672
FXUS62 KGSP 031812
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
212 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE NATION GIVES OUR REGION
DRY WEATHER INTO THE INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN TYPICAL FOR THE SUMMERTIME SEASON THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE EAST ON SUNDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE. DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 130 PM: ENTRENCHED WITHIN AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AIRMASS, FEW-SCT
DAYTIME CU FIELD WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING, LEADING TO JUST SOME
CIRRUS DRIFTING BY TONIGHT. SEASONABLY MILD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEEN TO START OFF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE 03/12 UTC MODEL
RUN CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS RICHER PWAT VALUES WELL SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CWFA THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WE STILL CAN'T
RULE OUT DIRUNAL ISOLATED NC MOUNTAIN RIDGETOP SHOWERS, BUT
ESSENTIALLY, EXPECT AN EFFECTLY SUPPRESSED AFTERNOON FEATURING
PIEDMONT LOWER 90S ALBEIT WITH TUMBLING SFC DEPTS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 100 PM THURSDAY: AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE OH VALLEY
SATURDAY, THEN WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE MID-ATLANTIC. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED A LITTLE QUICKER WITH THIS PROGRESSION, BRINGING A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY 00Z MON. THIS HAS RESULTED IN MORE
UNCERTAINTY ON A POTENTIAL TROPICAL/COASTAL LOW SLOWLY DEVELOPING
ALONG A STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF THE CAROLINA COAST. THE 12Z NAM
AND CANADIAN DRIFT THE LOW N/NW INTO THE GA/SC COASTAL PLAIN. BUT
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO KEEP THE LOW DRIFTING NE ALONG
THE COAST. IN ANY CASE, THE TRENDS HAVE RESULTED IN AN UPTICK
IN POPS FOR SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT, WHERE 30-40%
ARE FEATURED DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FEATURE, AND THE CONFIDENCE IN THE POPS
SUNDAY ARE LOW. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE,
WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 115 PM THURSDAY: THE UPPER PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY AMPLIFY
WITH A LARGE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST AND A DEEPENING TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE TROUGH SHOULD EJECT WHATEVER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST OUT TO THE NE BY
EARLY MONDAY. SO A NEAR-CLIMO DIURNAL POP IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY
AFTN-EVE. POPS THEN START TO INCREASE EACH DAY THRU MIDWEEK, AS
THE DIGGING TROUGH ALLOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT TO SLIDE SOUTH THRU
THE OH VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE FRONT MAY STALL OUT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND PROVIDE ENHANCED MOISTURE AND LIFT
FOR CONVECTION FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AS SUCH, THE NBM POPS
ARE ABOVE CLIMO, WITH SOLID CHC AND LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA, HIGHEST
IN THE MOUNTAINS. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ABOVE NORMAL, AND WITH INCREASING MOISTURE/DEWPTS...HEAT INDICES MAY
PUSH INTO THE 100-105F RANGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT. AT
THIS TIME, IT DOESN'T APPEAR WE'LL NEED HEAT ADVISORIES FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR ALL TERMINAL
LOCATIONS. JUST A MIX OF CIRRUS AND DAYTIME CUMULUS THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH SFC WINDS REMAINING GENERALLY NE AND LESS THAN 10 KTS.
OUTLOOK: DIURNAL DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE INHIBITED AGAIN
ON SATURDAY WITH AT MOST, ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO LEVELS MORE TYPICAL OF
EARLY SUMMER SUNDAY/MONDAY. FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH
MORNING, MAINLY IN THE USUAL MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, AS WELL AS NEAR LAKES
AND RIVERS.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...CSH
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...CSH
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