327
FXUS62 KGSP 050123
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
923 PM EDT SUN MAY 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY. ANOTHER UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
BY MID-WEEK, WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 920 PM EDT SUNDAY: NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. RADAR RETURNS HAVE A FEW MINIMAL SHOWERS ALONG THE NC/TN
BORDER, BUT NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE. SATELLITE SHOWS THE CLOUDS
SCATTERING OUT AND THE SKIES ARE BECOMING CLEARER EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE, WEATHER IS QUIET.
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WE WILL REMAIN UNDER THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THE UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND
OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. WE SHOULD BE IN THE DRY SLOT FOR THE MOST
PART OVERNIGHT, WITH DRIER AIR HAVING MOVED IN, WHICH SHOULD KEEP
MOST OF THE FOG CHANCES AT BAY. HOWEVER, THE SITUATION IS ALMOST
FALL-LIKE WITH THE UPPER LOW NEARBY, SO SOME THICKER FOG IN THE
LITTLE TN RIVER VALLEY WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE. LOW TEMPS WILL BE
ON THE ORDER OF FIVE DEGREES UNDER NORMAL. MONDAY LOOKS, ON THE
WHOLE, SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE REGION AND HIGH TEMPS 3-5 DEGREES COOLER THAN USUAL. MIGHT BE
A LITTLE BIT BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AS VORT CENTERS
ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND PROVIDE A BIT OF SUPPORT, SO PRECIP
CHANCES ARE MORE EXPANSIVE, BUT STILL CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY THE NRN MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 2:45 PM EDT SUNDAY, KEY MESSAGES:
1. TUESDAY IS STILL LOOKING MOSTLY DRY WITH NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
3. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPER-
ATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL UNDER INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
THE SHORT-TERM FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON TUESDAY WITH A CLOSED UPPER
LOW STILL CENTERED TO OUR NW OVER THE MID TO LOWER OH VALLEY. THE
LOW WILL EVENTUALLY OPEN BACK UP TO THE MEAN UPPER FLOW AND DISSIPATE
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD LATE WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, WEAK UPPER
RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SE FROM THE GULF. AT THE SFC, WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE ON THE UPSTREAM SIDE OF A LARGER SFC LOW WILL SPREAD
OVER OUR AREA AS THE PERIOD BEGINS. THIS SHOULD LIMIT ANY CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL ACROSS OUR AREA WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
LINGERING OVER THE NORTHERN NC MTNS. WIDESPREAD PRECIP CHANCES RETURN
ON WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS OVER THE FCST AREA, BUT IT REMAINS
UNCLEAR HOW QUICKLY THIS FRONT WILL PROGRESS NORTHWARD. OTHERWISE,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR-NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND LIKELY BELOW NORMAL
BY WEDNESDAY UNDER INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 2:25 PM EDT SUNDAY, KEY MESSAGES:
1. WIDESPREAD PRECIP CHANCES RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS OVER THE FCST AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES PERSIST EACH DAY
THRU THE WEEKEND.
2. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW FOR MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE LOCATION OF
THE FRONT.
THE EXTENDED FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON THURSDAY WITH CONFLUENT UPPER
FLOW WITHIN WHAT'S LEFT OF A DECAYING OMEGA BLOCK KEEPING WEAK SFC
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. ON THURS, ROBUST CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND TOWARDS OUR
AREA. THIS HIGH WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD AND TOWARDS
OUR CWA. AT THE SAME TIME, ANOTHER SFC LOW TRIES TO SPIN UP ALONG THE
ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE BY EARLY FRI. IT'S NOT CLEAR HOW LONG THIS
LOW MAY LINGER OVER OUR REGION, BUT IT COULD KEEP PRECIP CHANCES OVER
OUR AREA THRU MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. WITH THE POOR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY
CONTINUING AMONG THE LONG-RANGE MODELS, I KEPT A RELATIVELY LONG STRETCH
OF CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. IF THE SFC HIGH ENDS UP BEING
STRONGER AND ADVANCES FURTHER SOUTH BY THE WEEKEND, THINGS WILL LIKELY
BE DRIER. TEMPERATURES START OUT NEAR-NORMAL ON THURSDAY, BUT TREND
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR PREVAILS ACROSS MOST TERMINALS FOR THIS
TAF ISSUANCE. A COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION, LEAVING BEHIND IMPROVED
CONDITIONS. LINGERING SCATTERED CU STARTS TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET, LEAVING MOSTLY SCT/SKC FOR THE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR A FEW HOURS OF LOWER STRATUS OR BR IN THE MOUNTAINS, SO A TEMPO
AT KAVL FOR MVFR VSBY 09Z-12Z. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
OF IFR BUT WILL RE-EVALUATE FOR NEXT ISSUANCE. WINDS PREVAIL W/SW
AND REMAIN LIGHT. KCLT COULD HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END GUSTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR -SHRA AT KAVL
MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR A PROB30 AT THIS
TIME.
OUTLOOK: VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.
RESTRICTIONS RETURN FROM MID-WEEK ONWARD.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...CP/PM
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...CP/PM
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