722
FXUS62 KGSP 292339
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
739 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A FRONT CROSSING OUR AREA TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR THE MOUNTAINS EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS. DRIER WEATHER MOVES OVER OUR AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL WARM
TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 611 PM EDT THURSDAY: NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
THIS EVENING. Z500 SHORTWAVE IS NOW ANALYZED OVER CENTRAL GA,
WITH AN AXIS OF RAIN AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER PUSHES EAST INTO THE
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
PEAK HEATING TODAY HAS NOT REALLY MATERIALIZED, AT LEAST NOT OVER
GSP'S FORECAST AREA, BUT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS UPSTREAM, HIGH-END
CHC TO LIKELY POP LOOKS WARRANTED INTO THIS EVENING...UNTIL THE
AXIS OF THE UPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE CWA.
THEREAFTER...DEBRIS CLOUDINESS SHOULD LARGELY SHIFT EAST AFTER
06Z, AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PLENTY OF LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG
WILL FORM BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL, MAINLY IN THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWER TO MID
60S IN THE PIEDMONT.
THE FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR A LINE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION
ENTERING THE NC MOUNTAINS FROM THE NW LATE MORNING OR AROUND MIDDAY
FRIDAY. MODERATE CAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
LINE, WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 50-60 KT. THE CAMS DISAGREE
SOMEWHAT ON WHETHER IT WILL BE MAINLY LINEAR, OR IF MORE DISCRETE
MODE OF STORMS WILL OCCUR. IT LOOKS LIKE A MIX OF MULTI-CELL
CLUSTERS AND SOME HYBRID/SUPERCELL STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. THE
TIMING LOOKS TO BE ROUGHLY FROM NOON TO 6 PM FOR GREATEST COVERAGE
AND SEVERE THREAT. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT, BUT A NON-ZERO TORNADO THREAT IN THE PIEDMONT WILL
EXIST, GIVEN 25-30 KT OF 0-1KM SHEAR AND LOW LCL HEIGHTS. WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY LATE MORNING THRU THE AFTN, MAINLY OUT OF THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST. HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
1) GUSTY WINDS FROM THE WNW BEHIND THE FRONT CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
2) SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS
3) TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO NORMAL AND GRADUALLY WARM
AS OF 130 PM THURSDAY: BY FRIDAY NIGHT, THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
DEPARTING THE CWA. GUIDANCE DOES PUT A FEW REMNANT SHOWERS LINGERING
IN THE MOUNTAINS, BUT SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE,
THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT THE FROPA LIFTS OFF TOWARD THE NE AND
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE MUCH QUIETER
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE (15-30%) FOR A FEW SHOWERS, MAINLY ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE IS LIMITED, BUT WITH THE NW FLOW ALOFT, ANY
MECHANICAL LIFTING ALONG THE APPALACHIANS COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF
SHOWER DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS, SO UNMENTIONABLE POPS REMAIN IN PLACE. ADDITIONALLY,
A TIGHTER 850MB GRADIENT WITH THE SLOW DEPARTING TROUGH BRINGS GUSTY
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHER GUSTS OF 20-30MPH IN THE
MOUNTAINS, THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA. BY
SUNDAY, THE TROUGH IS SLOW TO DEPART AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE THAT MAY OR MAY NOT BRING ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO THE MOUNTAINS. IT CONTINUES TO TREND DRIER, SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
WINDS LOOK TO DIMINISH SUNDAY AS WELL, KEEPING THE AREA GENERALLY
QUIET OUTSIDE OF A BRIEF SHOWER OR TWO. TEMPERATURES REBOUND QUICKLY
FROM THE COLD FRONT AND START TO GRADUALLY WARM.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO START THE WEEK AND MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS RETURN
2) TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS OF 150 PM THURSDAY: AFTER SUNDAY NIGHT, IT APPEAR THAT SUMMERTIME
IS ATTEMPTING TO LOAD. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS/EURO
DEVELOPS AND PARKS A PERSISTENT RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS LOOKS TO BRING IN DRIER WEATHER WITH
AMPLIFYING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
SUPPRESS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY ONWARD THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD. TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE SYNOPTIC
FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME MORE QUASI-ZONAL, BUT REMAINS BROAD. NOT MUCH
CHANCES OR PRECIP. GIVEN THE RISING HEIGHTS, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT TEMPS GET WARMER BY
MIDWEEK AS SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS INCREASE DEWPOINTS.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: THE BULK OF CONVECTION APPEARS TO HAVE
SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA, WITH MOSTLY JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
LITTLE EMBEDDED THUNDER OVER THE UPSTATE AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
LINGERING STORMS OVER THE I-77 CORRIDOR WILL EXIT THE TERMINAL
FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE HOUR, AND SHOULDN'T AFFECT ANY OF THE TAF
SITES BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. BIG STORY FOR THE OVERNIGHT REMAINS THE
POSSIBILITY OF WIDESPREAD LOW CEILINGS...WITH THE BULK OF GUIDANCE
NOW INDICATING THAT IFR TO LIFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST
OF THE TFA AFTER MIDNIGHT...TO AT LEAST INTERMITTENTLY AFFECT ALL
SIX TAF SITES. IT MAY TAKE A BIT TO CLEAR OUT AFTER DAYBREAK,
BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY...AFTER WHICH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIG ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST,
BEGINNING BY LATE MORNING / EARLY AFTERNOON, AND EXITING TO THE EAST
BY MID-EVENING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF THE SW THROUGH
THE PERIOD, AND WILL BE GUSTY FOR MUCH OF THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY,
BUT WILL QUIET DOWN AND BECOME MORE W AFTER NIGHTFALL FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK: DRIER, BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH
PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEK.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...ARK/MPR
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...MPR
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