250
FXUS62 KGSP 070127
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
927 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 925 PM EDT TUESDAY: NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED AS THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AND CIRRUS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL END UP NEAR NORMAL TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THANKS
TO THE INCREASING CLOUDS.
OTHERWISE, A LARGE H5 LOW WILL WOBBLE ITS WAY EAST AND OVER NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD TOMORROW
EVENING, THE LOW WILL OPEN BACK UP AND GET ABSORBED BY NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER TROFING. OUR AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER FLAT UPPER RIDGING
THRU THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AND SHIFT EAST AS A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS OVER THE FCST
AREA FROM THE SW WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW PROFILES TO
MOISTEN FROM THE TOP DOWN WITH INCREASING CLOUDS SPREADING OVER OUR
AREA FROM THE SW OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING. SOME AMOUNT OF
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE WED MORNING, HOWEVER WITH
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINING WEAK AND FAVORING MORE OF A SLY RATHER
THAN A NELY DIRECTION, THE SETUP WILL NOT BE IDEAL FOR WIDE-SPREAD
PRECIP GENERATION OVER OUR AREA TOMORROW. NONETHELESS, KEPT SOME
HIGH-END CHANCE TO LOW-END LIKELY POPS OVER OUR SW ZONES FOR
TOMORROW AFTN/EVENING WITH DIMINISHING PRECIP CHANCES THE FURTHER NE
YOU GO. AS FOR THUNDER CHANCES, THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE IF ANY
SFC-BASED INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR CWA TOMORROW, SO THUNDER APPEARS
UNLIKELY. TEMPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN A FEW TO SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL UNDER INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 205 PM EDT TUESDAY: THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAMS PHASE
THURSDAY WITH AN ELONGATED TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID
SOUTH. THE TROUGH SPLITS ON FRIDAY INTO 2 UPPER LOWS, ONE DROPPING
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND ONE TO THE ARKLATEX. AT THE SURFACE, A
WAVY, WEAK FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE OH VALLEY REGION THURSDAY,
CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN STALLS TO OUR SOUTH ON FRIDAY.
ATLANTIC AND INTO THE CAROLINAS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE FRIDAY WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. SEVERE CHANCES ARE
LOW, BUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CAN'T BE RULED OUT WITH DECENT
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. BRIEF, HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN
ANY STORM BUT OVERALL FLOOD THREAT IS LOW. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT UP
TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WARM TO UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY DROP A
FEW DEGREES FOR FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 230 PM EDT TUESDAY: A WET PATTERN SETS UP FOR MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM. THE NORTHERN UPPER LOW QUICKLY MOVES EAST AS THE SOUTHERN LOW
DEEPENS AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLED TO OUR SOUTH. THIS BRINGS PERIODS OF MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT TO THE AREA EACH DAY. THE UPPER LOW LIFTS INTO MIDDLE TN
TUESDAY WITH A CONSOLIDATING SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
PERIODS OF MOIST, SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW COULD BE EXPECTED WITH CLOUDS
AND PERIODS OF RAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN A COLD AIR DAMMING-LIKE
CONFIGURATION WHICH COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY. THE CAD COULD ALSO
ERODE AS EARLY AS MONDAY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN
WEAK INSTABILITY. EROSION WOULD LOOK MORE LIKELY TUESDAY WITH THE
LOWS ON THE MOVE EASTWARD, LEADING TO INCREASING CONVECTIVE CHANCES.
WHETHER THIS WOULD LEAD TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE MORE LIKELY, BUT UPPER
LOWS ARE NOTORIOUSLY FICKLE, SO THIS IS UNCERTAIN AS WELL. NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WOULD BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND CREEPING BACK
UP TOWARD NORMAL BY TUESDAY.
AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: DRY AND VFR THROUGH DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY BEFORE
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY DETERIORATE FROM SW TO NE WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. -SHRA WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON WEDNESDAY BUT MAY NOT HOLD TOGETHER TO REACH KHKY AND KCLT.
THUS, KEPT THESE TERMINALS DRY AND WENT WITH PROB30S FOR -SHRA AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE REMAINING TERMINALS. SHOULD SEE
-SHRA EXIT THE TERMINALS BY THE LATER AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS
WEDNESDAY. CIGS SHOULD DROP TO IFR TO MVFR LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY,
GRADUALLY IMPROVING TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. VFR MAY
RETURN TO KHKY AND KCLT BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE NW AT KAVL THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE TOGGLING S'LY BY MID-MORNING. WINDS EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS WILL GRADUALLY TURN N'LY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT
BEFORE TURNING SW'LY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY BE VRB AT TIMES
THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK: AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...AR/JPT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...AR
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