704
FXUS62 KGSP 051724
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
124 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
TROPICAL CYCLONE CHANTAL WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN
OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HOT AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON MONDAY AND LINGER THROUGH MIDWEEK
FEATURING DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1 PM SATURDAY: STILL EXPECTING A RATHER QUIET SATURDAY FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. NE'LY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES BETWEEN DRY HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF NEW JERSEY AND DEVELOPING TS CHANTAL
OFF THE GA/SC COAST. VERTICAL PROFILES FEATURE LITTLE MOISTURE
ABOVE THE PBL AND DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX OUT TO SOME DEGREE THIS
AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODELS DEPICT A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION CAPPING
OFF DIURNAL CONVECTION, AND THIS IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY MORNING
ACARS SOUNDINGS DEPICTING INVERSION OVER CLT EVEN STRONGER THAN WHAT
THE HRRR SHOWED. THUS NO POP IS FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY HAS MAINTAINED A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE
PREVIOUS CYCLE, ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD MOTION IS DEPICTED,
AND THE TRACK INLAND IS VERY SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST. OUR EASTERN
ZONES REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STORM'S CIRCULATION
ALTHOUGH IMPACTS STILL LOOK MINIMAL. MOST LIKELY WINDS WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW TROPICAL STORM CRITERIA ALTHOUGH FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND
20 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN OUR EASTERN ZONES BY THE WEE HOURS SUNDAY
AND CONTINUING THRU THE DAY; THERE WOULD APPEAR POTENTIAL FOR AN
OCCASIONAL GUST UP TO AROUND 25 MPH PARTICULARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONAL DETAILS ABOUT SUNDAY WILL BE FORTHCOMING BY 215 PM.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1245 PM SATURDAY: THE NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A
FILLING CHANTAL AND WEAKENING SFC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO LOOSEN
SUNDAY NIGHT GIVING WAY TO THE ONSET OF SW, ALBEIT WEAK AT FIRST,
THROUGH A DEEPER LAYER ON MONDAY. THE HEAT RETURNS ON MONDAY,
FEATURING PIEDMONT LOWER TO MID 90S ALONG WITH A RETURN TO MORE
TYPICAL DIURNAL TSTM CHANCES REGIONWIDE. UPPER HEIGHTS ATOP THE SE
CONUS CREEP UPWARD ON TUESDAY AND WITHIN THE CONTINUED WAA FLOW,
PIEDMONT MAXIMUMS WILL BOOST INTO THE MIDDLE 90S WITH PERHAPS
APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 100S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 115 PM SATURDAY: IN RESPONSE TO OHIO/MISS VALLEY ENERGY
RIPPLING EASTWARD, UPPER RIDGING ATOP THE REGION WILL START TO BREAK
DOWN ON WEDNESDAY. BUT THE HOT AND HUMID AIR WILL LINGER ONE MORE
DAY FEATURING MIDDLE 90S AGAIN IN THE PIEDMONT. FOR THE REST OF THE
WORKWEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK CLOSER TO THE JULY CLIMO AS
FLATTER FLOW/SUBTLE TROUGHINESS DEVELOPS ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS.
THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD IS SHAPING UP BE AN ACTIVE ONE WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO BECOME NUMEROUS EACH
DAY GIVEN SEASONABLY HIGH IF NOT ABOVE NORMAL PWAT VALUES WITHIN
LONG PERIOD OF MODERATE WSW FLOW.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AT KCLT: TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF SC
TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 15-20 KT ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THRU
TONIGHT, WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KT LIKELY IN THE MORNING. LOW VFR
CIGS LOOK TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR LIKELY AFTER 13Z, BUT
POSSIBLY ARRIVING BEFORE DAYBREAK. SCATTERED SHRA EXPECTED MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM'S OUTER BANDS. HEAVIER
SHOWERS MAY CAUSE RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES, HENCE PROB30, ALTHOUGH
GREATEST GUST POTENTIAL APPEARS EARLIER IN THE DAY.
OTHERWISE: VFR THRU TONIGHT. LOW VFR CUMULUS WILL BE SEEN THIS
AFTERNOON BUT SHRA/TSRA ARE NOT EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
AND PRIMARILY NE THRU THE PERIOD, EXCEPTING PERIODS OF SE OR VRB
THIS AFTN AT KAVL. HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AROUND
T.S. CHANTAL TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY AT KGSP/KGMU/KHKY, WITH LOW
VFR STRATOCU BY AROUND DAYBREAK. RESTRICTIONS ARE TOO UNLIKELY TO
MENTION THIS TAF SET. GUSTS OF 15-20 KT BY MORNING. SCT SHRA COULD
BEGIN TO REACH KGSP/KGMU/KHKY BY 18Z, ALTHOUGH THE PEAK CHANCE IS
AFTER THAT TIME AND PRECIP MENTION IS NOT YET WARRANTED.
OUTLOOK: CHANTAL WILL TRACK ACROSS EASTERN NC, WITH WINDS AT
KCLT/KHKY DECREASING SUNDAY EVENING BUT WITH SOME RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE THRU MON MORNING. TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY AND
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS
AND EVENINGS, AND FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING,
MAINLY IN VALLEYS OR WHERE HEAVY RAIN FALLS THE PREVIOUS AFTERNOON.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
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