352
FXUS62 KGSP 060559
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
159 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY. ANOTHER UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN AT
TIMES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 145 AM TUE: SWIRL OF UPPER LOW IS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CENTERED NEAR CINCINNATI AT THIS HOUR. THE LOW WILL WOBBLE ITS WAY
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL
OCCUR OVER EAST TN AND THE NC MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE
OF THE LOW, WITH A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE RESPONSIBLE FOR SPOTTY
CLOUD COVER THERE; SKIES SHOULD TREND CLEARER BY AROUND DAYBREAK. A
DRY SFC HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE WILL EXPAND INTO THE AREA TODAY AS
THE LOW DEPARTS. A SHALLOW/SPOTTY CU FIELD LOOKS TO DEVELOP UNDER
THE ASSOCIATED INVERSION. POPS REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
THUS NO PRECIP MENTION IS MADE IN THE FCST. TEMPS WILL RISE BACK
CLOSER TO NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON BUT STILL WITH LOW HUMIDITY.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 2:25 PM EDT MONDAY, KEY MESSAGES:
1. PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND AMOUNTS HAVE TRENDED A BIT LOWER
FOR WEDNESDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED FOR
MOST OF THE AREA UNDER INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
3. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY AND INTO
FRIDAY.
THE SHORT-TERM FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON WEDNESDAY WITH A CLOSED
UPPER LOW STILL CENTERED TO OUR NORTH AND WHAT'S LEFT OF A DECAY-
ING OMEGA BLOCK TO OUR WEST. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, THE
UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT NE AND OPEN BACK UP TO THE NLY UPPER FLOW.
AT THE SAME TIME, WEAK UPPER RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SE
FROM THE GULF WHILE THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST GRADUALLY DRIFTS
EASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY OPENS BACK UP TO THE NLY FLOW. AT THE SFC,
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED JUST TO OUR NW AS THE PERIOD
BEGINS. AS WEDNESDAY PROGRESSES, A VERY BROAD AREA OF SFC DEFOR-
MATION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SAME TIME, DEEPER
MOISTURE TO OUR WEST WILL SPREAD OVER OUR AREA COURTESY OF THE WLY
FLOW ALOFT WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS OVER THE AREA. AS SUCH, WIDE-
SPREAD SHOWER CHANCES RETURN ON WED AND LINGER THRU THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF OUR FCST
AREA ON WED UNDER INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
ON THURS WITH THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF OUR CWA.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 2:15 PM EDT MONDAY, KEY MESSAGES:
1. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE THE
FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY. OTHERWISE, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
LINGER THRU THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
2. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW FOR MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER OUR REGION.
THE EXTENDED FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON FRIDAY WITH UPPER TROFING
AMPLIFYING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WHILE STEEP UPPER RIDGING
PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS, THE UPPER TROF WILL BRIEFLY MORPH INTO A CLOSED, H5 LOW
BEFORE LIFTING NE OVER NEW ENGLAND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER OUR
AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC, THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN STILL REMAINS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN, ESPECIALLY EARLY
IN THE PERIOD. ON FRIDAY, ROBUST CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND TOWARDS OUR AREA. AT THE SAME
TIME, A SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO SPIN UP SOMEWHERE OVER OUR REGION.
IT REMAINS UNCLEAR HOW QUICKLY THIS LOW WILL DEVELOP AND THEN LIFT
NORTH OF OUR AREA. THE BULK OF THE LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE DOES HAVE
THE SYSTEM LIFTING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY WITH
THE HIGH SPREADING OVER THE CWA FROM THE WEST. BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD EARLY NEXT WEEK, ANOTHER LOW TRIES TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE TO
OUR SOUTH BUT IT REMAINS UNCLEAR WHERE. TEMPERATURES START OUT JUST
BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW THRU
THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR ASIDE FROM FOG IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS
(INCLUDING KAVL). SMALL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND GENERALLY SIMILAR
PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST FOG IS SIMILARLY LIKELY TO YESTERDAY
MORNING BUT WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY DUE TO STRATOCU AT 060-080
PASSING BETWEEN NOW AND DAYBREAK. PREVAILED MVFR WITH IFR IN
TEMPO. OTHERWISE LARGELY SKC THRU DAYBREAK. KAVL WILL BE MAINLY
NW THRU THE PERIOD WHEN NOT CALM. KCLT SHOULD TREND NW BY THE
FIRST MORNING PUSH BUT OCCASIONAL WSW WINDS PROMPTED INCLUSION OF
AN EARLY TEMPO. DIURNAL CU WILL DEVELOP BY 15-16Z WELL INTO VFR
RANGE. EXCEPT FOR KAVL, WINDS BACK TO WSW OR SW PEAKING AT 8-10
KT DIURNALLY. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD TREND BACK
TO NW WHERE NOT CALMING. INCREASING CIRRUS TONIGHT MAKE FOG LESS
LIKELY OVERALL BUT CONFIDENCE LOW FOR RESTRICTIONS ANYWAY.
OUTLOOK: VFR EXPECTED THROUGH WED, BUT THERE APPEAR PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS WED NIGHT THRU SAT.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
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