267
FXUS62 KGSP 310533
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
133 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. ANOTHER FRONT STALLS OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, KEEPING A CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEN RISE TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL
NEXT WEEK AS A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS RETURNS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 130 AM EDT SATURDAY: CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE MOIST NW FLOW. A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
ALSO POSSIBLE. GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH
LIGHTER WINDS ELSEWHERE. LOWS IN THE 50S.
HEADING INTO SATURDAY, A PIECE OF ENERGY AND ACCOMPANYING BELT OF
ENHANCED WINDS WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS IT DIVES
INTO THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE APPALACHIANS.
THIS WILL SEND A SECONDARY REINFORCING FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH WITH A BOUNDARY LAID OUT FROM NORTHERN KENTUCKY INTO
SOUTHERN VIRGINIA. A RETURN OF UPPER FORCING IN CONCERT WITH A PLUME
OF MOISTURE POOLED AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD HELP INSTIGATE A BAND
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. CAMS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS ACTIVITY
WILL EXTEND FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT. LOWER FREEZING LEVELS AND SLIGHTLY BETTER LAPSE
RATES WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS WITH ANY DEEPER CONVECTIVE CORES, BUT AN ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 115 PM FRIDAY...A LARGE UPPER VORTEX WILL WOBBLE EAST ACROSS
QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND, WITH THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS REACHING
THE EAST COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY. A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SE
ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND HELP SHARPEN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY. A SFC FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA FROM NW
TO SE, AND MAY BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. MODELS AGREE ON AROUND
1000-1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3RD OF THE CWFA WITH
ABOUT 30 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS WILL BE MARGINAL FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS, WITH MAINLY JUST SHOWERS AND GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
IN THE AFTN TO EARLY EVENING. A SHOTGUN CHC POP ACROSS THE AREA
ON THE NBM LOOKS GOOD. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEG BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE FIRST DAY OF JUNE, LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S AND HIGHS IN
THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT
THRU MONDAY, AS A MILD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. OVERALL, VERY PLEASANT WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH SUNNY SKIES, LIGHT WIND, AND MODEST HUMIDITY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 130 PM EDT FRIDAY: MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND AMPLIFYING TO THE EAST COAST THRU
WEDNESDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS AN EXCEPTION, CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW
NEAR THE OUTER BANKS TUESDAY, THEN DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTH. EITHER
WAY, DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
TEMPS ON A WARMING TREND TO A FEW DEG ABOVE NORMAL.
THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST THURSDAY, AS A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
SETS UP ACROSS THE CONUS. A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY, WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED OUT IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. INCREASING SWLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THE FRONT MAY BRING SOME GULF MOISTURE AND A RETURN OF CHC POPS
IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTN. THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY THRU
THURSDAY, SO THE NBM POPS MAY BE OVERDONE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO LAY OVER THE AREA AND RESULT IN MORE UNSETTLED WX FOR THE CWFA
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL,
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LOW VFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE DAY.
SOME OF THESE CLOUDS MAY SPILL EAST THIS MORNING BUT MORE LIKELY
THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY STORMS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, AND POSSIBLY KHKY, THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE TOO
LOW FOR A TAF MENTION AT THIS POINT. EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS TO
INCREASE BY MORNING AND BECOME GUSTY BY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE CAN'T
QUITE AGREE ON THE DIRECTION AT KCLT. HAVE GONE WITH A MODEL BLEND
AND KEEP IT WNW, BUT A DUE WEST CROSSWIND IS QUITE POSSIBLE. WINDS
DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING.
OUTLOOK: SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...MPR/RWH/TW
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...RWH
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