALS THRU TONIGHT. MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL INVADE AFTER MIDNIGHT. TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY, THERE
IS SOME CONCERN ABOUT MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE S/SE DEVELOPING
A LOW CLOUD CEILING IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
ESCARPMENT. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS OFTEN TOO QUICK IN DEVELOPING THE
LOW CLOUDS IN SUCH A DRY ENVIRONMENT, SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THUS,
A CEILING RESTRICTION WILL NOT BE INCLUDED AT THIS TIME, BUT IS
WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES. EITHER WAY, STRATOCU WILL BE
MORE PREVALENT ACROSS THE REGION BY AFTERNOON. SOME LOW-END GUSTS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS ON SUNDAY
AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY. DRYING IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
TEMPERATURES WARM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. RH IS
ALREADY FALLING BELOW 30 PERCENT ACROSS A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS IN
THE UPSTATE AND WESTERN NC MOUNTAINS. MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
WILL SEE RH FALL TO 20-25%. BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH GUSTS OF 15-25 MPH. AN IMPACT-BASED
RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS OF
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA, UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND RABUN COUNTY
IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH 8PM. IN LIGHT OF THE EXCEPTIONALLY
DRY FUELS, LOW RH, AND MARGINALLY CRITICAL WINDS, INCREASED FIRE
DANGER STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER AREAS NOT IN THE
RFW THROUGH 8PM. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BEGIN OVERNIGHT AND THE RH
WILL NOT DROP AS LOW AS IT HAS THE PAST FEW DAYS, HOWEVER, FIRE
CONDITIONS REMAIN TENUOUS. ANOTHER FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL
LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PART OR ALL OF OUR NC ZONES FOR SATURDAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010.
INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ017-
018-026-028-029.
NC...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ048>053-
058-059-062>065-303-505>510.
INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-
035>037-056-057-068>072-082-501>504.
SC...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ101>106-
108.
INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
SCZ008>014-019-107-109.
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...PM
FIRE WEATHER...CP/PM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page