868  
FXUS62 KGSP 060109  
AFDGSP  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC  
909 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE CHANTAL WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN  
OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HOT AND MORE HUMID  
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON MONDAY AND LINGER THROUGH MIDWEEK  
FEATURING DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM  
CHANCES.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/  
 
AS OF 145 PM SAT: STILL EXPECTING A RATHER QUIET SATURDAY FOR THIS  
TIME OF YEAR. NE'LY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES BETWEEN DRY HIGH  
PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF NEW JERSEY AND DEVELOPING TS CHANTAL  
OFF THE GA/SC COAST. VERTICAL PROFILES FEATURE LITTLE MOISTURE  
ABOVE THE PBL AND DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX OUT TO SOME DEGREE THIS  
AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODELS DEPICT A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION CAPPING OFF  
DIURNAL CONVECTION, AND THIS IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY MORNING ACARS  
SOUNDINGS DEPICTING INVERSION OVER CLT EVEN STRONGER THAN WHAT THE  
HRRR SHOWED. THUS POPS ARE FORECAST TO BE BELOW SLIGHT-CHANCE IN  
ALL ZONES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.  
 
THE 15Z NHC ADVISORY MAINTAINED A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE PREVIOUS  
CYCLE, ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD MOTION IS DEPICTED, AND  
THE TRACK INLAND IS VERY SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST. OUR EASTERN ZONES  
REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STORM'S CIRCULATION BUT  
DIRECT IMPACTS STILL LOOK MINIMAL. MOST LIKELY WINDS WILL REMAIN  
WELL BELOW TROPICAL STORM CRITERIA ALTHOUGH FREQUENT GUSTS TO  
AROUND 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN OUR EASTERN ZONES BY THE WEE HOURS  
SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THRU THE DAY; THERE WOULD APPEAR POTENTIAL  
FOR AN OCCASIONAL GUST UP TO AROUND 25 MPH PARTICULARLY SUNDAY  
MORNING. PRECIP POTENTIAL HAS TICKED SLIGHTLY HIGHER EAST OF I-77  
OWING TO THE MORE INLAND TRACK, INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT RAIN  
BANDS WILL REACH THAT AREA, STILL HIGHLIGHTED BY WPC MARGINAL  
RISK ERO. THAT SAID, THE HEAVIEST RAIN STILL LOOKS TO FALL TO OUR  
EAST. THE SPC DAY 2 RISK AREA DID ADD A 2% TORNADO CONTOUR ON THE  
EAST SIDE OF THE TRACK, ALSO STILL TO OUR EAST. A FEW RUMBLES OF  
THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTN NEAR I-77 BUT DEEPLY SATURATED  
TROPICAL PROFILES KEEP CAPE RELATIVELY LOW. ABUNDANT LOW CLOUD COVER  
IS EXPECTED IN THAT AREA FROM EARLY MORNING THRU MOST OF THE DAY,  
SO FCST MAX TEMPS ARE HELD INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S THERE. IN  
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA, MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL, BUT  
PERHAPS TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THE FRENCH BROAD AND LITTLE TN  
VALLEYS OWING TO DOWNSLOPE NE FLOW OFF THE RIDGES.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/  
 
AS OF 1245 PM SATURDAY: THE NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A  
FILLING CHANTAL AND WEAKENING SFC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO LOOSEN  
SUNDAY NIGHT GIVING WAY TO THE ONSET OF SW FLOW, ALBEIT WEAK AT  
FIRST, THROUGH A DEEPER LAYER ON MONDAY. THE HEAT RETURNS ON  
MONDAY, FEATURING PIEDMONT LOWER TO MID 90S ALONG WITH A RETURN TO  
MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL TSTM CHANCES REGIONWIDE. UPPER HEIGHTS ATOP  
THE SE CONUS CREEP UPWARD ON TUESDAY, AND WITHIN THE CONTINUED WAA  
FLOW, PIEDMONT MAXIMUMS WILL BOOST INTO THE MIDDLE 90S WITH APPARENT  
TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY IN THE LOWER 100S.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/  
 
