979
FXUS62 KGSP 052317
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
717 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY. ANOTHER UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGHER CHANCES
FOR RAIN AT TIMES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 520 PM EDT MONDAY: NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME AS THE WEATHER REMAINS QUIET. SCATTERED STRATOCU WILL START TO
DIMINISH AS THE SUN GOES DOWN. A FEW WEAK SHOWERS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS ARE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA.
LOOKS LIKE ONE MORE DAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE OLD MID/UPPER
LOW, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PULL OUT TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE
UPPER OH VALLEY REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THE LAST OF THE VORTICITY
ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS LATE THIS EVENING,
AND THEN AFTER THAT, THE VORT WILL BE CHANNELED AND THE FORCING
MINIMAL. SO, PRECIP PROBS DIMINISH OVER THE MTNS THIS EVENING
AND THAT SHOULD JUST ABOUT DO IT. SKY WILL CLEAR OUT FOR THE MOST
PART OVERNIGHT, ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF SEASONALLY COOL LOW
TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR TUESDAY,
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND SKY WILL BE A
LITTLE CLEARER, THUS TEMPS WILL REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE
AFTERNOON. ALTOGETHER, NOT MUCH TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 2:25 PM EDT MONDAY, KEY MESSAGES:
1. PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND AMOUNTS HAVE TRENDED A BIT LOWER
FOR WEDNESDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED FOR
MOST OF THE AREA UNDER INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
3. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY AND INTO
FRIDAY.
THE SHORT-TERM FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON WEDNESDAY WITH A CLOSED
UPPER LOW STILL CENTERED TO OUR NORTH AND WHAT'S LEFT OF A DECAY-
ING OMEGA BLOCK TO OUR WEST. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, THE
UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT NE AND OPEN BACK UP TO THE NLY UPPER FLOW.
AT THE SAME TIME, WEAK UPPER RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SE
FROM THE GULF WHILE THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST GRADUALLY DRIFTS
EASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY OPENS BACK UP TO THE NLY FLOW. AT THE SFC,
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED JUST TO OUR NW AS THE PERIOD
BEGINS. AS WEDNESDAY PROGRESSES, A VERY BROAD AREA OF SFC DEFOR-
MATION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SAME TIME, DEEPER
MOISTURE TO OUR WEST WILL SPREAD OVER OUR AREA COURTESY OF THE WLY
FLOW ALOFT WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS OVER THE AREA. AS SUCH, WIDE-
SPREAD SHOWER CHANCES RETURN ON WED AND LINGER THRU THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF OUR FCST
AREA ON WED UNDER INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
ON THURS WITH THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF OUR CWA.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 2:15 PM EDT MONDAY, KEY MESSAGES:
1. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE THE
FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY. OTHERWISE, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
LINGER THRU THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
2. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW FOR MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER OUR REGION.
THE EXTENDED FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON FRIDAY WITH UPPER TROFING
AMPLIFYING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WHILE STEEP UPPER RIDGING
PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS, THE UPPER TROF WILL BRIEFLY MORPH INTO A CLOSED, H5 LOW
BEFORE LIFTING NE OVER NEW ENGLAND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER OUR
AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC, THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN STILL REMAINS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN, ESPECIALLY EARLY
IN THE PERIOD. ON FRIDAY, ROBUST CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND TOWARDS OUR AREA. AT THE SAME
TIME, A SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO SPIN UP SOMEWHERE OVER OUR REGION.
IT REMAINS UNCLEAR HOW QUICKLY THIS LOW WILL DEVELOP AND THEN LIFT
NORTH OF OUR AREA. THE BULK OF THE LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE DOES HAVE
THE SYSTEM LIFTING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY WITH
THE HIGH SPREADING OVER THE CWA FROM THE WEST. BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD EARLY NEXT WEEK, ANOTHER LOW TRIES TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE TO
OUR SOUTH BUT IT REMAINS UNCLEAR WHERE. TEMPERATURES START OUT JUST
BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW THRU
THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. A FEW SCATTERED CU ARE DIMINISHING LEAVING SKC AFTER SUNSET
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AT KAVL OVERNIGHT BUT
REMAINS WELL INTO THE VFR CATEGORY. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY VSBY ISSUES
WITH THE DRIER AIR FILTERING IN. WINDS ARE SLOW TO DECREASE WITH A
FEW LOW-END GUSTS SOME SITES, BUT SHOULD BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
KAVL STAYS NW THROUGH THE PERIOD, WHERE ELSEWHERE PREVAILS W/SW.
OUTLOOK: VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK BEFORE POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS
RETURN.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...CP/PM
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...CP
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