975
FXUS62 KGSP 290130
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
930 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A FRONT CROSSING OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. DRIER
WEATHER MOVES OVER OUR AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL WARM TO A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 928 PM WEDNESDAY: A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS
BUNCOMBE COUNTY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DRIFTING ACROSS EAST
TENNESSEE. OVERALL, COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE HEADING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE TO GRAZE THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
WITH NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES NEEDED.
A LARGE 500 MB LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST,
WHILE SOME HEIGHT RISES OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A MORE WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WITH DRY WORKING
IN AND HELPING SCOUR OUT THE REST OF THE COLD-AIR DAMMING WEDGE.
LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH CLEARING SKIES ALOFT,
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND IN THE NC PIEDMONT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
THURSDAY, LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, WITH THE FORECAST AREA BEING FULLY IN THE
WARM SECTOR. MORNING FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD MIX OUT MORE READILY
THAN TODAY, WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTN. TEMPS
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND MAINLY MID 80S IN THE PIEDMONT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW MODEST INSTABILITY WITH SOME CIN DUE
TO A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE CAMS SHOW FAIRLY
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION, AND NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OR
COVERAGE. A SHOTGUN CHC POP DURING THE PEAK DIURNAL HOURS LOOKS
GOOD. SEVERE CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN LOW.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
1) A FEW STRONG-TO-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT
2) BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY AND WARM INTO SATURDAY
3) MOSTLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS SATURDAY
AS OF 140 PM WEDNESDAY: BY THURSDAY NIGHT, THE PATTERN REMAINS
UNSETTLED AS GUIDANCE SHOWS A TROUGH AND UPPER LOW SWINGING
SOUTHWARD. A FEW REMNANT SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT LOOKING TO MAKE A RUN FOR THE CWA. BY FRIDAY,
INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER FOR A MORE ACTIVE DAY. AT THIS TIME,
THE FROPA LOOKS TO SWEEP THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT, BUT MODEL TRENDS
ARE CONVERGING TOWARD THE PEAK HEATING TIMEFRAME, ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS. CURRENT GUIDANCE HAVE INCREASED PARAMETERS, POINTING
AT THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA. MODELED SOUNDINGS HAS INCREASED THE BULK SHEAR
INTO THE 50-60KTS RANGE WITH SBCAPE ALSO CREEPING INTO THE 1000 J/KG
RANGE. SFC AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE ALSO IMPROVED, WHICH GIVES
MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. AT PRESENT, A LIMITATION TO
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. IF IT PUSHES INTO
THE AREA EARLIER ON FRIDAY, THE SEVERE RISK WOULD INCREASE FURTHER
WEST. SPC CURRENTLY HAS THE SLIGHT RISK JUST GRAZING THE EASTERN
FRINGE OF THE CWA. ALAS, IF THE FROPA SLOWS DOWN AND PASSES AFTER
PEAK HEATING, THIS COULD DECREASE THE SEVERE RISK. SO WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR AS THINGS WILL CHANGE. NOW ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH
THE AREA, MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE
MUCH QUIETER WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE (15-30%) FOR A FEW SHOWERS,
MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL
FOR THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES
1) GENERALLY DRY, WITH ONLY SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY
2) TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH MIDWEEK
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY: LOOKING AHEAD INTO SUNDAY, LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS/EURO HAS BACKED OFF ON THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN.
THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS MORE N/NW AS A QUASI OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN
CONTINUES TO EMERGE. RAIN CHANCES HAVE DECREASED, BUT WILL KEEP THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE MOUNTAINS GIVEN THE NW FLOW AND LIMITED
SURFACE MOISTURE. THE BETTER NEWS IS THAT THE DEVELOPING RIDGE
PROGRESSES EASTWARD BY MONDAY, BRINGING IN DRIER WEATHER WITH
AMPLIFYING HIGH PRESSURE. THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY ONWARD, OUTSIDE OF A FEW DIURNALLY
DRIVEN POP-UP SHOWERS, TYPICAL FOR THIS SUMMERTIME. GIVEN THE RISING
HEIGHTS, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. OVERNIGHT TEMPS GET WARMER BY MIDWEEK AS SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS INCREASE DEWPOINTS.
AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: PESKY MVFR CEILINGS HAVE HELD ON ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA WITH ANY IMPROVEMENT SLOWER THAN EXPECTED. HOWEVER, SOME
PROGRESS HAS BEEN NOTED AROUND THE EDGES OF THE LOW CLOUD DECK AND
MOST TERMINALS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A BRIEF WINDOW OF VFR LATER THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT. THEREAFTER, CONDITIONS DETERIORATE AS
ANOTHER LOW STRATUS DECK BUILDS IN ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY DENSE FOG. ALL TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS WITH MVFR TO LIFR VISIBILITY DEPENDING ON WHERE ANY FOG
DEVELOPS. ONCE AGAIN, IMPROVEMENT MAY BE SLOW IN THE MORNING WITH
VFR CONDITIONS FINALLY RETURNING LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT WHERE ANY GREATER IMPACTS OCCUR IS A LITTLE MURKY
RIGHT NOW. HAVE OPTED FOR PROB30S FOR NOW, BUT SOME TERMINALS MAY
NEED TEMPOS ONCE CONVECTIVE TRENDS BECOME CLEAR.
OUTLOOK: SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...ARK/TW
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...TW
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