383
FXUS62 KGSP 050027
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
827 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ATOP THE REGION INTO SATURDAY WITH AN
INFLUX OF ATLANTIC TROPICAL MOISTURE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. HOT AND
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON MONDAY AND LINGER THROUGH
MIDWEEK FEATURING DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF NOON INDEPENDENCE DAY: UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS THROUGH SATURDAY. SFC HIGH
NOW OVER THE APPALACHIANS AND OH VALLEY IN TURN WILL CENTER
OFFSHORE. LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY NORTHEASTERLY
THRU THE PERIOD. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP DIURNALLY THIS
AFTERNOON BUT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION APPEARS TO LIMIT THE DEPTH OF
CONVECTION AND THUS KEEP PRECIP CHANCES VERY LOW. A FEW ISOLATED
CELLS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE SW NC MOUNTAINS WHERE THE INVERSION
IS WEAKEST AND WARRANTS A 15-20% POP. CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT
A SHOWER/STORM IN THE UPSTATE, BUT ANY SUCH ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SO
ISOLATED POP IS BEING KEPT BELOW 10% THERE.
INVEST AL92 LOOKS NOT TO HAVE ANY DIRECT SENSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR
CWA THRU THE PERIOD. SOME HI-RES MODELS DEPICT LOW STRATUS MAKING A
RUN AT THE EASTERN ZONES IN THE EARLY MORNING, BUT THAT LIKELY WOULD
DISSOLVE RELATIVELY QUICKLY AFTER DAYBREAK. SUBSIDENCE IS LIKELY TO
BE ENHANCED ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, SO POPS SATURDAY END UP
EVEN LOWER THAN TODAY, BELOW SLIGHT-CHANCE IN ALL ZONES. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD END UP SLIGHTLY COOLER, JUST ON THE WARM SIDE OF NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 120 PM FRIDAY: THE CWFA IS PROGGED TO BE WITHIN THE FAR
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF TROPICAL/SUB-T SYSTEM CIRCULATION ON SUNDAY. AS
IT STANDS NOW, BASED ON THE 12Z MODEL SUITE, WOULD EXPECT
ENCROACHMENT OF HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EXPANDING WWD ON SUNDAY. GIVEN THE REDUCED INSOLATION AND INCREASED
CHANCES FOR DEVELOPING SHOWER BANDS INTO THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT, HAVE
LOWER MAXT FOR SUNDAY, WITH PERHAPS JUST MID 80S ALONG THE EASTERN
FRINGES OF THE CWFA. VERY WELL MAY BE SUPPRESSED ALONG AND WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE TO PRECLUDE ANY SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS, WE'LL SEE.
THE SE CONUS UPPER RIDGING WITH STRENGTHEN SOME ON MONDAY, WITH VERY
WARM AIR SURGING BACK NE ACRS THE REGION, BUMPING MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE THE EARLY JULY CLIMO ALONG WITH A RETURN TO
MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL DEEP CONVECTIVE CHANCES.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY: UPPER RIDGING WILL LINGER ATOP THE REGION TO
START OFF THE PERIOD BEFORE BEGINNING TO BREAKDOWN IN RESPONSE TO
OHIO OR MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ENERGY TRANSLATING EASTWARD. EXPECT
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TO BE THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WEEK, FEATURING
APPARENT TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS AROUND 100 FOR PARTS OF THE
PIEDMONT. WITH THE TREND TOWARD A LESS SUPPRESSED ATMOSPHERE, CHANCY
TYPE POP FOR TUESDAY WILL INCREASE TO LIKELY PROBABILITIES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY. THE EASTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSITION TO A MORE ROBUST AND DYNAMIC LOOKING PATTERN THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WORKWEEK RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: E TO NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH THAT WAS ANCHORED OVER THE
NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC. WINDS HAVE GRADUALLY DIMINISHED
OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO AND THE 15-18 KT GUSTS THAT WAS
OBSERVED DURING THE AFTERNOON HAS ALREADY SUBSIDED WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY DECREASE TO 5 KT OR
LESS AFTER SUNSET. AVL AND HKY THE MOST LIKELY FOR WINDS TO GO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE (OR CALM) FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT. VFR IS STILL
FORECAST FOR ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT, BUT THERE IS AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE (20 PERCENT) FOR MVFR CIGS AT CLT LATE TONIGHT INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING WHEN A STRATUS DECK ADVANCES INLAND.
HOWEVER, MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS MARINE
LAYER ABOUT 50-75 MILES FROM CLT. LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR
VALLEY/RIVER FOG LATE TONIGHT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY WITH FEW TO SCT CUMULUS DECK AROUND 5-7 KFT AS WELL AS
HIGH-LEVEL CIRRUS. THE E-NE FLOW WILL BE AS STRONG, IF NOT 1-2
KT STRONGER, RESULTING IN SUSTAINED SPEEDS BETWEEN 8-13 KT.
GUSTS OF 15-20 KT ARE MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 15Z-23Z WHEN DAYTIME
MIXING IS STRONGEST. THERE IS A RISK FOR A DUE E WIND TO DEVELOP
AT CLT SATURDAY AFTERNOON LIKE IT DID THIS AFTERNOON. NOT
EXPECTED ANYTHING MORE THAN A ROUGE STORM IN THE MOUNTAINS ON
SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK: CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS
OUR AREA ON SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK
OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE, THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE OUTER
RAIN BANDS COULD APPROACH EASTERN TERMINALS, INCLUDING CLT LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WHILE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO STAY EAST OF US, MVFR RESTRICTIONS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING, MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS, AS WELL AS NEAR LAKES AND RIVERS.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...JRK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page