800
FXUS62 KGSP 290723
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
323 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA ON TUESDAY
AND DRIER WEATHER MAY RETURN FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 215 AM EDT SUNDAY: SAME STORY, DIFFERENT DAY. THE REGION
REMAINS UNDER BROAD FLOW AND THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN
CONTINUES. THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH OFF THE EASTERN COASTLINE
AMPLIFIES WESTWARD, INCREASING MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE SOUTH.
GUIDANCE SHOWS AN UPTICK IN PWATS THROUGH THE PERIOD INTO THE 1.5-
1.75 RANGE, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. BY TONIGHT, DEWPOINTS
LOOK TO INCREASE INTO THE LOW 70S, BRINGING A BIT MORE OF THE MUGGY
FEEL. MEANWHILE OVERNIGHT, A FEW AREAS COULD SEE SOME PATCHY LOW-
LEVEL STRATUS OR FOG NEAR DAYBREAK, MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS. IF ANY SHOULD DEVELOP, EXPECT IT TO CLEAR AFTER DAYBREAK.
AS FOR SUNDAY, THE AREA REMAINS IN GENERAL THUNDER FROM THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER AS ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON POP-UP CONVECTION
ENSUES. A BIT OF A SURFACE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST, WHICH COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT TO THE MORE
TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS. HOWEVER, THE STEERING FLOW IS
NONEXISTENT AS WINDS ALOFT ARE EXTREMELY WEAK TO CALM. ONCE AGAIN AN
INVERTED-V ON MODELED SOUNDINGS SHOW AN ENVIRONMENT CAPABLE OF RAPID
EVAPORATIVE COOLING. THIS IS APPARENT WITH DCAPE VALUES NEARING 1000
J/KG, INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR STRONG WINDS OUT OF DEVELOPING
DOWNBURSTS. CANNOT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM, BUT IT WOULD MAINLY BE
FOR WINDS. MOST OF THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS
PEAK HEATING CEASES. DEPENDING ON WHAT AREAS CAN GET RAIN, THERE IS
A CHANCE FOR SOME MORE LOW-LEVEL STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG AGAIN
TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES,
LOW 90S EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE
LOW 70S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY: A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
COVERING THE SOUTHEAST WILL EVOLVE INTO MORE OF A TROUGH DURING
THE SHORT TERM, AS HEIGHTS FALL IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TRAVERSING THE NORTHEAST CONUS AND SOUTHEAST
CANADA. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND A BERMUDA HIGH SUPPLYING PLENTY
OF MOISTURE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF AROUND 1.75"...AND
STRONG INSOLATION ALLOWING THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE TO
THE TUNE OF 2000-3000 J/KG EACH DAY...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WITH LIKELY POPS
WARRANTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND 40-50% CHANCES ELSEWHERE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED TUESDAY,
AS LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH
HEIGHT FALLS, AND 70-90 POPS ARE WARRANTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...A FEW PULSE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY, WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY/ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE IN LIGHT
OF CONTINUED SLOW CELL MOVEMENT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KTS ON TUESDAY, SO SOME DEGREE OF MODEST
ORGANIZATION/CLUSTERING ALONG OUTFLOWS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE, WHICH
COMBINED WITH OVERALL HIGHER COVERAGE WILL YIELD AN UPTICK IN
THE SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL. ALTHOUGH CELL MOVEMENT WILL INCREASE
TUESDAY, HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME
THREAT FOR ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AND MIN TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN
CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY: UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY BECOME ESTABLISHED E=>S OF THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY IN THE EXTENDED...ALLOWING LOWER THETA-E/DRIER AIR
TO GRADUALLY FILTER INTO THE REGION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD LINGER ON
WEDNESDAY TO SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES AND PORTIONS OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH DRIER/LESS
UNSTABLE AIR SETTLING OVER THE AREA, THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK IS
EXPECTED TO SEE BELOW-NORMAL COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION...WITH
GENERAL 20-30 POPS ADVERTISED OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND 10-20%
CHANCES ELSEWHERE EACH AFTERNOON THU THROUGH SAT. TEMPS ARE MOSTLY
FORECAST AT 1-2 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
AT MOST SITES. SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW DAYS, CALM TO LIGHT VRB WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND PICKING UP AGAIN SLOWLY IN THE LATE MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE OFF TO THE WEST OF THE AREA ALLOWS FOR MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT LIGHT. KAVL REMAINS MOSTLY NW. ANOTHER ROUND
OF BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KAVL AND KHKY IN THE WEE HOURS THIS MORNING.
CONFIDENCE ISN'T HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVAIL AS THE AREA DID NOT RECEIVE
MUCH RAINFALL EARLIER IN THE DAY. SO WILL KEEP A TEMPO GOING FROM
09Z-12Z. SUNDAY AFTERNOON RINGS IN ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSRA, POSSIBLE ANYWHERE ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
PROB30S AGAIN AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE TSRA. ONCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CLEAR UP, ANOTHER CALM NIGHT TO ROUND OUT THIS TAF
FORECAST.
OUTLOOK: DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO NEXT WEEK. FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH
MORNING IN THE USUAL MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AS WELL AS NEAR LAKES AND
RIVERS.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...CP
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