440  
FXUS62 KGSP 060251  
AFDGSP  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC  
1051 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE CHANTAL WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN  
OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HOT AND MORE HUMID  
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON MONDAY AND LINGER THROUGH MIDWEEK  
FEATURING DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM  
CHANCES.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
AS OF 1045 PM SATURDAY: CONDITIONS REMAIN QUIET AND DRY ACROSS  
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. ATTENTION NOW TURNS TO TROPICAL  
STORM CHANTAL, WHICH IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH  
CAROLINA COAST LATER TONIGHT BEFORE TURNING NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST  
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.  
 
THERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POTENTIAL  
FOR A NARROW HEAVY RAIN BAND TO ORGANIZE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE  
OF THE CIRCULATION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND. MOST MODEL  
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR THIS AXIS REMAINING WELL EAST OF THE  
FORECAST AREA, BUT A SMALL SUBSET OF HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS -  
INCLUDING THE 12Z HIRES ARW AND SEVERAL 12Z REFS ENSEMBLE  
MEMBERS - SUGGEST A LONGER-SUSTAINED BAND FARTHER TO THE WEST  
THAT COULD CLIP THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA,  
PARTICULARLY NEAR THE I-77 CORRIDOR. THESE SOLUTIONS HAVE  
ALREADY VERIFIED TOO FAR WEST AND APPEAR TO BE SUFFERING FROM  
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK, AS MANY ALSO DEEPEN THE LOW POST-LANDFALL  
IN CONCERT WITH THE ORGANIZING RAIN BAND, A SCENARIO NOT  
SUPPORTED BY THE BROADER CONSENSUS OR THE LATEST TRENDS. MORE  
RECENT 18Z AND EARLY 00Z GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDED EASTWARD WITH THE  
HEAVY RAINFALL AXIS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS VERY LOW IN ANY  
IMPACTFUL RAINFALL WEST OF THE I-77 CORRIDOR, BUT WE WILL  
CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR SHORT-TERM TRENDS OVERNIGHT FOR  
SIGNS OF RAINBAND ORGANIZATION AND AN EXPANSION FARTHER WEST  
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.  
 
OUR EASTERN ZONES REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STORM'S  
CIRCULATION BUT DIRECT IMPACTS STILL LOOK MINIMAL. MOST LIKELY WINDS  
WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW TROPICAL STORM CRITERIA ALTHOUGH FREQUENT  
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN OUR EASTERN ZONES BY THE  
WEE HOURS SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THRU THE DAY; THERE WOULD APPEAR  
POTENTIAL FOR AN OCCASIONAL GUST UP TO AROUND 25 MPH PARTICULARLY  
SUNDAY MORNING. ABUNDANT LOW CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED IN THAT AREA  
FROM EARLY MORNING THRU MOST OF THE DAY, SO FCST MAX TEMPS ARE HELD  
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S THERE. IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA,  
MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL, BUT PERHAPS TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER  
IN THE FRENCH BROAD AND LITTLE TN VALLEYS OWING TO DOWNSLOPE NE  
FLOW OFF THE RIDGES.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 1245 PM SATURDAY: THE NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A  
FILLING CHANTAL AND WEAKENING SFC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO LOOSEN  
SUNDAY NIGHT GIVING WAY TO THE ONSET OF SW FLOW, ALBEIT WEAK AT  
FIRST, THROUGH A DEEPER LAYER ON MONDAY. THE HEAT RETURNS ON  
MONDAY, FEATURING PIEDMONT LOWER TO MID 90S ALONG WITH A RETURN TO  
MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL TSTM CHANCES REGIONWIDE. UPPER HEIGHTS ATOP  
THE SE CONUS CREEP UPWARD ON TUESDAY, AND WITHIN THE CONTINUED WAA  
FLOW, PIEDMONT MAXIMUMS WILL BOOST INTO THE MIDDLE 90S WITH APPARENT  
TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY IN THE LOWER 100S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AS OF 115 PM SATURDAY: IN RESPONSE TO OHIO/MISS VALLEY ENERGY  
RIPPLING EASTWARD, UPPER RIDGING ATOP THE REGION WILL START TO BREAK  
DOWN ON WEDNESDAY. BUT THE HOT AND HUMID AIR WILL LINGER ONE MORE  
DAY FEATURING MIDDLE 90S AGAIN IN THE PIEDMONT. FOR THE REST OF THE  
WORKWEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK CLOSER TO THE JULY CLIMO AS  
FLATTER FLOW/SUBTLE TROUGHINESS DEVELOPS ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS.  
THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD IS SHAPING UP BE AN ACTIVE ONE WITH  
THE POTENTIAL FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO BECOME NUMEROUS EACH  
DAY GIVEN SEASONABLY HIGH, IF NOT ABOVE NORMAL PWAT VALUES WITHIN A  
LONG PERIOD OF MODERATE WSW FLOW.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL IS FORECAST TO MAKE  
LANDFALL ALONG THE SC COAST TONIGHT AND THEN TURN NORTHWARD ACROSS  
THE CAROLINAS, PASSING 50-150 MILES EAST OF CLT SUNDAY NIGHT. THE  
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN CHANTAL AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG  
THE BLUE RIDGE WILL KEEP WINDS ELEVATED IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE FOR  
MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS MOST TERMINALS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW  
THE POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL GUSTS JUST UNDER 20 KT, PARTICULARLY  
WITHIN THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. AVL  
AND HKY, HOWEVER, WILL BE LOCATED CLOSER TO THE RIDGE AXIS WHERE  
A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT  
(UNDER 5 KT).  
 
