587
FXUS62 KGSP 021051
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
651 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY WITH
DRIER WEATHER FOR THE INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN TYPICAL FOR THE SUMMERTIME SEASON THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN AT THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 150 AM: LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE AXIS OF
AN UPPER TROUGH ROUGHLY CENTERED NEAR THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS. DEEPER CONVECTION HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA, WITH JUST SOME LINGERING SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE TROUGH
AND ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT GRADUALLY ACROSS
THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY...MOVING TO OUR EAST BY THIS EVENING. MUCH
DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS,
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL FALL OFF THE CLIFF ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. IN FACT, GUIDANCE ALSO DRIES OUT
THE LOWER LEVELS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ENOUGH SUCH THAT THERE IS
LITTLE SBCAPE FORECAST ACROSS THERE THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, GOOD
DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...ALONG/EAST OF
SURFACE TROUGH...AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES...WHERE 60 TO 70 POPS ARE CARRIED
MAINLY ALONG/EAST OF I-77. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES DIMINISH QUICKLY
TOWARD THE WEST...WITH GENERAL 20-30% CHANCES ADVERTISED ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND AT MOST 10% PROBABILITIES ALONG THE TN/NC BORDER.
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A THREAT OF A PULSE SEVERE
STORM OR TWO IN EASTERN AREAS, BUT THE MAIN CONCERN WILL REMAIN
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AS ELEVATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND
DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN AREAS THROUGH
MID-AFTERNOON OR SO. MAX TEMPS WILL BE AROUND NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA...ALTHOUGH EASTERN LOCATIONS MAY SEE TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL OWING TO LINGERING CLOUD COVER. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE
MORE OR LESS DONE BY THIS EVENING, AS LOWER PWAT AIR OVERTAKES THE
ENTIRE CWA. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 130 AM WEDNESDAY: PICKING UP THURSDAY, A RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS AMPLIFIES AND STARTS TO SLIDE EASTWARD. IN RESPONSE, A
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN OVER THE AREA AND THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS TURN MORE NE AS THE HIGH REMAINS TO THE
NORTH OF THE CWA. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE, MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM, SHUNTING RAIN CHANCES. AT THIS
TIME, POPS REMAIN UNMENTIONABLE AND BELOW THE 15% THRESHOLD. WITH
THIS TIME OF YEAR, A STRAY SHOWER ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS
GIVEN THE DAYTIME HEATING IS POSSIBLE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW
GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, EXPECT
THE LOW 90S WITH THE HEAT INDEX PEAKING A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER FROM
THE LOWER DEWPOINTS. ALL IN ALL, A PLEASANT FORECAST TO KICK OFF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 120 AM WEDNESDAY: BY SATURDAY, THE PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR TO
THE SHORT TERM, QUIET. GUIDANCE SLOWLY SHIFTS THE HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE OFF THE COASTLINE THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY, KEEPING RAIN
CHANCES LESS THAN 15%. SOME OF THE MODELS TRY TO LIFT THIS TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SKIRTS IT ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST,
BUT THE CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THAT IT WOULD AFFECT THE CWA.POPS
START TO INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE (15-
35%) AHEAD OF RETURNING MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC. LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE SHOWS A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM MONDAY ONWARD. THE HIGHER POPS
REMAIN AS USUAL OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. MEANWHILE, TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD, GUIDANCE DOES PAINT A PICTURE OF AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE
OUT WEST THAT MAY OR MAY NOT SHIFT MORE EASTWARD. HIGHER HEIGHTS
MEANS AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES. CURRENTLY, GUIDANCE SHOWS POCKETS
OF 100+ HEAT INDEX IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES, INCLUDING CHARLOTTE BY
TUESDAY ONWARD. IT'S JULY AFTER ALL. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
LOOK TO SLOWLY INCREASE INTO NEXT WEEK. STILL, RELATIVELY TYPICAL
FOR SUMMERTIME.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: CIGS HAVE BEEN QUITE VARIABLE IN SPACE
AND TIME THIS MORNING, BUT CONDITIONS HAVE GENERALLY FAVORED
IFR...EXCEPT FOR KAVL, WHERE VFR HAS BEEN PERSISTING FOR SEVERAL
HOURS. EXPECT IFR TO CONTINUE UNTIL 14/15Z AT ALL OTHER SITES,
WITH A BRIEF TRANSITION TO MVFR EXPECTED BEFORE VFR PREVAILS THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, SHOWERS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING
IN COVERAGE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS WESTERN
NC...ESPECIALLY THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...AND THIS WARRANTS
VCSH AT ALL SITES THIS MORNING. AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EJECTS
OVER THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, THE POTENTIAL
FOR TSRA WILL INCREASE...MAINLY NEAR KCLT. WITH INSTABILITY BEING
MUTED DUE TO MORNING CLOUD COVER, CONFIDENCE IN A TS MOVING OVER THE
AIRFIELD IS LOW...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT A PROB30
FOR -TSRA FROM 15-21Z. CAN'T RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR PERHAPS A
TS AT THE OTHER SITES THIS AFTERNOON, BUT CHANCES ARE SLIGHT AND
THEREFORE NOT WORTHY OF A TAF MENTION. OTHER THAN SOME MOUNTAIN
VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS EARLY THU MORNING, VFR IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...FAVORING SW TODAY...BECOMING LIGHT/VRBL TONIGHT...THEN
LIGHT NE AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK: DRIER AIR MOVING IN THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT
DIURNAL CONVECTION INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH AT MOST ISOLATED ACTIVITY
EXPECTED EACH DAY. FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING
IN THE USUAL MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, AS WELL AS NEAR LAKES AND RIVERS,
AND WHERE SIGNIFICANT RAIN FELL THE DAY BEFORE.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...JDL
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