681
FXUS62 KGSP 061916
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
316 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 2:25 PM EDT TUESDAY: A BROAD AREA OF SCT, FAIR-WX CUMULUS
HAS BLOSSOMED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. MOST SITES HAVE
BEEN REPORTING SPORADIC LOW-END GUSTS OVER THE PAST FEW HRS, BUT
THESE SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP-OUT
NEAR-NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW HUMIDITY.
OTHERWISE, A LARGE H5 LOW WILL WOBBLE ITS WAY EAST AND OVER NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD TOMORROW
EVENING, THE LOW WILL OPEN BACK UP AND GET ABSORBED BY NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER TROFING. OUR AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER FLATTENED UPPER
RIDGING THRU THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRA-
DUALLY DISSIPATE AND SHIFT EAST AS A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS OVER
THE FCST AREA FROM THE SW WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW PRO-
FILES TO MOISTEN FROM THE TOP DOWN WITH INCREASING CLOUDS SPREADING
OVER OUR AREA FROM THE SW OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING. SOME AMOUNT
OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE WED MORNING, HOWEVER
WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINING WEAK AND FAVORING MORE OF A SLY
RATHER THAN A NELY DIRECTION, THE SETUP WILL NOT BE IDEAL FOR WIDE-
SPREAD PRECIP GENERATION OVER OUR AREA TOMORROW. NONETHELESS, I
KEPT SOME HIGH-END CHANCE TO LOW-END LIKELY POPS OVER OUR SW ZONES
FOR TOMORROW AFTN/EVENING WITH DIMINISHING PRECIP CHANCES THE FUR-
THER NE YOU GO. AS FOR THUNDER CHANCES, THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE
IF ANY SFC-BASED INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR CWA TOMORROW, SO THUNDER
APPEARS UNLIKELY. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ROUGHLY 5
TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS OUR AREA UNDER INCREASING CLOUD
COVER.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 205 PM EDT TUESDAY: THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAMS PHASE
THURSDAY WITH AN ELONGATED TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID
SOUTH. THE TROUGH SPLITS ON FRIDAY INTO 2 UPPER LOWS, ONE DROPPING
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND ONE TO THE ARKLATEX. AT THE SURFACE, A
WAVY, WEAK FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE OH VALLEY REGION THURSDAY,
CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN STALLS TO OUR SOUTH ON FRIDAY.
ATLANTIC AND INTO THE CAROLINAS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE FRIDAY WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. SEVERE CHANCES ARE
LOW, BUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CAN'T BE RULED OUT WITH DECENT
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. BRIEF, HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN
ANY STORM BUT OVERALL FLOOD THREAT IS LOW. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT UP
TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WARM TO UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY DROP A
FEW DEGREES FOR FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 230 PM EDT TUESDAY: A WET PATTERN SETS UP FOR MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM. THE NORTHERN UPPER LOW QUICKLY MOVES EAST AS THE SOUTHERN LOW
DEEPENS AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLED TO OUR SOUTH. THIS BRINGS PERIODS OF MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT TO THE AREA EACH DAY. THE UPPER LOW LIFTS INTO MIDDLE TN
TUESDAY WITH A CONSOLIDATING SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
PERIODS OF MOIST, SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW COULD BE EXPECTED WITH CLOUDS
AND PERIODS OF RAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN A COLD AIR DAMMING-LIKE
CONFIGURATION WHICH COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY. THE CAD COULD ALSO
ERODE AS EARLY AS MONDAY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN
WEAK INSTABILITY. EROSION WOULD LOOK MORE LIKELY TUESDAY WITH THE
LOWS ON THE MOVE EASTWARD, LEADING TO INCREASING CONVECTIVE CHANCES.
WHETHER THIS WOULD LEAD TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE MORE LIKELY, BUT UPPER
LOWS ARE NOTORIOUSLY FICKLE, SO THIS IS UNCERTAIN AS WELL. NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WOULD BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND CREEPING BACK
UP TOWARD NORMAL BY TUESDAY.
AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU THE
18Z TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY BE AT KAND, WHERE
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE TERMINAL TOWARDS THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE THAT SCT SHOWERS WILL REACH
THE FCST AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS IS HANDLED WITH
VCSH AT THE TAF SITES AND A PROB30 AT KAND WHERE PRECIP CHANCES
ARE A BIT HIGHER THRU 18Z. OTHERWISE, EXPECT INCREASING CIRRUS
LATER TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT NORTH OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. LOWER
VFR CIGS WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD OVER THE AREA FROM THE SW TOWARDS
THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT KCLT, WINDS WILL REMAIN WLY WITH LOW-
END GUSTS THIS AFTN. THEY WILL EVENTUALLY GO LIGHT AND VRB LATER
TONIGHT AND THEN PICK UP MARGINALLY FROM THE S TO SW TOMORROW AFTN.
WINDS AT KHKY, KGSP, KGMU, AND KAND WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR EVOLUTION.
AT KAVL, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GO NLY AT SOME POINT THIS AFTN WITH
SPEEDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS. THEY SHOULD GO LIGHT AND VRB TO CALM
LATER TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY FAVOR A SLY DIRECTION TOWARDS THE END
OF THE PERIOD LATER TOMORROW MORNING.
OUTLOOK: LOWERING CLOUDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CHANCES
FOR SHRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS INCREASING AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JPT
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