994  
FXUS62 KGSP 031031  
AFDGSP  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC  
631 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TODAY BRINGING  
DRIER WEATHER FOR THE INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES  
REMAIN TYPICAL FOR THE SUMMERTIME SEASON THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF  
NEXT WEEK. DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM  
CHANCES RETURN AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 630 AM: LEADING EDGE OF WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ATTENDING  
THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS PUSHED JUST S=>E OF THE  
FORECAST AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY, LOWER THETA-E AIR  
HAS FILTERED INTO THE NW HALF OF THE AREA, WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS  
IN THE LOWER/MID 60S OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MOUNTAINS AND  
FOOTHILLS. (ALTHOUGH THIS DRYING HAS NOT PRECLUDED DEVELOPMENT OF  
FOG/LOW STRATUS IN THE NC MOUNTAIN VALLEYS OF THE TN BORDER  
COUNTIES. THIS DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY FILTER THROUGH  
THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY, WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH  
WARMING MID-LEVEL TEMPS TO RESULT IN ROBUST DIURNAL INSTABILITY  
SHUNTING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN  
PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS, DIURNAL  
CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 0-2  
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 130 AM THURSDAY: INDEPENDENCE DAY AND THE WEEKEND LOOK TO BE  
RELATIVELY PLEASANT FOR SUMMER AND FIREWORKS. FLOW ALOFT REMAINS  
BROAD AS A WEAKENING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SLIDES EASTWARD.  
IN RESPONSE, A SURFACE HIGH PARKS ITSELF OVER THE AREA AND THE  
EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS TURN MORE NE AS  
THE HIGH REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE,  
MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM,  
SHUNTING MOST RAIN CHANCES. AT THIS TIME, POPS REMAIN UNMENTIONABLE  
FOR MOST OF THE AREAS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE (15-  
25%) DURING THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THIS TIME OF  
YEAR, A STRAY SHOWER ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS GIVEN THE DAYTIME  
HEATING IS POSSIBLE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF  
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. BY SATURDAY, THERE IS MUCH DISAGREEMENT IN THE  
MODELS FOR WHATEVER IS ATTEMPTING TO FORM ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST.  
THE GFS SHOWS A CLASSIC FUJIWHARA EFFECT AS IT FORMS TWO WEAK LOWS  
FIGHTING FOR SURVIVAL AROUND EACH OTHER. EITHER WAY, THE MODELS DO  
AGREE THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTH REMAINS STUBBORNLY IN  
PLACE OVER THE CWA AND WARDS AWAY THE PRECIP CHANCES. SO, NOTHING TO  
SWEAT ABOUT FOR THE WEEKEND. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, EXPECT THE LOW 90S  
WITH THE HEAT INDEX PEAKING A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER FROM THE LOWER  
DEWPOINTS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 120 AM THURSDAY: CLOSING OUT THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND  
WITH MUCH OF THE SAME WEATHER PATTERN THAT IT STARTED WITH, QUIET.  
GUIDANCE SLOWLY SHIFTS THE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OFF THE  
COASTLINE TO THE NORTH THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY, KEEPING A SLIGHT  
CHANCE (15-30%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE  
KEEPS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CHURNING OFF THE COASTLINE AND SLOWLY  
LIFTING IT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, IT  
LOOKS AS THOUGH THE GENERAL PATTERN WILL KEEP THE RAIN AWAY FROM THE  
CWA, AT LEAST FROM THIS SYSTEM. BY MONDAY AND ONWARD, LONG RANGE  
GUIDANCE SHOWS A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME DIURNALLY DRIVEN  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THE HIGHER POPS REMAIN AS USUAL  
OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. MEANWHILE, TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD,  
GUIDANCE DOES PAINT A PICTURE OF AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OUT WEST. IN  
RESPONSE, A DEEPENING TROUGH LOOKS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN  
PORTION OF THE CONUS, BLOCKING THE POTENTIAL HEAT DOME OUT WEST FROM  
MOVING OVERHEAD, AT LEAST FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER MONDAY,  
SOUTHERLY SURFACE MOISTURE ADVECTION RETURNS AND INCREASES THE  
DEWPOINTS. CURRENTLY, GUIDANCE SHOWS POCKETS OF 100+ HEAT INDEX IN  
THE SOUTHERN ZONES, INCLUDING CHARLOTTE BY TUESDAY ONWARD.  
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOK TO SLOWLY INCREASE INTO NEXT  
WEEK, BUT REMAIN RELATIVELY TYPICAL FOR SUMMERTIME.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT THE TAF  
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS ALONG THE EASTERN  
FRINGE OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF  
KCLT THIS MORNING, WHILE AREAS OF MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG/LOW STRATUS  
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE VALLEYS WEST AND NORTH OF  
KAVL. DRIER/LESS UNSTABLE AIR IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY, WHICH WILL  
LIMIT ANY DIURNAL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO "SPARSE-AT-MOST." THUS,  
NO NEED TO INCLUDE ANY CONVECTIVE MENTION IN THE FORECAST. LIGHT  
NE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY, BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT  
BEFORE RETURNING TO NE LATE FRI MORNING.  
 
OUTLOOK: DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE INHIBITED INTO  
THE WEEKEND, WITH AT MOST ISOLATED ACTIVITY FORECAST THROUGH  
SATURDAY. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO LEVELS MORE  
TYPICAL OF EARLY SUMMER SUNDAY/MONDAY. FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS  
POSSIBLE EACH MORNING, MAINLY IN THE USUAL MOUNTAIN VALLEYS,  
AS WELL AS NEAR LAKES AND RIVERS.  
 

 
   
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
GA...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
SC...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...CP  
NEAR TERM...JDL  
SHORT TERM...CP  
LONG TERM...CP  
AVIATION...JDL  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab SC Page
The Nexlab NC Page
The Nexlab GA Page Main Text Page