120
FXUS62 KGSP 300011
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
811 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
MOISTURE RETURNS AND BRINGS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. DRY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TUESDAY,
FOLLOWED BY AN UNSETTLED PATTERN MID-WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 6:15 PM EDT SATURDAY: WE'RE STILL SEEING SOME PATCHY SHOWERS
MAKE THEIR WAY NE OVER THE NC MTNS. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS HAVE PRO-
DUCED SOME HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES, BUT WE'VE YET TO SEE ANY LIGHTNING
OVER THE REGION. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DEVELOPING MORE OR LESS AHEAD
OF A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE ACROSS THE MTNS. MOST LOCATIONS THAT
GET ANY RAIN, LIKELY WON'T SEE MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED BETWEEN THE LARGE SFC
HIGH PARKED WELL OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT, AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO FORCE A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY, AS THE
MOISTURE GETS DEEPER. ONCE WE LOSE HEATING EARLY THIS EVENING, THIS
FLOW MIGHT NOT BE ESPECIALLY PRODUCTIVE AWAY FROM THE UPSLOPE ZONE
ALONG/NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT IN GA/SC/NC AND THE SOUTHERN
SLOPES OF THE BALSAMS UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE IMPROVES
EVEN MORE, OR MORE LIKELY, TOWARD THE PRE-DAWN HOURS SUNDAY AS LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE FINALLY KICKS IN SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT
IT. AWAY FROM THE MOUNTAINS, EXPECT A MORE HUMID BUT OTHERWISE
PRECIP-FREE NIGHT. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE SEASONALLY MILD WITH ALL
THE CLOUD COVER, PROBABLY ON THE ORDER OF 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THE HUMIDITY AND MOISTURE RECOVERY WILL BE HELPFUL.
THE CONVECTIVE RAIN SITUATION ONLY IMPROVES FROM THERE AS MOISTURE
GETS PROGRESSIVELY DEEPER THROUGH SUNDAY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT MORE
PRODUCTIVE. SEEMS STRANGE TO BE FORECASTING PRECIP PROBS CLIMBING
INTO THE LIKELY RANGE, BUT THAT APPEARS LIKE A GOOD BET EVEN
IF THE QPF ULTIMATELY IS MORE SPORADIC AND DISAPPOINTING. THE
BEST NEWS IS THAT THE CHANCES OF GETTING THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF
PRECIP HAPPEN TO BE WHERE WE COULD USE IT THE MOST, WHERE MOST OF
THE WILDFIRES HAVE BEEN BURNING. THE CAMS SHOW DECENT COVERAGE
MAKING SLOW WEST-TO-EAST PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY, SO NOT AN
ALL-DAY RAIN ANYWHERE, BUT THIS DETAIL HAS BEEN SMOOTHED OUT IN
THE BLEND. ONE INTERESTING POSSIBILITY IS THE HREF SHOWING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SFC-BASED CAPE GREATER THAN 500 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON,
SO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION OVER
THE UPSTATE AND WESTERN PIEDMONT. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ON THE ORDER
OF 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.
2) STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE AREA.
3) DRY WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING BY
MIDWEEK.
AS OF 150 PM SATURDAY: PICKING UP SUNDAY NIGHT, ONGOING SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS TREK TOWARD
THE CWA. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS LIFTS NE AND
PROVIDES THE NEXT FORCING MECHANISM FOR STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE
WEATHER. STRONG SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ADVECTS MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA AND BY SUNDAY NIGHT, INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND PRIMING THE
REGION FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON MONDAY. CURRENT GUIDANCE
INCREASES PWATS INTO THE 1-1.5 INCH RANGE AND BRINGS A DECENT SWATH
OF DPVA THROUGH WITH THE FRONT. BY MONDAY, THE COLD FRONT IS STILL
ON TRACK TO PUSH INTO THE CWA, BRINGING A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, LATEST GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE FROPA A BIT
AND ARE NOT IN COMPLETE AGREEMENT WITH TIMING, BUT STILL HAVE THE
LINE MOVING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD THE
FRONT TAKE ITS TIME AND MOVE IN TOO EARLY, THIS COULD INHIBIT SEVERE
POTENTIAL WITH INSTABILITY BECOMING MORE ROBUST AND AVAILABLE
FURTHER TO THE EAST. GUIDANCE FROM NBM/GFS SHOWS A FEW HUNDRED
JOULES OF SBCAPE AND MODEST SHEAR OF 40-50KTS. MODELED SOUNDINGS IN
THE NC PIEDMONT DO SHOW A BIT OF CURVATURE AND 0-1KM SRH IN THE 100-
150 RANGE, SUGGESTING THAT THERE IS A NONZERO CHANCE FOR AN
ENVIRONMENT THAT COULD SUPPORT TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS POINT,
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE AREA FOR POTENTIAL
SEVERE WEATHER, BUT THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT. AS
HIGHLIGHTED YESTERDAY, A POSSIBLE LIMITATION TO THE SEVERE POTENTIAL
HERE, OTHER THAN THE EARLIER TIMING OF THE FRONT ARRIVAL, IS IF
SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPS FURTHER SOUTH. THIS COULD INHIBIT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND DISRUPT THE NECESSARY INGREDIENTS FOR STRONGER
CONVECTION, LEAVING MORE SHOWERY STORMS BEHIND. ADDITIONALLY, QPF
RESPONSE CONTINUES TO BE LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE OVER THE SHORT PERIOD,
WHICH DOESN'T CONTRIBUTE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RELIEF FOR THE ONGOING
WILDFIRES. STORM TOTALS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT HAVE
ANYWHERE FROM 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES, WITH THE STRONGEST SIGNAL ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN NC MOUNTAINS AND NE GEORGIA COUNTIES. TRENDS ARE NOT
LOOKING BETTER AT THIS POINT, BUT WHERE RAIN IS NEEDED THE MOST IS
AT LEAST WHERE THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL. AFTER THE FROPA, HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS AND SHUNTS RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN A TICK ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH SOME RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEKEND.
