927
FXUS62 KGSP 271432
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1032 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
REACH OUR REGION BY TUESDAY THEN DRIFT SOUTH OF OUR AREA THROUGH MID
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1025 AM EDT FRIDAY: VALLEY FOG HAS CLEARED BUT SOME ALTOCU OR
CIRRUS IS MOVING NORTH ALONG THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY.
MORNING RAOBS AND MESOANALYSIS SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF DCAPE POTENTIAL
ALONG WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND LITTLE TO NO BULK SHEAR.
THEREFORE, EXPECT A SIMILAR DAY AS THURSDAY WITH CONVECTION INITIALLY
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WHERE COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHEST, THEN
INTO THE FOOTHILLS WITH LOWER COVERAGE OVER THE PIEDMONT. OVERALL
SEVERE CHANCES ARE LOWER THAN THU, BUT WITH THE HIGH DCAPES, ANY
STORM THAT CAN GET TALL ENOUGH TO ENTRAIN THE MID LEVEL DRY AIR HAS
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE DOWNBURST. STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING
WITH SOME TRAINING POSSIBLE, SO HEAVY RAIN CAN'T BE RULED OUT. HIGHS
LOOK ON TRACK.
OTHERWISE, THE BROAD FLOW AND TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN CONTINUES
AS THE WEEKEND GETS STARTED. SLIGHT HEIGHT FALLS AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND A VERY WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE, SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS THE
DOMINANT DIRECTION, KEEPING A SLOW UPTICK OF MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO
THE AREA. MEANWHILE, A FEW AREAS COULD SEE SOME PATCHY LOW-LEVEL
STRATUS OR FOG NEAR DAYBREAK GIVEN THE SMALLER DEWPOINT DEPRESSION
AND NEAR CALM WINDS. SHOULD CLEAR UP BY DAYBREAK. AS FOR FRIDAY,
EXPECT ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF POP-UP CONVECTION, TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY INCLUDING OVER 1000 J/KG OF DCAPE,
GIVING WAY FOR AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTING DOWNBURSTS IN ANY STORM
THAT DEVELOPS. SO THE PRIMARY THREAT REMAINS STRONG TO DAMAGING
WINDS. MOST OF THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS PEAK
HEATING PASSES. DEPENDING ON WHAT AREAS CAN GET RAIN, THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SOME MORE LOW-LEVEL STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG TONIGHT. AS
FAR AS TEMPERATURES, EXPECT A TICK COOLER THAN WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED
EARLIER IN THE WEEK. LOW 90S EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS DIPPING INTO THE LOW 70S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 250 AM EDT FRIDAY: A RATHER TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WILL BE
IN PLACE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM, WITH A SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH AND
ASSOCIATED RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND HIGHER-THAN-NORMAL LEVELS OF MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST,
WHILE A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALOFT WILL CREATE AN
OVERALL FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC REGIME FOR CONVECTION. THESE FACTORS
COMBINED WITH SEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS/ROBUST DESTABILIZATION
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL
COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH GENERAL
60-80 POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS, AND 40-60% CHANCES ELSEWHERE. VERY
WEAK WIND SHEAR/CLOUD-BEARING WINDS WILL RESULT IN SLOW
CELL MOVEMENT LESS THAN 10 KTS, WITH ATTENDANT POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. HOWEVER, A FEW PULSE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY, WHEN MODEL SIGNALS SUGGEST
SBCAPE WILL EXCEED 2500 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST TEMPS
ARE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 310 AM EDT FRIDAY: LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS
EXPECTED OVER THE REGION UNTIL TUESDAY, WITH BERMUDA HIGH AT THE
SURFACE SUPPORTING SOUTHERLY FLOW/PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, AND A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
PERSISTING ALOFT EARLY IN THE PERIOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF ABOVE-NORMAL
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS THEREFORE EXPECTED ON MONDAY, WITH
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SLOW-MOVING CELLS/LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
AND PERHAPS A HANDFUL OF PULSE SEVERE STORMS. BY LATE TUESDAY,
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH
THE FORECAST AREA, ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT
IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF ROBUST DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING. A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN MID-LEVEL
FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR AN UPTICK IN THE SEVERE STORM THREAT, WHILE
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE.
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT IS LOW REGARDING WHETHER THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL CLEAR THE AREA SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW LOWER THETA-E
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE CWA DURING MID-WEEK...POSSIBLY REDUCING
THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, THERE IS ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL
IN GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE TO ALLOW DIURNAL POPS TO DIMINISH TO
LEVELS MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY SUMMER BY THURSDAY. FORECAST TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR MOST TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SW WINDS PICK UP THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
AFTERNOON, EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF POP-UP SHOWERS AND TSRA. FOR
THIS, PROB30S AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KAVL WHERE CHANCES ARE HIGH ENOUGH
FOR A TEMPO. TSRA SHOULD DIMINISH CLOSER TO 00Z AGAIN. EXPECT
SIMILAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND MINIMAL
RESTRICTIONS. COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF BR/FG AT KAVL AT THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD, ESPECIALLY IF THE AREA RECEIVES RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO NEXT WEEK. FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH
MORNING IN THE USUAL MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AS WELL AS NEAR LAKES AND
RIVERS.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/RWH
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...CP/RWH
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