383  
FXUS62 KGSP 050027  
AFDGSP  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC  
827 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ATOP THE REGION INTO SATURDAY WITH AN  
INFLUX OF ATLANTIC TROPICAL MOISTURE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. HOT AND  
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON MONDAY AND LINGER THROUGH  
MIDWEEK FEATURING DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND  
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AS OF NOON INDEPENDENCE DAY: UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD  
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS THROUGH SATURDAY. SFC HIGH  
NOW OVER THE APPALACHIANS AND OH VALLEY IN TURN WILL CENTER  
OFFSHORE. LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY NORTHEASTERLY  
THRU THE PERIOD. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP DIURNALLY THIS  
AFTERNOON BUT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION APPEARS TO LIMIT THE DEPTH OF  
CONVECTION AND THUS KEEP PRECIP CHANCES VERY LOW. A FEW ISOLATED  
CELLS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE SW NC MOUNTAINS WHERE THE INVERSION  
IS WEAKEST AND WARRANTS A 15-20% POP. CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT  
A SHOWER/STORM IN THE UPSTATE, BUT ANY SUCH ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SO  
ISOLATED POP IS BEING KEPT BELOW 10% THERE.  
 
INVEST AL92 LOOKS NOT TO HAVE ANY DIRECT SENSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR  
CWA THRU THE PERIOD. SOME HI-RES MODELS DEPICT LOW STRATUS MAKING A  
RUN AT THE EASTERN ZONES IN THE EARLY MORNING, BUT THAT LIKELY WOULD  
DISSOLVE RELATIVELY QUICKLY AFTER DAYBREAK. SUBSIDENCE IS LIKELY TO  
BE ENHANCED ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, SO POPS SATURDAY END UP  
EVEN LOWER THAN TODAY, BELOW SLIGHT-CHANCE IN ALL ZONES. MAX TEMPS  
SHOULD END UP SLIGHTLY COOLER, JUST ON THE WARM SIDE OF NORMAL.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 120 PM FRIDAY: THE CWFA IS PROGGED TO BE WITHIN THE FAR  
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF TROPICAL/SUB-T SYSTEM CIRCULATION ON SUNDAY. AS  
IT STANDS NOW, BASED ON THE 12Z MODEL SUITE, WOULD EXPECT  
ENCROACHMENT OF HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD SATURDAY NIGHT AND  
EXPANDING WWD ON SUNDAY. GIVEN THE REDUCED INSOLATION AND INCREASED  
CHANCES FOR DEVELOPING SHOWER BANDS INTO THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT, HAVE  
LOWER MAXT FOR SUNDAY, WITH PERHAPS JUST MID 80S ALONG THE EASTERN  
FRINGES OF THE CWFA. VERY WELL MAY BE SUPPRESSED ALONG AND WEST OF  
THE BLUE RIDGE TO PRECLUDE ANY SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS, WE'LL SEE.  
THE SE CONUS UPPER RIDGING WITH STRENGTHEN SOME ON MONDAY, WITH VERY  
WARM AIR SURGING BACK NE ACRS THE REGION, BUMPING MAXIMUM  
TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE THE EARLY JULY CLIMO ALONG WITH A RETURN TO  
MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL DEEP CONVECTIVE CHANCES.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY: UPPER RIDGING WILL LINGER ATOP THE REGION TO  
START OFF THE PERIOD BEFORE BEGINNING TO BREAKDOWN IN RESPONSE TO  
OHIO OR MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ENERGY TRANSLATING EASTWARD. EXPECT  
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TO BE THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WEEK, FEATURING  
APPARENT TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS AROUND 100 FOR PARTS OF THE  
PIEDMONT. WITH THE TREND TOWARD A LESS SUPPRESSED ATMOSPHERE, CHANCY  
TYPE POP FOR TUESDAY WILL INCREASE TO LIKELY PROBABILITIES FOR  
SHOWERS AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY. THE EASTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO  
TRANSITION TO A MORE ROBUST AND DYNAMIC LOOKING PATTERN THROUGH THE  
LATTER HALF OF THE WORKWEEK RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: E TO NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE  
SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH THAT WAS ANCHORED OVER THE  
NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC. WINDS HAVE GRADUALLY DIMINISHED  
OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO AND THE 15-18 KT GUSTS THAT WAS  
OBSERVED DURING THE AFTERNOON HAS ALREADY SUBSIDED WITH THE LOSS  
OF DAYTIME HEATING. SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY DECREASE TO 5 KT OR  
LESS AFTER SUNSET. AVL AND HKY THE MOST LIKELY FOR WINDS TO GO  
LIGHT AND VARIABLE (OR CALM) FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT. VFR IS STILL  
FORECAST FOR ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT, BUT THERE IS AN OUTSIDE  
CHANCE (20 PERCENT) FOR MVFR CIGS AT CLT LATE TONIGHT INTO THE  
FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING WHEN A STRATUS DECK ADVANCES INLAND.  
HOWEVER, MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS MARINE  
LAYER ABOUT 50-75 MILES FROM CLT. LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR  
VALLEY/RIVER FOG LATE TONIGHT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON  
SATURDAY WITH FEW TO SCT CUMULUS DECK AROUND 5-7 KFT AS WELL AS  
HIGH-LEVEL CIRRUS. THE E-NE FLOW WILL BE AS STRONG, IF NOT 1-2  
KT STRONGER, RESULTING IN SUSTAINED SPEEDS BETWEEN 8-13 KT.  
GUSTS OF 15-20 KT ARE MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 15Z-23Z WHEN DAYTIME  
MIXING IS STRONGEST. THERE IS A RISK FOR A DUE E WIND TO DEVELOP  
AT CLT SATURDAY AFTERNOON LIKE IT DID THIS AFTERNOON. NOT  
EXPECTED ANYTHING MORE THAN A ROUGE STORM IN THE MOUNTAINS ON  
SATURDAY.  
 
OUTLOOK: CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS  
OUR AREA ON SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK  
OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE, THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE OUTER  
RAIN BANDS COULD APPROACH EASTERN TERMINALS, INCLUDING CLT LATE  
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WHILE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WITH THIS  
SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO STAY EAST OF US, MVFR RESTRICTIONS  
WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS  
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING, MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAIN  
VALLEYS, AS WELL AS NEAR LAKES AND RIVERS.  
 

 
   
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
GA...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
SC...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...CSH  
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY  
SHORT TERM...CSH  
LONG TERM...CSH  
AVIATION...JRK  
 
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