351
FXUS62 KGSP 272353
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
753 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
REACH OUR REGION BY TUESDAY THEN DRIFT SOUTH OF OUR AREA THROUGH MID
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 750 PM EDT FRIDAY: CAM GUIDANCE STILL INDICATE THAT SOME
LINGERING ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD LAST LONGER INTO THE EVENING
TIMEFRAME, SO EXTENDED POPS SLIGHTLY. STILL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION ONGOING, BUT CURRENT RADAR SHOWS COVERAGE SLOWLY WANING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. LINGERING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WILL
HANG OUT THROUGH THE EVENING AND SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT OUT OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH ONLY
MINOR TWEAKS MADE BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST MODEL
TRENDS.
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT WITH SOME FOG
POSSIBLE NEAR LAKES AND RIVERS, OR LOCATIONS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.
LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ELSEWHERE.
HEIGHTS ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER SATURDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LOW MOVES NORTH
INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. THE ATMOS BECOMES VERY UNSTABLE AGAIN
WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER SHEAR. DCAPE AND SFC DELTA THETA-E ARE NOT AS
HIGH AS PREVIOUS DAYS, BUT NOT ZERO. THEREFORE, THE OVERALL THREAT
OF SEVERE STORMS IS LOWER, BUT AN ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNBURST IS
POSSIBLE. PW VALUES REMAIN HIGH WITH SE STEERING FLOW AGAIN WHICH
KEEPS A LOW END THREAT OF TRAINING OF CELLS OR ANCHORING ALONG SE
FACING RIDGES. ISOLATED FLOODING CAN'T BE RULE OUT. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ELSEWHERE.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1215 PM FRIDAY: THE FORECAST CONTINUES TOMORROW NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH A BROAD BERMUDA HIGH JUST OFF THE EAST COAST AND
BROAD/FLAT UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. MORE
ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL BE DISPLACED NORTH ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER WHERE A TROUGH WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR ABOVE AVERAGE COVERAGE OF DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. COVERAGE MAY TICK HIGHER ON
MONDAY AS THE TROUGH DROPS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY AND HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY LOWER. AS WITH ANY SUMMERTIME CONVECTION, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND A FEW WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONG
STORMS. STEERING FLOW WILL BE WEAK AS WELL WITH VERY SLOW MOVING
STORMS THAT COULD POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING SHOULD
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN QUICKLY ACCUMULATE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1231 PM FRIDAY: PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
ALSO PASSING THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS. AN ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO DROP TOWARDS THE AREA WHICH WILL HELP SUPPORT THE
GREATEST RAIN CHANCES OF THE PERIOD. NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA DURING
PEAK HEATING ON TUESDAY. FLOW REMAINS WEAK, HOWEVER, BUT AT LEAST
LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS/LINEAR SEGMENTS SHOULD BE ABLE
TO ORGANIZE ALONG COMPOSITE COLD POOLS. THEREAFTER, FORECAST
CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO LOWER BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS GUIDANCE
DIVERGES WITH REGARDS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKES
IT. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WOULD RESULT IN A NOTABLE
DOWNTREND IN DIURNAL CONVECTION WITH JUST ISOLATED POTENTIAL. SHOULD
THE FRONT STALL ACROSS OR NEAR THE AREA, HOWEVER, ABOVE AVERAGE RAIN
CHANCES COULD CONTINUE. WILL KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST UNTIL GUIDANCE COMES INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST TERMINALS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING, INCLUDING RIGHT ON TOP OF KCLT AT
THE ISSUANCE OF THIS DISCUSSION. INCLUDED A TEMPO THROUGH 00Z
FOR TSRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS, WITH THE WIND SHIFT TO A
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BEHIND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT PUSHED IN
FROM THE EAST. IN THE 00Z UPDATE, PLACED A VCTS IN THE PREVAILING
LINE THROUGH 01Z FOR ANY LINGERING STORMS THAT LAST PAST 00Z,
BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THERE SHOULDN'T BE A DIRECT IMPACT
ON THE TERMINAL AFTER 00Z. PLACED A VCSH MENTION AT KAVL THROUGH
02Z AS WELL WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL HANGING OUT IN THE
MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING LINGERING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH STORMS WANING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. PUT 1SM
AND OVC002 TAF LINE AT KAVL STARTING AT 09Z SATURDAY FOR MOUNTAIN
VALLEY FOG/LOW STRATUS AS THERE IS ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE FOR THIS
TO HAPPEN ONCE AGAIN JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK, SIMILAR TO EARLY THIS
MORNING. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER THIS
EVENING AND PICK BACK UP BY MID-MORNING SATURDAY AND LAST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF A WIND SHIFT FROM AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING PEAK
HEATING ON SATURDAY ONCE AGAIN. PLACED A PROB30 AT ALL TAF SITES
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SUMMERTIME POP UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
OUTLOOK: DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO NEXT WEEK. FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE
EACH MORNING IN THE USUAL MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AS WELL AS NEAR LAKES
AND RIVERS.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...CAC/RWH
SHORT TERM...TW
LONG TERM...TW
AVIATION...CAC
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