769  
FXUS62 KGSP 050107  
AFDGSP  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC  
907 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ATOP THE REGION INTO SATURDAY WITH AN  
INFLUX OF ATLANTIC TROPICAL MOISTURE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. HOT AND  
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON MONDAY AND LINGER THROUGH  
MIDWEEK FEATURING DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND  
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AS OF 9 PM INDEPENDENCE DAY: FORTUNATELY, MOTHER NATURE HAS  
DECIDE TO SIT THIS ONE OUT, WITH NO THUNDERSTORMS AT SUNSET AND  
LIMITED INSTABILITY TO PROVIDE THE FUEL FOR IT. JUST A FEW  
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE UPSTATE EARLY THIS  
EVENING - ONE CURRENTLY NEAR THE NW GREENVILLE-PICKENS COUNTY  
BODER AND ANOTHER IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF UNION COUNTY.  
WHILE AN ADDITIONAL ROGUE SHOWER OR TWO MAY DEVELOP THIS  
EVENING, COVERAGE WILL BE FAR TOO LOW (CLOSER TO 1%) TO  
EXPLICITLY HAVE RAIN IN THE FORECAST. CONDITIONS OVERALL REMAIN  
FAVORABLE FOR FIREWORKS DISPLAYS THIS EVENING, WITH NO  
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISTRUPTIONS EXPECTED. NONETHELESS, WE'LL  
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON RADAR JUST IN CASE ANY SNEAKY SHOWERS TRY TO  
STEAL THE SPOTLIGHT, BUT AT THIS POINT, IT LOOKS LIKE THE ONLY  
FIREWORKS TONIGHT WILL BE MANMADE.  
 
UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE  
CONUS THROUGH SATURDAY. SFC HIGH NOW OVER THE APPALACHIANS AND OH  
VALLEY IN TURN WILL CENTER OFFSHORE. LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD REMAIN  
GENERALLY NORTHEASTERLY THRU THE PERIOD. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL  
DEVELOP DIURNALLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION APPEARS  
TO LIMIT THE DEPTH OF CONVECTION AND THUS KEEP PRECIP CHANCES VERY  
LOW. A FEW ISOLATED CELLS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE SW NC MOUNTAINS  
WHERE THE INVERSION IS WEAKEST AND WARRANTS A 15-20% POP. CAN'T  
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER/STORM IN THE UPSTATE, BUT ANY SUCH  
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SO ISOLATED POP IS BEING KEPT BELOW 10% THERE.  
 
WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFF THE SC ON  
SATURDAY, DIRECT SENSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR CWA IS NOT EXPECTED. SOME  
HI-RES MODELS DEPICT LOW STRATUS MAKING A RUN AT THE EASTERN ZONES  
IN THE EARLY MORNING, BUT THAT LIKELY WOULD DISSOLVE RELATIVELY  
QUICKLY AFTER DAYBREAK. SUBSIDENCE IS LIKELY TO BE ENHANCED ON THE  
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, SO POPS SATURDAY END UP EVEN LOWER THAN  
TODAY, BELOW SLIGHT-CHANCE IN ALL ZONES. MAX TEMPS SHOULD END UP  
SLIGHTLY COOLER, JUST ON THE WARM SIDE OF NORMAL.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 120 PM FRIDAY: THE CWFA IS PROGGED TO BE WITHIN THE FAR  
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF TROPICAL/SUB-T SYSTEM CIRCULATION ON SUNDAY. AS  
IT STANDS NOW, BASED ON THE 12Z MODEL SUITE, WOULD EXPECT  
ENCROACHMENT OF HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD SATURDAY NIGHT AND  
EXPANDING WWD ON SUNDAY. GIVEN THE REDUCED INSOLATION AND INCREASED  
CHANCES FOR DEVELOPING SHOWER BANDS INTO THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT, HAVE  
LOWER MAXT FOR SUNDAY, WITH PERHAPS JUST MID 80S ALONG THE EASTERN  
FRINGES OF THE CWFA. VERY WELL MAY BE SUPPRESSED ALONG AND WEST OF  
THE BLUE RIDGE TO PRECLUDE ANY SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS, WE'LL SEE.  
THE SE CONUS UPPER RIDGING WITH STRENGTHEN SOME ON MONDAY, WITH VERY  
WARM AIR SURGING BACK NE ACRS THE REGION, BUMPING MAXIMUM  
TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE THE EARLY JULY CLIMO ALONG WITH A RETURN TO  
MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL DEEP CONVECTIVE CHANCES.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY: UPPER RIDGING WILL LINGER ATOP THE REGION TO  
START OFF THE PERIOD BEFORE BEGINNING TO BREAKDOWN IN RESPONSE TO  
OHIO OR MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ENERGY TRANSLATING EASTWARD. EXPECT  
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TO BE THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WEEK, FEATURING  
APPARENT TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS AROUND 100 FOR PARTS OF THE  
PIEDMONT. WITH THE TREND TOWARD A LESS SUPPRESSED ATMOSPHERE, CHANCY  
TYPE POP FOR TUESDAY WILL INCREASE TO LIKELY PROBABILITIES FOR  
SHOWERS AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY. THE EASTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO  
TRANSITION TO A MORE ROBUST AND DYNAMIC LOOKING PATTERN THROUGH THE  
LATTER HALF OF THE WORKWEEK RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: E TO NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE  
SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH THAT WAS ANCHORED OVER THE  
NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC. WINDS HAVE GRADUALLY DIMINISHED OVER  
THE PAST HOUR OR TWO AND THE 15-18 KT GUSTS THAT WAS OBSERVED  
DURING THE AFTERNOON HAS ALREADY SUBSIDED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME  
HEATING. SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY DECREASE TO 5 KT OR LESS AFTER  
SUNSET. AVL AND HKY THE MOST LIKELY FOR WINDS TO GO LIGHT AND  
VARIABLE (OR CALM) FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT. VFR IS STILL FORECAST  
FOR ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT, BUT THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE (20  
PERCENT) FOR MVFR CIGS AT CLT LATE TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF  
OF THE MORNING WHEN A STRATUS DECK ADVANCES INLAND. HOWEVER,  
MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS MARINE LAYER ABOUT  
50-75 MILES FROM CLT. LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY/RIVER FOG LATE  
TONIGHT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH FEW TO SCT  
CUMULUS DECK AROUND 5-7 KFT AS WELL AS HIGH-LEVEL CIRRUS. THE  
E-NE FLOW WILL BE AS STRONG, IF NOT 1-2 KT STRONGER, RESULTING  
IN SUSTAINED SPEEDS BETWEEN 8-13 KT. GUSTS OF 15-20 KT ARE MOST  
LIKELY BETWEEN 15Z-23Z WHEN DAYTIME MIXING IS STRONGEST. THERE IS  
A RISK FOR A DUE E WIND TO DEVELOP AT CLT SATURDAY AFTERNOON LIKE  
IT DID THIS AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTED ANYTHING MORE THAN A ROUGE  
STORM IN THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY.  
 
OUTLOOK: CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS  
OUR AREA ON SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK  
OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE, THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE OUTER  
RAIN BANDS COULD APPROACH EASTERN TERMINALS, INCLUDING CLT LATE  
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WHILE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM  
IS STILL EXPECTED TO STAY EAST OF US, MVFR RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE  
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS WILL ALSO BE  
POSSIBLE EACH MORNING, MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, AS WELL AS  
NEAR LAKES AND RIVERS.  
 

 
   
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
GA...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
SC...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...CSH  
NEAR TERM...JK/WIMBERLEY  
SHORT TERM...CSH  
LONG TERM...CSH  
AVIATION...JK  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab SC Page
The Nexlab NC Page
The Nexlab GA Page Main Text Page