825
FXUS62 KGSP 010014
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
814 PM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TUESDAY AND A RIDGE BUILDS IN, RESULTING IN WELL-
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 7:55 PM EDT MONDAY: THE MAIN LINE OF SHOWER AND TS ACTIVITY
IS NOW WELL TO OUR EAST WITH A TRAILING LINE OF SHOWERS MAKING ITS
WAY OVER THE NC MTNS. AS EXPECTED, THIS LINE OF SHOWERS HAS BEEN
DISSIPATING AS IT MOVED INTO OUR CWA FROM THE WEST. BASED ON THE
LATEST CAM RUNS, ITS DOUBTFUL THAT MUCH OF THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL SURVIVE EAST OF THE MTNS AS MOST OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT
FOR IT LIFTS NE OF OUR AREA.
OTHERWISE, IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM THE MODEL GUIDANCE DOESN'T
DEPICT ANY REALLY BIG PATTERN CHANGE. THE FLOW PATTERN REMAINS
RELATIVELY FLAT THRU TUESDAY WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER RIDGE
MOVING IN. THIS SUPPORTS A LARGE HIGH LOCATED WELL TO OUR NORTH BUT
RIDGING DOWN LATE TONIGHT AND THRU TUESDAY. TEMPS SHOULD DROP BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKY AND A NORTHERLY WIND.
THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRIER FOR SURE, BUT NOT OVERLY DRY, SO THE FCST
RH VALUES IN THE AFTERNOON REMAIN ABOVE THE LEVEL OF CONCERN. THAT
SHOULD BUY A LITTLE MORE TIME TO ASSESS THE IMPACT OF THE RECENT
RAIN ON THE FIRE SITUATION. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF A
CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL UNDER A SUNNY SKY.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
1) MOSTLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
2) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY.
AS OF 155 PM MONDAY: THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN PUTS A STRENGTHENING
TROUGH OUT WEST WITH AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS/EURO BOTH SHOW A STOUT RIDGE EXPANDING OVER
THE CWA WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUING HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS IS TRENDING RAINFALL POTENTIAL EVEN DRIER AS THE AREA OF BETTER
LIFT/CONVERGENCE IS OFF THE NW OF THE CWA. GIVEN THE SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW AND AMPLE MOISTURE, CANNOT RULE OUT A POP UP SHOWER
DURING THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER, THE LOWER QPF RESPONSE KEEPS
CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL LOW. WILL CAP POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE
RANGE. WITH THE MOISTURE INCREASING OVER THE AREA, THIS STAVES OFF
MOST FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS RH VALUES INCREASE. WINDS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS COULD BE BREEZY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A TIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE IS PRESENT AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NORTH. ADDITIONALLY, THESE HEIGHT RISES BRING
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND INTO THE
NEXT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
2) TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR RECORD HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
3) RAIN CHANCES MAY RETURN SUNDAY WITH A PATTERN CHANGE.
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY: HEIGHT RISES CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN
AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE FROM
THE GFS/EURO AMPLIFY A PERSISTENT RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST IN
RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE WEST. SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS
DOMINATE DURING THE TIME, SO MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE AREA. DESPITE
THE MOISTURE, MOST OF THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE CWA THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY, HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING DOWN FROM CANADA EXPANDS SOUTHWARD THIS IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN SINCE IT'S A WEEK AWAY, BUT THE SIGNALS DO POINT AT A
PATTERN CHANGE. GIVEN THE MOISTURE IN THE REGION, WON'T RULE OUT A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS, SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF
THE EXTENDED. ADDITIONALLY, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE AREA
COULD HAVE TEMPERATURES NEARING RECORDS THIS WEEKEND DEPENDING ON
THE STRENGTH OF THE BUILDING RIDGE.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: THE MAIN LINE OF SHOWER AND TS ACTIVITY IS
NOW TO OUR EAST WITH ALL OF OUR TAF SITES REPORTING VFR CONDITIONS.
A TRAILING LINE OF SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY OVER THE
NC MTNS AND MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT KAVL. AS SUCH, I INCLUDED A VCSH
FROM ROUGHLY 01 TO 03Z FOR THEM, BUT I THINK THEIR CIGS WILL REMAIN
LOW-END VFR. THESE CIGS COULD LINGER AT KAVL WELL INTO THE MORNING
AND COULD DROP BELOW 3000FT AT TIMES, HOWEVER I KEPT THEM AT 3500FT
FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE, SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY WITH FEW TO SCT HIGH CLOUDS. OUTSIDE OF
THE MTNS, WINDS WILL STEADILY VEER FROM SW TO NW LATER TONIGHT/
OVERNIGHT. THEY WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO NE BY EARLY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY GO SOUTH OF EAST BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. AT KAVL, WINDS WILL REMAIN NWLY WITH LOW-END GUSTS THRU
MID TO LATE MORNING. THEY SHOULD GO LIGHT AND VRB DURING THE
AFTERNOON TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK: A FEW SCT SHOWERS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY THRU THE WEEKEND.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 04-03
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 88 1963 31 1936 64 1946 23 1936
KCLT 90 1946 42 1915 62 1986 26 2021
1946
KGSP 87 1967 44 1901 62 2014 27 2021
1963 1993
1946 1902
RECORDS FOR 04-04
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 83 1999 33 1891 61 1893 22 1936
1978
KCLT 87 1999 43 1911 63 1986 29 1936
1899 1945
1934
KGSP 88 1963 44 1936 62 1999 25 1975
1934
RECORDS FOR 04-05
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 86 1909 30 1891 60 2023 20 1944
1910
KCLT 88 1942 38 1891 62 1910 26 1891
KGSP 90 1934 43 1899 60 2023 25 1904
1888
RECORDS FOR 04-06
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 88 1967 36 1950 64 2023 22 1898
KCLT 90 2010 43 1931 67 2023 28 1891
1929
KGSP 88 2010 47 1950 65 2023 26 1904
1945
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...JPT/PM
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...JPT
CLIMATE...CP
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