571
FXUS62 KGSP 311850
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
250 PM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TUESDAY AND A RIDGE BUILDS IN, RESULTING IN WELL-
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
1) SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THROUGH 23Z FOR NORTHEAST
GA/UPSTATE SC/PART OF NC.
AS OF 251 PM MONDAY: SVR TSTM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU 23Z
FOR NORTHEAST GA/UPSTATE SC, AND ROW OF ZONES ALONG NC/SC BORDER
INCLUDING MOST OF METRO CLT, THOUGH WE WILL BE ABLE TO START LOPPING
OFF ZONES TO THE WEST WITH THE CONVECTIVE LINE MAKING STEADY
EASTWARD PROGRESS OUT OF NORTHEAST GA INTO THE UPSTATE AT THIS
TIME. ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THIS LINE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DESTABILIZE
IN SPITE OF EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDINESS, WITH A PLUME OF SFC-BASED CAPE
CLIMBING INTO THE 1000-1500 RANGE, WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH FUEL TO
KEEP THE LINE GOING AND PERHAPS SUPPORT SOME TRANSIENT SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES GIVEN EXPECTED EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-40KT THRU LATE
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE MORE LINEAR ORGANIZATION AT THE TIME, SOME
LINE BREAKS WITH MESOVORTICES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. NOTE THAT A FEW
TORNADOES ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS THIS CONVECTION MAKES ITS WAY EAST,
MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE
MORNING CONVECTION. A FEW OF THE CAMS SHOW BRIEF ROTATING CORES
MAINLY ONCE THE ACTIVITY GETS FARTHER EAST TOWARD THE CHARLOTTE
METRO AREA. SLIGHTLY BETTER LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY IN THE VICINITY
OF THIS REMNANT BOUNDARY COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE BRIEF
TORNADO THREAT. THE CAMS GENERALLY SHOW THIS ACTIVITY MAKING IT
EAST OF THE FCST AREA AROUND 22Z TO 23Z, WITH THE TRAILING PRECIP
AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING OUT AS THE MAIN SHORT
WAVE SWEEPS THRU DURING THE EARLY-MID EVENING. PRECIP PROBS TAPER
QUICKLY AFTER THAT TO SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY ON THE TN BORDER.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, THE MODEL GUIDANCE DOESN'T DEPICT ANY
REALLY BIG PATTERN CHANGE. THE FLOW PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY FLAT
THRU TUESDAY WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER RIDGE MOVING IN. THIS
SUPPORTS A LARGE HIGH LOCATED WELL TO OUR NORTH BUT RIDGING DOWN
LATE TONIGHT AND THRU TUESDAY. TEMPS SHOULD DROP BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKY AND A NORTHERLY WIND. THE AIR
MASS WILL BE DRIER FOR SURE, BUT NOT OVERLY DRY, SO THE FCST RH
VALUES IN THE AFTERNOON REMAIN ABOVE THE LEVEL OF CONCERN. THAT
SHOULD BUY A LITTLE MORE TIME TO ASSESS THE IMPACT OF THE RECENT
RAIN ON THE FIRE SITUATION. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF A
CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL UNDER A SUNNY SKY.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
1) MOSTLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
2) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY.
AS OF 155 PM MONDAY: THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN PUTS A STRENGTHENING
TROUGH OUT WEST WITH AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS/EURO BOTH SHOW A STOUT RIDGE EXPANDING OVER
THE CWA WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUING HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS IS TRENDING RAINFALL POTENTIAL EVEN DRIER AS THE AREA OF BETTER
LIFT/CONVERGENCE IS OFF THE NW OF THE CWA. GIVEN THE SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW AND AMPLE MOISTURE, CANNOT RULE OUT A POP UP SHOWER
DURING THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER, THE LOWER QPF RESPONSE KEEPS
CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL LOW. WILL CAP POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE
RANGE. WITH THE MOISTURE INCREASING OVER THE AREA, THIS STAVES OFF
MOST FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS RH VALUES INCREASE. WINDS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS COULD BE BREEZY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A TIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE IS PRESENT AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NORTH. ADDITIONALLY, THESE HEIGHT RISES BRING
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND INTO THE
NEXT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
2) TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR RECORD HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
3) RAIN CHANCES MAY RETURN SUNDAY WITH A PATTERN CHANGE.
