374
FXUS62 KGSP 290603
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
203 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A FRONT CROSSING OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. DRIER
WEATHER MOVES OVER OUR AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL WARM TO A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 12:40 AM EDT THURSDAY: A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY MAKE THEIR WAY EASTWARD OVER THE NC MTNS AND FAR NE
GEORGIA AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
LINGER FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER, BUT I STILL EXPECT COVERAGE
TO DECREASE HEADING INTO MORNING. OTHERWISE, THE FCST REMAINS
ON TRACK WITH NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES NEEDED.
A LARGE 500 MB LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST,
WHILE SOME HEIGHT RISES OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A MORE WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WITH DRY WORKING
IN AND HELPING SCOUR OUT THE REST OF THE COLD-AIR DAMMING WEDGE.
LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH CLEARING SKIES ALOFT,
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND IN THE NC PIEDMONT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
ON THURSDAY, LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, WITH THE FORECAST AREA BEING FULLY IN THE
WARM SECTOR. MORNING FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD MIX OUT MORE READILY
THAN TODAY, WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTN. TEMPS
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND MAINLY MID 80S IN THE PIEDMONT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW MODEST INSTABILITY WITH SOME CIN DUE
TO A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE CAMS SHOW FAIRLY
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION, AND NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OR
COVERAGE. A SHOTGUN CHC POP DURING THE PEAK DIURNAL HOURS LOOKS
GOOD. SEVERE CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN LOW.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
1) A FEW STRONG-TO-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT
2) BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY AND WARM INTO SATURDAY
3) MOSTLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS SATURDAY
AS OF 140 PM WEDNESDAY: BY THURSDAY NIGHT, THE PATTERN REMAINS
UNSETTLED AS GUIDANCE SHOWS A TROUGH AND UPPER LOW SWINGING
SOUTHWARD. A FEW REMNANT SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT LOOKING TO MAKE A RUN FOR THE CWA. BY FRIDAY,
INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER FOR A MORE ACTIVE DAY. AT THIS TIME,
THE FROPA LOOKS TO SWEEP THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT, BUT MODEL TRENDS
ARE CONVERGING TOWARD THE PEAK HEATING TIMEFRAME, ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS. CURRENT GUIDANCE HAVE INCREASED PARAMETERS, POINTING
AT THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA. MODELED SOUNDINGS HAS INCREASED THE BULK SHEAR
INTO THE 50-60KTS RANGE WITH SBCAPE ALSO CREEPING INTO THE 1000 J/KG
RANGE. SFC AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE ALSO IMPROVED, WHICH GIVES
MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. AT PRESENT, A LIMITATION TO
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. IF IT PUSHES INTO
THE AREA EARLIER ON FRIDAY, THE SEVERE RISK WOULD INCREASE FURTHER
WEST. SPC CURRENTLY HAS THE SLIGHT RISK JUST GRAZING THE EASTERN
FRINGE OF THE CWA. ALAS, IF THE FROPA SLOWS DOWN AND PASSES AFTER
PEAK HEATING, THIS COULD DECREASE THE SEVERE RISK. SO WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR AS THINGS WILL CHANGE. NOW ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH
THE AREA, MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE
MUCH QUIETER WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE (15-30%) FOR A FEW SHOWERS,
MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL
FOR THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES
1) GENERALLY DRY, WITH ONLY SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY
2) TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH MIDWEEK
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY: LOOKING AHEAD INTO SUNDAY, LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS/EURO HAS BACKED OFF ON THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN.
THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS MORE N/NW AS A QUASI OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN
CONTINUES TO EMERGE. RAIN CHANCES HAVE DECREASED, BUT WILL KEEP THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE MOUNTAINS GIVEN THE NW FLOW AND LIMITED
SURFACE MOISTURE. THE BETTER NEWS IS THAT THE DEVELOPING RIDGE
PROGRESSES EASTWARD BY MONDAY, BRINGING IN DRIER WEATHER WITH
AMPLIFYING HIGH PRESSURE. THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY ONWARD, OUTSIDE OF A FEW DIURNALLY
DRIVEN POP-UP SHOWERS, TYPICAL FOR THIS SUMMERTIME. GIVEN THE RISING
HEIGHTS, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. OVERNIGHT TEMPS GET WARMER BY MIDWEEK AS SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS INCREASE DEWPOINTS.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LINGER AT A HANDFUL
OF TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION, A FEW SITES ARE ALREADY
REPORTING FOG AND LIFR CIGS. I STILL EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS, AS ANOTHER LOW STRATUS DECK BUILDS IN ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG AT MORE TERMINALS. IMPROVE-
MENT MAY BE SLOW LATER THIS MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS FINALLY RE-
TURNING BY THE LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. TIMING REMAINS
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, BUT IT'S LOOKING LIKE THE MOST ACTIVE WINDOW WILL
BE FROM ROUGHLY 18 TO 22Z FOR THE BULK OF OUR AREA. THUS, I CONVERTED
THE PROB30S FOR TSRA TO TEMPOS FOR THE ABOVE TIMEFRAME. ALSO, EXPECT
A PERIOD OF LINGERING SHOWERS LATER IN THE EVENING, WHICH I ACCOUNTED
FOR WITH PROB30S FOR -SHRA. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO CALM
THRU THE MORNING AND PICK UP MARGINALLY OUT OF THE SW TO WSW THIS AFTN.
AT KAVL, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VRB TO CALM THRU THE MORNING AND
FAVOR A NWLY TO WLY DIRECTION THIS AFTN/EVENING AND REMAIN 5KTS OR LESS.
OUTLOOK: SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
CONTINUE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JPT/TW
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...JPT
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