840
FXUS62 KGSP 310021
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
821 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE. DRY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TUESDAY, RESULTING IN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 7:15 PM EDT SUNDAY: A FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SCT SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY MOVING NE ACROSS MOST OF OUR NON-MTN ZONES.
WE'VE SEEN A HANDFUL OF LIGHTNING STRIKES FROM THIS ACTIVITY OVER
THE UPSTATE OVER THE PAST FEW HRS, BUT WITH INSTABILITY FIZZLING
GOING FORWARD, WE'LL LIKELY ONLY SEE SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT/
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, MOST OF THIS PRECIP ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST
OF OUR CWA OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS AS THE PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES
FURTHER EAST. ANY LINGERING SHOWER PRODUCTION WILL LIKELY RETREAT TO
THE SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE AREAS NEAR THE ESCARPMENT WHILE THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT REMAINS TO OUR WEST. HOPE-
FULLY THE AREAS AROUND THE ACTIVE FIRES WILL SEE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
THRU THE REST OF THE EVENING.
WHICH BRINGS US TO MONDAY. ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE, THE FORCING LOOKS
ADEQUATE AND MOISTURE DEEP ENOUGH TO WARRANT PRECIP PROBS RAMPING
UP INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THAT IS
MET WITH RESISTANCE IN THE CAM GUIDANCE, PARTICULARLY THE HRRR,
WHICH TREATS THE CONVECTION WITH NEGLECT AND PREJUDICE. QUITE
DISHEARTENING TO SEE THE HRRR ESSENTIALLY WASHING OUT THE
PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION AS IT REACHES THE MTNS IN THE EARLY
MORNING. BUT, LIKE WE SAID ABOVE, THE FORCING WILL BE THERE,
SO THE PROBS WILL BE KEPT HIGH AND PERHAPS THE OTHER CAMS THAT
SHOW THE BETTER COVERAGE WILL BE MORE CORRECT. AS TO THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL, THE 12Z RUN OF THE HREF LOOKS RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE
AND UNINSPIRED. THE BETTER ORGANIZATION OF STORMS DIVES TO THE SOUTH
IN THE MORNING, AS WAS ALWAYS SUSPECTED, LEAVING US IN THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS TO WONDER IF STORMS WILL REDEVELOP. THE RAP MANAGES STILL
TO DEVELOP SFC-BASED CAPE OF 500-1500 J/KG AND SHEAR 30-40KT,
SO THERE REMAINS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS, BUT THE CAMS
DO NOT RESPOND TO THE EXTENT THAT ONE MIGHT HAVE EXPECTED. WE WILL
MONITOR LATER DEVELOPMENTS, BUT FOR NOW, THE BETTER CHANCES APPEAR
TO BE EAST AND SOUTH. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST LATE
IN THE DAY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BY ABOUT TEN DEGREES.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
1) DRY WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLE BY MIDWEEK.
2) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY.
AS OF 155 PM SUNDAY: THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA AND SHOULD BE CROSSING THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER THE FROPA,
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS AND SHUNTS RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY. THE
GENERAL SYNOPTIC FLOW TURNS MORE QUASI-ZONAL INTO MID WEEK BEFORE A
TROUGH BUILDS IN ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE MOVES IN
FROM THE SOUTH. PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAD AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND LIFTING NORTHWARD, TRAILING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, RECENT GUIDANCE FROM THE
GFS/EURO BOTH SHOW A STOUT RIDGE EXPANDING AND PERSISTING OVER THE
AREA FROM ABOUT MIDWEEK ONWARD. THIS IS TRENDING RAINFALL POTENTIAL
EVEN DRIER AS THE AREA OF BETTER LIFT/CONVERGENCE IS NOW OFF THE NW
OF THE CWA. THIS DOES LOWER QPF RESPONSE AND POPS DOWN INTO THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE AS CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING FOR RAIN POTENTIAL.
THESE HEIGHT RISES COULD SHUNT PRECIP CHANCES AND BRING TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND INTO THE NEXT. ONE
POSITIVE NOTE IS SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ADVECT
MORE MOISTURE, KEEPING RH VALUES WELL ABOVE ANY CRITICAL LEVELS.
TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE DRIEST DAY WITH RH VALUES IN THE 25%-35%
RANGE, BUT IMPROVING ONWARD.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE FORECAST HAS TRENDED DRIER, AS A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST
2) TEMPERATURES WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY: AS WAS THE CASE IN THE SHORT TERM, GUIDANCE
FROM THE GFS/EURO CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHERLY FLOW
REMAINS DOMINATE DURING THE TIME, SO MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE AREA.
THE RIDGE AXIS PUSHES WEST A BIT, SHUNTING ONCE AGAIN MOST OF THE
BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES OFF TO THE NORTH. BY DAY 7, MODELS HINT
AT THE RIDGE STARTING TO WEAKEN, BRINGING BACK RAIN CHANCES, BUT
THIS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE IT'S A WEEK AWAY. OVERALL, GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO TREND DRIER FOR THE AREA, KEEPING NEEDED RAINFALL AWAY
ONCE AGAIN. GIVEN THE MOISTURE IN THE REGION, WON'T RULE OUT A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS, SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE
EXTENDED. ADDITIONALLY, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE AREA COULD
HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE BUILDING RIDGE. OVERALL,
EXPECT WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE RAINFALL.
AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: A FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF SCT MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY MOVING NE ACROSS MOST OF OUR NON-MTN ZONES.
WE'VE SEEN A HANDFUL OF LIGHTNING STRIKES FROM THIS ACTIVITY IN
THE VICINITY OF OUR UPSTATE TERMINALS OVER THE PAST FEW HRS, BUT
WITH INSTABILITY DIMINISHING GOING FORWARD, WE'LL LIKELY ONLY SEE
SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, MOST OF THIS
PRECIP ACTIVITY SHOULD ALSO MOVE EAST OF OUR FCST AREA OVER THE NEXT
FEW HRS AS THE PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES EAST. MOST OF THE NEAR-
TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SPREAD LOW CLOUDS/IFR CIGS ACROSS MOST OF
OUR AREA BY MIDNIGHT OR SO AND KEEPS THEM IN PLACE INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THERE'S ALSO A DECENT CHANCE THAT AT LEAST THE UPSTATE
SITES WILL SEE LIFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING. THE MTNS
APPEAR MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE, BUT THERE'S STILL
A DECENT CHANCE THAT KAVL WILL SEE IFR CIGS THRU THE MORNING HRS.
OTHERWISE, THE MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS PROGGED
TO MOVE THRU OUR FCST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BE EAST
OF KCLT BY ROUGHLY 23Z. AS SUCH, I HAVE A 3 TO 4 HOUR WINDOW OF
PREVAILING SHRA WITH A TEMPO FOR TSRA FOR MOST TERMINALS WITH SOME
LINGERING VCSH TO END THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN SLY INTO
THE MORNING AND GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SSW AND THEN SW (WITH LOW-END
GUSTS) AS THE DAY WEARS ON AND THE MAIN FRONT MOVES THRU.
OUTLOOK: DRYING IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. SOME SCT SHOWERS AND THEIR
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...JPT/PM
SHORT TERM...CAC
LONG TERM...CAC
AVIATION...JPT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page