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY: HEIGHT RISES CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN
AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE FROM
THE GFS/EURO AMPLIFY A PERSISTENT RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST IN
RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE WEST. SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS
DOMINATE DURING THE TIME, SO MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE AREA. DESPITE
THE MOISTURE, MOST OF THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE CWA THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY, HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING DOWN FROM CANADA EXPANDS SOUTHWARD THIS IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN SINCE IT'S A WEEK AWAY, BUT THE SIGNALS DO POINT AT A
PATTERN CHANGE. GIVEN THE MOISTURE IN THE REGION, WON'T RULE OUT A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS, SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF
THE EXTENDED. ADDITIONALLY, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE AREA
COULD HAVE TEMPERATURES NEARING RECORDS THIS WEEKEND DEPENDING ON
THE STRENGTH OF THE BUILDING RIDGE.
AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: NO SHORTAGE OF RESTRICTIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON
AT ALL TERMINALS. RADAR TRENDS AND CAMS SHOW THE MAIN PUSH OF A
CONVECTIVE BAND CROSSING THE REGION BETWEEN NOW (WEST) AND ROUGHLY
23Z (EAST). ALL TERMINALS GET A TEMPO FOR 2-4 HOURS FOR TSRA, GIVEN
THE PROCLIVITY OF LIGHTNING. EXPECT BRIEF IFR/LIFR VIS/CIG AS THE
LINE OF STORMS MOVES ACROSS. HARD TO SAY HOW SEVERE THIS WILL BE
AT ANY TERMINAL, BUT A SVR WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU 23Z. AHEAD
OF THE LINE, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERLY WARM ADVECTION UPGLIDE REGIME OVER THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT/NRN UPSTATE. CIG CONTINUES TO IMPROVE TO MVFR
THERE, BUT WIND HAS BEEN SLOW TO MIX DOWN OCCASIONAL GUSTS FROM
THE S TO SW. ONCE THE LINE PASSES, WIND WILL SHIFT MORE SW TO W,
BUT THE REAL WIND SHIFT TO NW WILL PROBABLY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE END
OF THE TRAILING PRECIP AFTER 01Z TO 03Z. RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
CAN BE EXPECTED ONCE THE MAIN PRECIP EXITS TO THE EAST. VFR AT
ALL TERMINALS EAST OF THE MTNS FROM ROUGHLY SUNSET ONWARD. SOME
BRIEF UPSLOPE CLOUDINESS/SHOWERS COULD LINGER ON THE TN BORDER
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH A CIG RESTRICTION POSSIBLE AT
KAVL THRU DAYBREAK TUESDAY POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
TUESDAY WITH A N TO NE WIND AND ONLY SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS.
OUTLOOK: A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MOST LIKELY VFR FROM FRIDAY THRU THE
WEEKEND.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 04-03
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 88 1963 31 1936 64 1946 23 1936
KCLT 90 1946 42 1915 62 1986 26 2021
1946
KGSP 87 1967 44 1901 62 2014 27 2021
1963 1993
1946 1902
RECORDS FOR 04-04
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 83 1999 33 1891 61 1893 22 1936
1978
KCLT 87 1999 43 1911 63 1986 29 1936
1899 1945
1934
KGSP 88 1963 44 1936 62 1999 25 1975
1934
RECORDS FOR 04-05
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 86 1909 30 1891 60 2023 20 1944
1910
KCLT 88 1942 38 1891 62 1910 26 1891
KGSP 90 1934 43 1899 60 2023 25 1904
1888
RECORDS FOR 04-06
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 88 1967 36 1950 64 2023 22 1898
KCLT 90 2010 43 1931 67 2023 28 1891
1929
KGSP 88 2010 47 1950 65 2023 26 1904
1945
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...PM
CLIMATE...
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