244
FXUS62 KGSP 021759
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
159 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY WITH
DRIER WEATHER FOR THE INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN TYPICAL FOR THE SUMMERTIME SEASON THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES RETURN AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 150 PM: ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY FIRED DEEPER
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE ALONG AND EAST OF UPPER TROUGH
AXIS, MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT, THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE
ASHING OUT AIDED BY THE PROGRESSIVE INFLUX OF MUCH LOWER PWAT
VALUES. SAVE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SHALLOW FOG DEVELOPMENT WHERE
TODAY'S RAINFALL OCCURS, A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT IS ON TAP WITH
THURSDAY MORNING MINIMUMS WITHIN A FEW DEG F EITHER SIDE OF CLIMO.
THE ADVECTION OF UNSEASONABLY LOW PWAT VALUES CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH VALUES LESS THAN 1.4 INCHES PROGGED TO ADVECT ALL THE
WAY TO THE SE FRINGES OF THE CWFA. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY CAP ANY
DEEP CONVECTIVE CHANCES TOMORROW AS PIEDMONT MAXIMUMS CLIMB INTO THE
LOWER 90S AND SFC DWPTS FALL BELOW 70.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 100 PM WEDNESDAY: WELCOME DRY WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE FOURTH
OF JULY. THIS IS THANKS TO AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE
OH VALLEY AND BRINGING SUBSIDENCE ATOP THE FORECAST AREA. DRY SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE IN FROM THE NORTH AND SHUNT MOISTURE TO OUR
SOUTH. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRAY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED GENERAL TSTM
OR TWO ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, BUT OTHERWISE, POPS WILL BE UNDER 10%
FRIDAY AFTN-EVE. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, BUT DEWPTS
WILL MIX OUT AND KEEP HEAT INDICES IN CHECK. LOWS WILL NEAR NORMAL.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY, AS SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE TN VALLEY. PERHAPS A SLIGHT UPTICK IN
POPS FROM FRIDAY, BUT STILL LARGELY ISOLATED AFTN TO EARLY EVENING
POP-UP SHOWERS AND A TSTM OR TWO IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPS WILL ALSO
BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY IN ANOTHER DECENT MID-SUMMER DAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 145 AM WEDNESDAY: MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE EASTERN
CONUS UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY WEAKENING LATE IN THE WEEKEND THRU
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SHORTWAVE ENERGY CARVES OUT A SHALLOW
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ALLOWS A WEAK COLD
FRONT TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE OH VALLEY MONDAY AND GETS CLOSE TO
THE CWFA BY WEDNESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE WEAKENING RIDGING
ALOFT AND INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW
DIURNALLY DRIVEN POPS TO GRADUALLY RAMP BACK UP TO AROUND CLIMO
BY MONDAY, AND POSSIBLY ABOVE CLIMO WITH SOLID MOUNTAIN COVERAGE
TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY,
WITH SOME INCREASE IN HUMIDITY. THIS MAY RESULT IN HEAT INDICES
CREEPING BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS CVRG AND
INTENSITY OF DEEP CONVECTION. CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS
CONCENTRATE SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY AROUND KCLT UNTIL ABOUT 20-21Z,
AND IN ADDITION, RADAR TRENDS HAVE LIMITED PCPN TO JUST SHOWERS, AT
LEAST FOR THE MOMENT. OTHERWISE, SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE JUST A TOKEN VCSH FOR THE UPSTATE TAFS AND KHKY.
DESPITE TODAY'S RAINFALL, THERE REMAINS LITTLE TO NO SUPPORT IN THE
12Z GUIDANCE FOR ANY VSBY RESTRICTIONS TO DEVELOP AT KCLT. THE
CONTINUED INFLUX OF DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS
ON THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK: DRIER AIR MOVING IN IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT DIURNAL
CONVECTION INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH AT MOST ISOLATED ACTIVITY EXPECTED
EACH DAY. FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING IN THE USUAL
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, AS WELL AS NEAR LAKES AND RIVERS, AND WHERE
SIGNIFICANT RAIN FELL THE DAY BEFORE.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...CSH
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...CSH
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