156
FXUS62 KGSP 040632
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
232 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE NATION GIVES OUR REGION
DRY WEATHER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY TODAY INTO SATURDAY. MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE EAST ON SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE. DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. EXCEPT FOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY, THEY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1:55 AM EDT FRIDAY: CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET OVERNIGHT
AND THRU THE MORNING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR, IF NOT SLIGHTLY
ABOVE, CLIMATOLOGY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VRB TO CALM THRU
THE MORNING WITH FEW TO SCT HIGH CLOUDS.
BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR NORTH TODAY
AND WILL STEADILY SHIFT EAST AND OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME, WEAK LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF
THE SE COAST WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE ORGANIZED THRU THE NEAR-TERM PERIOD. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN
WILL ALLOW LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO STRENGTHEN FROM THE NE TODAY AND
KEEP THE HIGHER PWAT VALUES TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. WE CAN'T
RULE OUT ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE NC MTNS TODAY, BUT
THE REST OF OUR FCST AREA SHOULD REMAIN SUPPRESSED ENOUGH TO PRE-
VENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE, HIGH TEMPS SHOULD TOP-OUT
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 110 AM FRIDAY: AN UPPER RIDGE NOSES INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST SATURDAY, THEN WEAKENS ON SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES
THE GREAT LAKES. DRY HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
THEN WEAKENS ON SUNDAY AS A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW, POSSIBLE
TROPICAL CYCLONE, MOVES MOVES UP THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS MAY BRING
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST, WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION.
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FEATURE, AND THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE POPS SUNDAY ARE LOW. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL SATURDAY AND POTENTIALLY BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY WITH INCREASED
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED CONVECTION.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 130 AM FRIDAY: THE UPPER PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY AMPLIFY WITH A
LARGE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL
CROSS THE AREA HELPING PUSH THE COASTAL LOW/POTENTIAL TROPICAL
CYCLONE AWAY FROM THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH
TOWARD THE AREA WITH A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS MOVING ALONG
IT. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR THE AREA
WITH INCREASING, MAINLY DIURNAL POP THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN
FALL A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR THURSDAY. AS THE TEMPS INCREASE, DEW
POINTS DO AS WELL, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES TO
EXCEED 100 DEGREES. AT THIS TIME, IT DOESN'T APPEAR WE'LL NEED HEAT
ADVISORIES.
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU
THE 06Z TAF PERIOD WITH FEW TO SCT VFR CLOUDS THRU THE PERIOD.
PRECIP CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT AND VRB THRU THE OVERNIGHT AND THEN PICK
UP FROM THE NE DURING THE MORNING OUTSIDE THE MTNS. THEY WILL
BECOME MORE ENE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 5 AND
10 KTS. AT KAVL, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VRB TO CALM THRU
THE MORNING. THEY SHOULD PICK UP FROM THE EAST DURING THE AFTN
AND THEN GO LIGHT AND VRB AGAIN LATER TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MTNS
ON SATURDAY. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS
OUR AREA ON SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS
WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING, MAINLY IN THE MTN VALLEYS, AS WELL
AS NEAR LAKES AND RIVERS.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JPT
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