342
FXUS62 KGSP 290612
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
212 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS FURTHER EAST, ALLOWING MOISTURE AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO RETURN ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. DRY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT MID-WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 150 AM: STRONG WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. DEEP SHORTWAVE CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX
IS ASSOCIATED WITH PLENTIFUL HIGH ALTITUDE MOISTURE AND WILL
PROVIDE SOME DPVA AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO KY/TN TODAY,
ALTHOUGH DAMPENING. LIGHT TO MODERATE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES OVER OUR CWA THIS MORNING. SUFFICIENT MOISTENING IS SEEN
ON PROG PROFILES TO EXPECT SOME LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
SOUTH-FACING BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT BY DAYBREAK. CAMS, EXCEPTING
THE NAMNEST, DO NOT RESPOND WITH QPF AT THAT TIME. FORCING WITH
THE SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY WHEN SOME OF THE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO MIX OUT; THERE IS
SOME PROGGED SBCAPE BUT THE VERY DRY MIDLEVEL AIR SEEN ABOVE THE
PBL APPEARS TO BE TOO MUCH OF A LIMITING FACTOR FOR UPDRAFTS;
CAMS CONTINUE TO FEATURE VERY LITTLE QPF RESPONSE. A SMALL AREA OF
SLIGHT-CHANCE POP WILL BE RETAINED OVER THE SW NC RIDGES AND THE
WESTERN ESCARPMENT. THE BETTER THERMODYNAMICS WILL BE WEST OF OUR
MOUNTAINS IN TN. LIKEWISE, THE SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD CARRY ANY CELLS
DEVELOPING IN THE SMOKIES INTO TN IF THEY CAN SURVIVE THAT LONG. NOT
EXPECTING PRECIP ACTIVITY THROUGH SUNSET TO BE VERY IMPACTFUL ON
THE ONGOING WILDFIRES. FIRE DANGER STATEMENT CURRENTLY IN PLACE FOR
NC AND WILL EVALUATE WHETHER THAT NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED. MAX TEMPS
PROBABLY A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW FRIDAY'S OWING TO THE CLOUD COVER.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCE INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.
2) STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE AREA.
AS OF 155 PM FRIDAY: PICKING UP ON SATURDAY NIGHT, A STRONG AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE ATLANTIC STARTS TO SLIDE
EASTWARD, INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE, AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND LIFTS
NE BY SUNDAY, INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. S/SW WINDS
HELP TO INCREASE THE MOISTURE RETURN AS GUIDANCE HAS PWATS
INCREASING TO THE 1-1.5 INCH RANGE. POPS START TO RAMP UP SATURDAY
NIGHT AND BY SUNDAY, CHANCE POPS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
BY MONDAY, A COLD FRONT FROM THE SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE CWA, BRINGING A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME RANGE. GUIDANCE AT THIS
POINT REMAINS MURKY ON HOW THE INGREDIENTS WILL PLAY OUT. AS OF NOW,
THE FRONT TIMING COULD PLAY A KEY ROLE IN THUNDERSTORM/SEVERE
CHANCES. MONDAY AFTERNOON, GUIDANCE FROM NBM/GFS SHOWS A FEW HUNDRED
JOULES OF SBCAPE AND MODEST SHEAR OF 40-50KTS. AT THIS POINT, THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE AREA FOR POTENTIAL
SEVERE WEATHER, BUT THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT. ONE
POSSIBLE LIMITATION COULD BE THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO THE
SOUTH, INHIBITING ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CWA AT THE TIME OF THE FROPA. AGAIN, THIS COULD CHANGE
BUT IT'S ONE LIMITATION WITH CURRENT GUIDANCE. ADDITIONALLY,
RAINFALL OVER THE SHORT PERIOD DOESN'T LOOK HEAVY ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS
ONGOING WILDFIRES. THERE'S A PROBABILITY OF 40-50% OF HALF AN INCH
OR MORE ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES ON MONDAY. WHERE RAIN IS NEEDED THE
MOST IS AT LEAST WHERE THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL, BUT THERE IS
STILL UNCERTAINTY TO TOTALS THIS FAR OUT. TEMPERATURES AT IF NOT A
TICK ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING BY MID
WEEK.
2) TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY: BY MONDAY NIGHT, THE REMNANT COLD FRONT SHOULD
BE EXITING THE CWA AND LEAVING DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN ONCE AGAIN
BEHIND IT. THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC FLOW TURNS MORE BROAD AND SW THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD, INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS/EURO HINT AT ANOTHER POSSIBLE
FRONTAL PASSAGE BY MID-WEEK, INCREASING RAIN CHANCE PROBS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON ANY ORGANIZED SYSTEM AT THIS POINT. OVERALL,
THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE MORE UNSETTLED WITH MORE MOISTURE AND
POSSIBLE RAINFALL. THIS COULD IMPROVE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BUT IT'S
STILL TOO EARLY TO DRAW CONCLUSIONS. TEMP WISE, EXPECT WELL-ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A RETURN TO SPRING WEATHER ONCE AGAIN.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR AT THE TERMINALS THRU AT LEAST SUNSET,
EXCEPT AT KAVL. WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL REDUCE VSBY THERE TO 6-7
SM WITHIN DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER THIS MORNING, AND A BRIEF
RESTRICTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON
AS PLUME GROWS DIURNALLY AND IS ADVECTED INVOF THE FIELD. ABUNDANT
HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUDS ABOVE FL150 WILL BE SEEN AROUND THE REGION
TODAY WITH SHORTWAVE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. MECHANICAL LIFT WITHIN
INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING MVFR OR LOWER CLOUDS
TO SOME MOUNTAIN AREAS SW OF KAVL NEAR DAYBREAK BUT NOT LIKELY
AFFECTING ANY TAF TERMINAL; LIKEWISE ISOLATED SHRA COULD DEVELOP
IN THE FAR WESTERN NC MOUNTAINS AND ADVECT INTO TN AND OUT OF THE
AREA. SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP AFTER DAYBREAK WITH 15-20 KT GUSTS
THIS AFTN. TONIGHT, THE MECHANICAL LIFT WILL PERSIST, AND WITH
DEEPENING MOISTURE MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP,
THE BEST CHANCE BEING NEAR KAVL AND THE SC SITES AFTER 06Z. PROB30
FOR SHRA MAY BE ADDED TO THESE SITES AT NEXT ISSUANCE. A SIGNAL
FOR IFR IS SEEN AT KCLT AFTER 09Z SUN, BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
MADE ONLY A SCT MENTION AT LOW MVFR LEVEL.
OUTLOOK: A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS ON SUNDAY
AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY. DRYING IS EXPECTED FOR TUE, LIKELY LASTING
INTO WED.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
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