AS OF 115 PM SATURDAY: IN RESPONSE TO OHIO/MISS VALLEY ENERGY  
RIPPLING EASTWARD, UPPER RIDGING ATOP THE REGION WILL START TO BREAK  
DOWN ON WEDNESDAY. BUT THE HOT AND HUMID AIR WILL LINGER ONE MORE  
DAY FEATURING MIDDLE 90S AGAIN IN THE PIEDMONT. FOR THE REST OF THE  
WORKWEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK CLOSER TO THE JULY CLIMO AS  
FLATTER FLOW/SUBTLE TROUGHINESS DEVELOPS ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS.  
THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD IS SHAPING UP BE AN ACTIVE ONE WITH  
THE POTENTIAL FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO BECOME NUMEROUS EACH  
DAY GIVEN SEASONABLY HIGH, IF NOT ABOVE NORMAL PWAT VALUES WITHIN A  
LONG PERIOD OF MODERATE WSW FLOW.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/  
 
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL IS FORECAST TO  
MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SC COAST TONIGHT AND THEN TURN NORTHWARD  
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS, PASSING 50-150 MILES EAST OF CLT SUNDAY  
NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN CHANTAL AND HIGH PRESSURE  
CENTERED ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WILL KEEP WINDS ELEVATED IN THE  
5-10 KT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS MOST TERMINALS.  
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL GUSTS JUST  
UNDER 20 KT, PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER  
SUNSET AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. AVL AND HKY, HOWEVER, WILL BE  
LOCATED CLOSER TO THE RIDGE AXIS WHERE A WEAKER PRESSURE  
GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT (UNDER 5 KT).  
 
FOR CLT: MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS EARLY AS 09Z AT CLT,  
BUT MOST LIKELY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND 12Z OR 13Z. FORECAST  
TRENDS PROVIDE GREATER CONFIDENCE FOR THE LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS  
FROM CHANTAL TO REACH CLT DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. ONSET TIMING  
IS MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 14Z-17Z. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF  
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAINBAND TO ORGANIZE  
ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION, AND IF IT DOES, HOW FAR  
WEST CAN IT SET UP. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS THAT SUPPORT THE SCENARIO  
KEEP THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN EAST OF CLT, BUT THERE ARE SOME WESTERN  
OUTLIER SOLUTIONS THAT BRING IT TO CLT, RESULTING IN SEVERAL HOURS  
OF LOW VISIBILITIES IN IFR OR WORSE. ADDED A PROB30 FOR IFR IN  
THE 00Z TAFS BETWEEN 18Z-21Z TO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF THIS  
HAPPENING, BUT THAT APPROACH MIGHT BE A BIT AGGRESSIVE COMPARED  
TO THE SUPPORT FROM CAM ENSEMBLES. NE WINDS OF 10-15 KT WITH  
GUSTS IN THE 18-22 KT RANGE ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY - BUT THE  
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE MORNING. RAIN CHANCES  
QUICKLY TAPER OFF BETWEEN 21-00Z. LOW CLOUDS MAY REDEVELOP AFTER  
SUNSET. ADDED PREVAILING MVFR RESTRICTIONS THE LAST FEW HOURS OF  
THE 30-H TAF, BUT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR CIGS TO TANK QUICKER  
THAN ADVERTISED, PERHAPS TO IFR BY 06Z.  
 
ELSEWHERE, WHILE RAIN SHOWERS MAY EXTEND AS FAR WEST AS AVL-  
GSP-GMU, IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL. PREVAILING VFR IS FORECAST  
OUTSIDE OF CLT ALTHOUGH THERE IS A HINT OF CIGS APPROACHING MVFR  
AT KHKY AFTER 12Z WITH THE ADDITION OF A SCT030 DECK. WINDS  
WILL BE SIMILAR TO CLT WITH FORECAST SPEEDS ONLY A FEW KNOTS  
LOWER.  
 
OUTLOOK: MODELS GENERALLY INDICATE A STRATUS DECK TO DEVELOP SUNDAY  
NIGHT-MONDAY MORNING TO VARY DEGREES. THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE  
STRATUS DECK WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR INLAND THE AFTERNOON RAINFALL  
AND TROPICAL MARITIME LAYER ADVANCES ON THE BACKSIDE OF CHANTAL'S  
CIRCULATION. TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY AND MUCH OF  
NEXT WEEK, WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS  
AND EVENINGS, AND FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING,  
MAINLY IN VALLEYS OR WHERE HEAVY RAIN FALLS THE PREVIOUS AFTERNOON.  
 
 
   
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
GA...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
SC...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...CSH  
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY  
SHORT TERM...CSH  
LONG TERM...CSH  
AVIATION...JRK  
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
The Nexlab SC Page
The Nexlab NC Page
The Nexlab GA Page
Main Text Page