134
FXUS62 KGSP 010222
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1022 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
A FRONT STALLS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT, RESULTING IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY
IN THE MOUNTAINS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY,
THEN RISE TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK AS A WARM AND HUMID
AIR MASS RETURNS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1008 PM: RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WIDE BAND OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN A WIDE ARC ACROSS EASTERN KY, EXTREME NORTHEAST TN,
TO SOUTH CENTRAL NC...AND STRETCHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE GSP FORECAST AREA. THE BETTER CONVECTION WAS IN THE UPSTREAM
PORTION TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MTNS, BUT LIGHT RAIN WAS SURVIVING
AND REACHING THE GROUND IN SEVERAL PLACES ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS
AND WESTERN PIEDMONT. THIS WILL MORE THAN LIKELY CONTINUE WHILE
SLOWLY DIMINISHING THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS WEAK UPPER SUPPORT MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST, SO PRECIP PROBS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. CLOUD COVER WAS ALSO MORE EXTENSIVE THAN PLANNED, SO TEMPS
WERE NOT FALLING OFF AS FAST AS EXPECTED. MEANWHILE, A BLANKET OF
SMOKE ALOFT FROM THE WILDFIRES ON THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES OF AB/SK
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD AND HELP KEEP TEMPS A BIT WARMER
THAN THEY WOULD OTHERWISE BE.
OTHERWISE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN OVERNIGHT. NO
PRECIP EXPECTED LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT. ON SUNDAY, CONVERGENCE
NEAR THE FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCREASE IN 850-700MB
MOISTURE. THE CAP THAT IS IN PLACE TODAY LOOKS TO ERODE BEFORE
DIURNAL HEATING BEGINS, ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES WON'T BE ALL THAT
REMARKABLE. DEEP CONVECTION LOOKS MORE LIKELY OVERALL, WITH MODELS
SEEMINGLY KEYING ON THE CONVERGENCE ZONE IN DEPICTING A BAND OF
COVERAGE MAINLY ACROSS THE MIDDLE LATITUDES OF THE CWA. SHEAR WILL
BE WEAKER THAN TODAY, BUT WITH 0-6KM VALUES OF 30-40 KT LOOSELY
ORGANIZED MULTICELLS COULD DEVELOP. A SEVERE WIND THREAT COULD
RESULT PARTICULARLY ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT WHERE SOME DRY AIR
WILL BE PRESENT ALOFT. MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 215 PM EDT SATURDAY: THE SHORT TERM LOOKS DRY, AS A MILD
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION FROM THE NW. UPPER
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BEHIND A DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH, AND THIS
WILL SET UP A WARMING TREND THRU THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MONDAY
AND TUESDAY'S WEATHER LOOKS QUIET PLEASANT, WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS UNDER CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES, LIGHT WIND, AND MODEST
HUMIDITY. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S MONDAY,
AND ABOUT A CATEGORY WARMER ON TUESDAY. LOWS WILL IN THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND THE PIEDMONT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 225 PM EDT SATURDAY: AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE AT ITS PEAK
ON WEDNESDAY ALONG THE EAST COAST, WHILE A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE
DEVELOPS NEAR FL. THE 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO BE DRY AND KEEPS THE
WAVE OVER FL, WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN SHOW THE WAVE DRIFT
NORTH ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST ON THURSDAY. THIS WAVE WOULD LIKELY
BE A LITTLE TOO FAR EAST FOR ANY PRECIP IN OUR CWFA, AND THE NBM
CONTINUES TO TREND DRIER. SO GOING WITH BASICALLY A DRY FORECAST
WEDNESDAY THRU THURSDAY, EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHC IN THE MOUNTAINS,
WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN WITH LATER FORECASTS. TEMPS WILL
WARM TO A FEW DEG ABOVE NORMAL WITH INCREASING DEWPTS, MAKING IT
FEEL MORE LIKE EARLY SUMMER. FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL FRIDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND, WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE CWFA
FROM THE NW. POPS INCREASE INTO THE CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE THANKS
TO INCREASED DIURNAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD,
OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STILL
SEEING SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS FROM THE WSW AT ISSUANCE TIME,
BUT WITH SUNSET AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING SOMEWHAT,
THE GUSTS SHOULD END. THE BIGGEST PROBLEM WILL REMAIN THE WIND
DIRECTION AT KCLT, WHERE THE SW DIRECTION HAS PREVAILED LONGER
THAN EXPECTED. THE WIND PROFILE FROM THE TCLT RADAR HAS SHOWN A
GRADUAL LOWERING OF WINDS FROM THE WNW OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS,
AND THAT HAS ALSO BEEN SEEN ON ACARS SOUNDINGS, TO WHERE WINDS AT
1000 FEET AGL ARE NOW 270-280 DEGREES. SO, THE WIND SHIFT FROM
WSW TO WNW WILL BE INDICATED AT 01Z, THOUGH A PERIOD OF AN HOUR
OR TWO WITH A WESTERLY CROSS-WIND CAN BE EXPECTED. A THIN BLANKET
OF SMOKE ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPS WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT VALLEY FOG
OVERNIGHT, SO ONLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE INDICATED. AROUND SUNRISE, WIND
SHOULD SHIFT BACK TO SW, FOLLOWED BY CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
IN THE MIDDLS PART OF THE DAY, AT THE VFR LEVEL. GUIDANCE INDICATES
SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING,
AND THAT MAKES SENSE WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION
TO GIVE SOME FOCUS, SO ALL TERMINALS GET A PROB30 FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTLOOK: DRY HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...PM/RWH/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...PM
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