754
FXUS62 KGSP 012226
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
626 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES ARE IN STORE FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY, WITH THE RAIN CHANCES TAPERING OFF LATE THURSDAY.
DRY AND EXCEPTIONALLY WARM WEATHER END THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT BRINGS
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON SUNDAY, WITH DRIER AND COOLER
CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 620 PM EDT TUESDAY: NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED THANKS TO QUIET
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. CLEAR SKIES WILL
RETURN BRIEFLY THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING AS THE LAST PATCH OF CIRRUS
IS CURRENTLY TRACKING OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AS HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME EASTERLY AND MAINTAIN A STABLE
SFC LAYER. A SLUG OF LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, RESULTING IN A RAPID INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER AFTER MIDNIGHT, AS MOISTURE SWEPT OFF THE ATLANTIC BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. HI-RES MODELS DEPICT ONSET OF RAINFALL IN THE
HOURS LEADING UP TO DAWN...STARTING FROM THE SOUTH WHERE UPGLIDE
FLOW WILL INITIALLY BE FOCUSED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEVELOPING WEDGE. TEMPS WILL FALL TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE NC ZONES,
BUT MAY WIND UP A CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE SC ZONES,
AS THE CAD WEDGE DEVELOPS AND CLOUD COVER ARRIVES EARLY ENOUGH TO
OFFSET RADIATIVE COOLING.
ON WEDNESDAY, THIS TEMPERATURE DISPARITY WILL ONLY BE ENHANCED AS
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. BEST POP
IS STILL ADVERTISED ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT, AND IT'S THESE
ZONES THAT WILL SEE THE MOST IMPRESSIVE QPF - ON THE ORDER OF A
QUARTER TO A HALF INCH THROUGH THE END OF WEDNESDAY. OTHER ZONES
WILL SEE MUCH LESS - POTENTIALLY ONLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OF RAIN.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 200 PM TUE: MOIST UPSLOPE/UPGLIDE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES
WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ONGOING. SHOWERS TAPER OFF
OVERNIGHT AS THE FLOW WEAKENS. THE FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
THURSDAY, BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS REDEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. THE FLOW
WEAKENS AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING. A COLD FRONT
DROPS TOWARD THE AREA BUT STALLS OVER VA FRIDAY. THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW REMAINS WEAK, BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
THE CAD ERODES THURSDAY WITH THE WEAKER FLOW AND LESS PRECIP. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE AROUND 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
THURSDAY AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE WARM AIR MASS REMAINS
IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT STILL AROUND 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS FRIDAY AROUND 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL,
WITH 90S POSSIBLY OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 215 PM TUE: THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINING. A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS
AND HIGHS AROUND 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, KEEPING 90 DEGREES IN PLAY
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND GOOD FORCING. THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY
AND POSSIBLY STRONG SHEAR, BUT TOO EARLY TO TELL IF THERE'S A
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK. THE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
LOOKS TO BE LOW. LOWS REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WITH HIGHS 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY MORNING BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AFTERNOON WITH DRY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY. A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS MOVES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. LOWS 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT DROP TO 5 TO
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS AROUND NORMAL MONDAY
DROP TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR TUESDAY. IF THESE TRENDS
CONTINUE, THEN FROST/FREEZE MAY BECOME A CONCERN NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR ACROSS THE TERMINAL FORECAST AREA
TODAY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE DESCENDS OVER THE REGION. A LIGHT
NE WIND CONTINUES AT MANY SITES, BUT SHOULD BECOME SE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST.
GENERALLY EXPECT FEW/SKC TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING, AND
THEN BY MIDNIGHT, FOR VFR CEILINGS TO START EXPANDING OVER THE
UPSTATE, AND EVENTUALLY, THE ENTIRETY OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE DEFINITIVELY SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
BUT WILL GO BACK EASTERLY OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND ALLOW SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT SHORTLY
BEFORE DAYBREAK...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
OVER THE UPSTATE AND BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT. SITES IN THE UPSTATE
AS WELL AS KHKY RECEIVED A PROB30 FOR SHRA TO HANDLE THIS...BUT
COVERAGE IS QUESTIONABLE ENOUGH AT KCLT THAT ONLY A VCSH HAS BEEN
ADDED TO THE 18Z TAF.
OUTLOOK: A FEW SCT SHOWERS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL
LINGER INTO THURSDAY. IFR STRATUS AND FOG MAY SPREAD IN FROM
THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY MORNING. PREDOMINATELY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY THRU THE WEEKEND.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 04-03
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 88 1963 31 1936 64 1946 23 1936
KCLT 90 1946 42 1915 62 1986 26 2021
1946
KGSP 87 1967 44 1901 62 2014 27 2021
1963 1993
1946 1902
RECORDS FOR 04-04
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 83 1999 33 1891 61 1893 22 1936
1978
KCLT 87 1999 43 1911 63 1986 29 1936
1899 1945
1934
KGSP 88 1963 44 1936 62 1999 25 1975
1934
RECORDS FOR 04-05
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 86 1909 30 1891 60 2023 20 1944
1910
KCLT 88 1942 38 1891 62 1910 26 1891
KGSP 90 1934 43 1899 60 2023 25 1904
1888
RECORDS FOR 04-06
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 88 1967 36 1950 64 2023 22 1898
KCLT 90 2010 43 1931 67 2023 28 1891
1929
KGSP 88 2010 47 1950 65 2023 26 1904
1945
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...AR/MPR
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...MPR
CLIMATE...GSP
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