676
FXUS62 KGSP 041055
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
655 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE NATION GIVES OUR REGION
DRY WEATHER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY TODAY INTO SATURDAY. MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE EAST ON SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE. DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. EXCEPT FOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY, THEY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 6:25 AM EDT FRIDAY: CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET THRU THE
MORNING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR, IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE, CLIMA-
TOLOGY. WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO PICK UP FROM THE N TO NE ALREADY
THIS MORNING WITH FEW TO SCT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.
OTHERWISE, BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR
NORTH TODAY AND WILL STEADILY SHIFT EAST AND OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME, WEAK LOW PRESSURE
JUST OFF THE SE COAST WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE ORGANIZED THRU THE NEAR-TERM PERIOD. THIS SYNOPTIC
PATTERN WILL ALLOW LOW-LVL WINDS TO STRENGTHEN FROM THE NE TODAY
AND KEEP THE HIGHER PWAT VALUES TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. WE
CAN'T RULE OUT ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE NC MTNS TODAY,
BUT THE REST OF OUR FCST AREA SHOULD REMAIN SUPPRESSED ENOUGH TO
PREVENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE, HIGH TEMPS SHOULD TOP-
OUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 110 AM FRIDAY: AN UPPER RIDGE NOSES INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST SATURDAY, THEN WEAKENS ON SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES
THE GREAT LAKES. DRY HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
THEN WEAKENS ON SUNDAY AS A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW, POSSIBLE
TROPICAL CYCLONE, MOVES MOVES UP THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS MAY BRING
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST, WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION.
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FEATURE, AND THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE POPS SUNDAY ARE LOW. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL SATURDAY AND POTENTIALLY BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY WITH INCREASED
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED CONVECTION.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 130 AM FRIDAY: THE UPPER PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY AMPLIFY WITH A
LARGE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL
CROSS THE AREA HELPING PUSH THE COASTAL LOW/POTENTIAL TROPICAL
CYCLONE AWAY FROM THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH
TOWARD THE AREA WITH A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS MOVING ALONG
IT. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR THE AREA
WITH INCREASING, MAINLY DIURNAL POP THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN
FALL A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR THURSDAY. AS THE TEMPS INCREASE, DEW
POINTS DO AS WELL, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES TO
EXCEED 100 DEGREES. AT THIS TIME, IT DOESN'T APPEAR WE'LL NEED HEAT
ADVISORIES.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THRU
THE 12Z TAF PERIOD WITH FEW TO SCT VFR CLOUDS. PRECIP CHANCES
REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE CURRENT TAFS. WINDS WILL PICK
UP FROM THE NE THIS MORNING OUTSIDE THE MTNS. THEY WILL BECOME
MORE ENE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS.
AT KAVL, WINDS WILL GO FROM NWLY THIS MORNING TO ELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON, AND THEN LIGHT AND VRB AGAIN LATER TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MTNS
ON SATURDAY. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS
OUR AREA ON SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS
WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING, MAINLY IN THE MTN VALLEYS, AS WELL
AS NEAR LAKES AND RIVERS.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JPT
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