857
FXUS62 KGSP 010606
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
206 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT, DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE
INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES REMAIN TYPICAL FOR
THE SUMMERTIME SEASON THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 200 AM: SOME SHOWERS LINGER THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE TN/NC BORDER. THESE ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE STEADILY DIMINISHING THROUGH DAYBREAK. DISSIPATING
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG WITH
PATCHY FOG ELSEWHERE, PARTICULARLY WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL LATE
YESTERDAY. LOWS NEAR NORMAL MOUNTAINS AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ELSEWHERE.
THE STAGNANT PATTERN FINALLY BEGINS BREAKING DOWN LATER TODAY AS
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP HIGH PW VALUES ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING
AN UPTICK IN BULK SHEAR. THE INCREASED CLOUDS AND LOWER THICKNESS
VALUES WILL HELP PUT HIGHS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MOUNTAINS
AND NEAR NORMAL ELSEWHERE. THIS WILL KEEP INSTABILITY SLIGHTLY
LOWER, BUT STILL REACHING AT LEAST THE MODERATE RANGE. DEEPER
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED AS WELL LIMITING DCAPE AND SFC DELTA THETA-E
VALUES. BUT GIVEN THE INCREASED FORCING, OVERALL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS HIGHER AS SOME WEAK ORGANIZATION MAY DEVELOP. ISOLATED
FLOOD THREAT REMAINS AS WELL AS STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE HIGHER
DESPITE FASTER CELL MOVEMENT.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 100 PM MONDAY: AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS THE SPINE
OF THE APPALACHIANS TUESDAY NIGHT AND SET UP ROUGHLY ALONG THE
EAST COAST WEDNESDAY THRU THURSDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
AMPLIFIES. THIS SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT THRU THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED, WITH BETTER
COVERAGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO. THE FRONT
PUSHES FURTHER SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY, RESULTING IN DRIER
CONDITIONS. ONLY VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS EXPECTED, MAINLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS, AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT AND LIMIT INSTABILITY. TEMPS
THURSDAY WILL BE A CATEGORY OR SO WARMER WITH LESS CLOUD COVER
THAN WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 130 PM MONDAY: RELATIVE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE
FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND (DRY FOR EARLY JULY). AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE OHIO VALLEY
AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL HELP SUPPRESS CONVECTION AND
KEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEAK. AN AXIS OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
EXTEND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC WEST TO THE MID-MS VALLEY, WHILE A
FRONT STALLS OUT OVER FL AND THE GULF. BELOW-CLIMO POPS IS IN THE
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. POPS TREND TOWARD CLIMO SUNDAY,
BUT THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER. THIS IS DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY ON A TROPICAL LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE STALLED FRONT
IN THE EASTERN GULF. THE 12Z GFS HAS COME IN MORE IN LINE WITH THE
ECMWF ON KEEPING ANY DISTURBANCE SHUNTED SOUTH. REGARDLESS OF WHAT
HAPPENS IN THE GULF, POPS SHOULD BEGIN TO RAMP UP TO MORE TYPICAL
MID-SUMMER LEVELS, AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. TEMPS WILL BE
CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE STREAMING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT THESE ARE VERY
UNLIKELY TO MAKE A DIRECT HIT ON ANY TAF SITE. THE PRIMARY IMMEDIATE
CONCERN IS THEREFORE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS
TOWARD DAYBREAK IN THE CONTINUED VERY MOIST CONDITIONS. SIMILAR
TO MONDAY MORNING, EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
AT KHKY AND KAVL CENTERED AROUND 12Z...WHICH IS HANDLED WITH
TEMPOS. THERE IS ALSO SOME HINT FROM THE LATEST GUIDANCE OF IFR
STRATUS POTENTIAL IN THE KCLT AREA LATER THIS MORNING, AND THIS
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE ENOUGH TO ADVERTISE A TEMPO FOR SCT009 THERE BETWEEN
11 AND 13Z. OTHERWISE, CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE IN OTHER AREAS DURING THAT TIME. CONVECTION WILL MOVE OFF
THE HIGH TERRAIN INTO THE PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS FROM MID-AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL MOVER OVER THE AREA
DURING THE EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. PROB30S FOR TSRA
ARE WARRANTED AT ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A TRANSITION TO
CATEGORICAL -SHRA AND VCTS THIS EVENING. SW WINDS OF 5-10 KTS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME GUSTS OF
15-20 KTS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DRIER AIR MOVING IN
THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT DIURNAL CONVECTION INTO THE WEEKEND,
WITH AT MOST ISOLATED ACTIVITY EXPECTED EACH DAY. FOG AND/OR LOW
STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING IN THE USUAL MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, AS
WELL AS NEAR LAKES AND RIVERS, AND WHERE SIGNIFICANT RAIN FELL
THE DAY BEFORE.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ARK/CP
NEAR TERM...JDL/RWH/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...JDL
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