508
FXUS62 KGSP 282330
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
730 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS FURTHER EAST, ALLOWING MOISTURE AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO RETURN ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. DRY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT MID-WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 715 PM EDT FRIDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THIS EVENING. MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY T/TD/WIND THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO SHOW A
SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE BUT BLENDED IN NBM10 SINCE DEWPOINTS ARE
RUNNING A TAD LOWER THAN FORECAST. ALSO KEPT WINDS A TAD HIGHER
GIVEN CURRENT OBS. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO VSBY FOR AVIATION TO TRY TO
CONTINUE TO INCORPORATE SMOKE.
OTHERWISE, OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE SOME
CHANGES BASED ON THE RECENT PATTERN EVOLUTION THAT PUSHED A LARGE
SURFACE HIGH OFF THE EAST COAST YESTERDAY. THE ENSUING LIGHT S/SE
FLOW SHOULD FINALLY BECOME MORE PRODUCTIVE WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN
MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY, THAT SHOULD ALLOW BETTER RECOVERY
TONIGHT AND KEEP THE RH MORE IN CHECK THRU SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE A PROBLEM, HOWEVER. SEE THE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW. FOR TONIGHT, A WELCOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED THAT WILL KEEP LOW TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF TEN DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. FOR SATURDAY, SOME OF THE GUIDANCE INSISTS ON DEVELOPING
SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN NORTHEAST GA AND SOUTHWEST NC,
WHICH THE MODELS USUALLY DEVELOP TOO QUICKLY. THE FCST WE INHERITED
WAS ESSENTIALLY DRY AND THE CAMS HAVE BEEN HAVING CONSISTENCY ISSUES
IN THIS PATTERN, SO THE FCST STICKS WITH THE DRY NBM WITH ONLY AN
ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCE OVER THE SMOKIES. THE MAIN PLUME OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TO THE WEST. TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE
PAST 24 HOURS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCE INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.
2) STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE AREA.
AS OF 155 PM FRIDAY: PICKING UP ON SATURDAY NIGHT, A STRONG AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE ATLANTIC STARTS TO SLIDE
EASTWARD, INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE, AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND LIFTS
NE BY SUNDAY, INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. S/SW WINDS
HELP TO INCREASE THE MOISTURE RETURN AS GUIDANCE HAS PWATS
INCREASING TO THE 1-1.5 INCH RANGE. POPS START TO RAMP UP SATURDAY
NIGHT AND BY SUNDAY, CHANCE POPS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
BY MONDAY, A COLD FRONT FROM THE SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE CWA, BRINGING A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME RANGE. GUIDANCE AT THIS
POINT REMAINS MURKY ON HOW THE INGREDIENTS WILL PLAY OUT. AS OF NOW,
THE FRONT TIMING COULD PLAY A KEY ROLE IN THUNDERSTORM/SEVERE
CHANCES. MONDAY AFTERNOON, GUIDANCE FROM NBM/GFS SHOWS A FEW HUNDRED
JOULES OF SBCAPE AND MODEST SHEAR OF 40-50KTS. AT THIS POINT, THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE AREA FOR POTENTIAL
SEVERE WEATHER, BUT THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT. ONE
POSSIBLE LIMITATION COULD BE THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO THE
SOUTH, INHIBITING ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CWA AT THE TIME OF THE FROPA. AGAIN, THIS COULD CHANGE
BUT IT'S ONE LIMITATION WITH CURRENT GUIDANCE. ADDITIONALLY,
RAINFALL OVER THE SHORT PERIOD DOESN'T LOOK HEAVY ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS
ONGOING WILDFIRES. THERE'S A PROBABILITY OF 40-50% OF HALF AN INCH
OR MORE ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES ON MONDAY. WHERE RAIN IS NEEDED THE
MOST IS AT LEAST WHERE THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL, BUT THERE IS
STILL UNCERTAINTY TO TOTALS THIS FAR OUT. TEMPERATURES AT IF NOT A
TICK ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING BY MID
WEEK.
2) TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY: BY MONDAY NIGHT, THE REMNANT COLD FRONT SHOULD
BE EXITING THE CWA AND LEAVING DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN ONCE AGAIN
BEHIND IT. THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC FLOW TURNS MORE BROAD AND SW THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD, INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS/EURO HINT AT ANOTHER POSSIBLE
FRONTAL PASSAGE BY MID-WEEK, INCREASING RAIN CHANCE PROBS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON ANY ORGANIZED SYSTEM AT THIS POINT. OVERALL,
THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE MORE UNSETTLED WITH MORE MOISTURE AND
POSSIBLE RAINFALL. THIS COULD IMPROVE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BUT IT'S
STILL TOO EARLY TO DRAW CONCLUSIONS. TEMP WISE, EXPECT WELL-ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A RETURN TO SPRING WEATHER ONCE AGAIN.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD; SMOKE PREVIOUSLY
IMPACTING KAVL HAS DISSIPATED THOUGH AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES
CANNOT RULE OUT OCCASIONAL LOW VFR POPPING BACK IN. INCREASING MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASE IN
VFR CLOUDS OVERNIGHT, AND WITH UPSLOPE FLOW IN WESTERN UPSTATE,
EXPECT SOME LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT.
THIS IS HINTED AT BEST AT KAND WITH LOW VFR. CONTINUED INCREASING
MOISTURE ON SATURDAY WILL ALLOW FOR VFR STRATOCU TO THICKEN. WINDS
REMAIN GENERALLY SW TO SSW THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH LOW-END GUSTS
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS ON SUNDAY AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY. DRYING IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
TEMPERATURES WARM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. RH IS
ALREADY FALLING BELOW 30 PERCENT ACROSS A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS IN
THE UPSTATE AND WESTERN NC MOUNTAINS. MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
WILL SEE RH FALL TO 20-25%. BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH GUSTS OF 15-25 MPH. AN IMPACT-BASED
RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS OF
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA, UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND RABUN COUNTY
IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH 8PM. IN LIGHT OF THE EXCEPTIONALLY
DRY FUELS, LOW RH, AND MARGINALLY CRITICAL WINDS, INCREASED FIRE
DANGER STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER AREAS NOT IN THE
RFW THROUGH 8PM. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BEGIN OVERNIGHT AND THE RH
WILL NOT DROP AS LOW AS IT HAS THE PAST FEW DAYS, HOWEVER, FIRE
CONDITIONS REMAIN TENUOUS. ANOTHER FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL
LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PART OR ALL OF OUR NC ZONES FOR SATURDAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010.
INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ017-
018-026-028-029.
NC...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ048>053-
058-059-062>065-303-505>510.
INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-
035>037-056-057-068>072-082-501>504.
SC...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ101>106-
108.
INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
SCZ008>014-019-107-109.
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...PM/TDP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...TDP
FIRE WEATHER...
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