2) TEMPERATURES WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY: BY TUESDAY NIGHT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
EXPANDS SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA AND SUPPRESSES RAIN CHANCES ONCE
AGAIN. THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC FLOW TURNS MORE QUASI-ZONAL INTO MID
WEEK BEFORE A TROUGH BUILDS IN ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND BRINGS MID-
LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE SW. MEANWHILE, AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD AGAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC AND AMPLIFY WESTWARD BY THE END OF
THE WEEK. WEDGED BETWEEN THESE TWO PATTERNS IS THE SOUTHEAST,
PRIMING THE AREA FOR CONSISTENT MOISTURE FETCH AS SURFACE WINDS
REMAIN S/SW. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS/EURO HINT AT ANOTHER
POSSIBLE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY MID-WEEK, HOWEVER THE HIGH PRESSURE
COULD SHUNT IT OFF TO THE NORTH. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR THE HIGH
AMPLIFIES, WHICH BOTH THE GFS/EURO HAVE MUCH FURTHER WEST THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS, COULD SHUNT SOME OF THE POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL.
EITHER WAY, THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WETTER THAN WHAT
HAS BEEN SEEN IN RECENT WEEKS. THERE REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
INTO HOW THESE AIR MASSES WILL INTERACT AND WHAT AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION COULD FALL ACROSS THE CWA. ADDITIONALLY, THE AREA
COULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE BUILDING RIDGE. OVERALL,
EXPECT WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A DECREASE IN CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: WE'RE STILL SEEING SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTI-
VITY AROUND KAVL THIS EVENING, BUT IT'S DOUBTFUL THAT THEY WILL
SEE ANY RESTRICTIONS FROM IT. OTHERWISE, DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT, ALLOWING SCT
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP AND MOVE IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE
MORNING. STILL EXPECT CIG RESTRICTIONS TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO
EAST BEGINNING AROUND 09Z OVER OUR FCST AREA WITH PREVAILING MVFR
FOR MOST SITES. THERE'S A DECENT CHANCE THAT SOME SITES WILL SEE
IFR CIGS BY MID TO LATE MORNING, BUT I WAS ONLY CONFIDENT ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE THIS AT KAVL AND KAND. I HAVE PROB30S FOR SHRA BEGINNING
BY LATE MORNING FOR MOST SITES, WITH PREVAILING SHRA FOR THE AFTN/
EARLY EVENING, WITH PRECIP TAKING A BIT LONGER TO REACH KCLT AND
KHKY. I ALSO INCLUDED A PROB30 FOR TSRA FOR THE UPSTATE TERMINALS
BEGINNING AROUND 19Z, AS THEY APPEAR TO HAVE SOME AMOUNT OF SFC-
BASED INSTABILITY PRESENT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY S TO SSW
THRU THE TAF PERIOD, WITH LOW-END GUSTS POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTN.
OUTLOOK: SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.
DRYING IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH MORE PRECIP POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RETURN AND THE CLOUD COVER IS HELPING TO
KEEP AFTERNOON MIXING DOWN. RH VALUES IN THE 30-40% RANGE ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASED RH AT THE HIGHER ELEVATION
AREAS WHERE WILDFIRES ARE ALREADY BEING FOUGHT. DUE TO THE ONGOING
CRITICALLY DRY FUELS, AN IMPACT-BASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS
CURRENTLY IN PLACE FOR NC THROUGH 8PM TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS OF 20-25
MPH, REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN NC MOUNTAINS AND NE GEORGIA
ZONES, BUT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
PRECIP ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS EVENING IS NOT LIKELY TO HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON ONGOING WILDFIRES. HOWEVER, CHANCES INCREASE
TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY, WITH THE BETTER ACCUMULATION RATES LIKELY TO
OCCUR SUNDAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...JPT/PM
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...JPT
FIRE WEATHER...CP
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