895
FXUS62 KGSP 291848
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
248 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A FRONT CROSSING OUR AREA TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR THE MOUNTAINS EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS. DRIER WEATHER MOVES OVER OUR AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL WARM
TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 230 PM EDT THURSDAY: A STRONG 500 MB SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY
CROSSING AL INTO GA, SPREADING AN AREA OF THICK MID CLOUDS WITH
EMBEDDED LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN INTO THE FORECAST AREA. DESPITE
THE CLOUDS, DEWPTS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S IS RESULTING IN MODEST
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA. DEEPER CONVECTION CAN BE SEEN STARTING
TO POP UP ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL GA, AND THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE TO
EXPAND INTO THE GA/SC PIEDMONT THRU THE AFTN HOURS. SEVERE CHANCES
LOOK TO REMAIN LOW, BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH
30-04 KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. HIGH-END CHC TO LIKELY POPS LOOKS TO
LINGER INTO THIS EVENING, UNTIL THE AXIS OF HTE UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CROSSES THE CWFA. DEBRIS CLOUDINESS SHOULD LARGLEY SHIFT
EAST AFTER 06Z, AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PLENTY OF LOW STRATUS AND
PATCHY FOG WILL FORM BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, MAINLY IN THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.
THE FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR A LINE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION
ENTERING THE NC MOUNTAINS FROM THE NW LATE MORNING OR AROUND MIDDAY
FRIDAY. MODERATE CAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
LINE, WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 50-60 KT. THE CAMS DISAGREE
SOMEWHAT ON WHETHER IT WILL BE MAINLY LINEAR, OR IF MORE DISCRETE
MODE OF STORMS WILL OCCUR. IT LOOKS LIKE A MIX OF MULTI-CELL
CLUSTERS AND SOME HYBRID/SUPERCELL STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. THE
TIMING LOOKS TO BE ROUGHLY FROM NOON TO 6 PM FOR GREATEST COVERAGE
AND SEVERE THREAT. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT, BUT A NON-ZERO TORNADO THREAT IN THE PIEDMONT WILL
EXIST, GIVEN 25-30 KT OF 0-1KM SHEAR AND LOW LCL HEIGHTS. WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY LATE MORNING THRU THE AFTN, MAINLY OUT OF THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST. HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
1) GUSTY WINDS FROM THE WNW BEHIND THE FRONT CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
2) SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS
3) TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO NORMAL AND GRADUALLY WARM
AS OF 130 PM THURSDAY: BY FRIDAY NIGHT, THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
DEPARTING THE CWA. GUIDANCE DOES PUT A FEW REMNANT SHOWERS LINGERING
IN THE MOUNTAINS, BUT SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE,
THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT THE FROPA LIFTS OFF TOWARD THE NE AND
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE MUCH QUIETER
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE (15-30%) FOR A FEW SHOWERS, MAINLY ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE IS LIMITED, BUT WITH THE NW FLOW ALOFT, ANY
MECHANICAL LIFTING ALONG THE APPALACHIANS COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF
SHOWER DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS, SO UNMENTIONABLE POPS REMAIN IN PLACE. ADDITIONALLY,
A TIGHTER 850MB GRADIENT WITH THE SLOW DEPARTING TROUGH BRINGS GUSTY
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHER GUSTS OF 20-30MPH IN THE
MOUNTAINS, THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA. BY
SUNDAY, THE TROUGH IS SLOW TO DEPART AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE THAT MAY OR MAY NOT BRING ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO THE MOUNTAINS. IT CONTINUES TO TREND DRIER, SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
WINDS LOOK TO DIMINISH SUNDAY AS WELL, KEEPING THE AREA GENERALLY
QUIET OUTSIDE OF A BRIEF SHOWER OR TWO. TEMPERATURES REBOUND QUICKLY
FROM THE COLD FRONT AND START TO GRADUALLY WARM.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO START THE WEEK AND MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS RETURN
2) TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS OF 150 PM THURSDAY: AFTER SUNDAY NIGHT, IT APPEAR THAT SUMMERTIME
IS ATTEMPTING TO LOAD. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS/EURO
DEVELOPS AND PARKS A PERSISTENT RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS LOOKS TO BRING IN DRIER WEATHER WITH
AMPLIFYING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
SUPPRESS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY ONWARD THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD. TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE SYNOPTIC
FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME MORE QUASI-ZONAL, BUT REMAINS BROAD. NOT MUCH
CHANCES OR PRECIP. GIVEN THE RISING HEIGHTS, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT TEMPS GET WARMER BY
MIDWEEK AS SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS INCREASE DEWPOINTS.
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST, AS A THICK LAYER
OF MID CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS SPREADING OVER THE
AREA DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY AND
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS AROUND LATE AFTN
INTO EARLY EVENING. BUT MOST OF THE STRONGER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO STAY SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. SHOWERS LINGER INTO THE EVENING,
BUT SHOULD TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE STILL HITTING LOW CIGS
HARD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, WITH IFR EXPECTED AFTER 06Z AND
LINGERING PAST 12Z. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED
FRIDAY MORNING, THEN A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE AREA FROM NW TO SE. THE LINE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
THRU THE MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY REACHING THE UPSTATE TAF SITES
BEFORE 18Z FRIDAY. THE STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY PUSH THRU THE REST
OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF THE SW,
BUT MAY BE VARIABLE WHEN THE STORMS ROLL THRU FRIDAY. THEN, WINDS
INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY EARLY AFTN.
OUTLOOK: DRIER, BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...ARK
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