FOR CLT: MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS EARLY AS 09Z AT CLT,  
BUT MOST LIKELY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND 12Z OR 13Z. FORECAST  
TRENDS PROVIDE GREATER CONFIDENCE FOR THE LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS  
FROM CHANTAL TO REACH CLT DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. ONSET TIMING  
IS MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 14Z-17Z. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF  
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAINBAND TO ORGANIZE  
ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION, AND IF IT DOES, HOW FAR  
WEST CAN IT SET UP. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS THAT SUPPORT THE SCENARIO  
KEEP THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN EAST OF CLT, BUT THERE ARE SOME WESTERN  
OUTLIER SOLUTIONS THAT BRING IT TO CLT, RESULTING IN SEVERAL HOURS  
OF LOW VISIBILITIES IN IFR OR WORSE. ADDED A PROB30 FOR IFR IN  
THE 00Z TAFS BETWEEN 18Z-21Z TO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF THIS  
HAPPENING, BUT THAT APPROACH MIGHT BE A BIT AGGRESSIVE COMPARED  
TO THE SUPPORT FROM CAM ENSEMBLES. NE WINDS OF 10-15 KT WITH  
GUSTS IN THE 18-22 KT RANGE ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY - BUT THE  
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE MORNING. RAIN CHANCES  
QUICKLY TAPER OFF BETWEEN 21-00Z. LOW CLOUDS MAY REDEVELOP AFTER  
SUNSET. ADDED PREVAILING MVFR RESTRICTIONS THE LAST FEW HOURS OF  
THE 30-H TAF, BUT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR CIGS TO TANK QUICKER  
THAN ADVERTISED, PERHAPS TO IFR BY 06Z.  
 
ELSEWHERE, WHILE RAIN SHOWERS MAY EXTEND AS FAR WEST AS AVL-  
GSP-GMU, IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL. PREVAILING VFR IS FORECAST  
OUTSIDE OF CLT ALTHOUGH THERE IS A HINT OF CIGS APPROACHING MVFR  
AT KHKY AFTER 12Z WITH THE ADDITION OF A SCT030 DECK. WINDS  
WILL BE SIMILAR TO CLT WITH FORECAST SPEEDS ONLY A FEW KNOTS  
LOWER.  
 
OUTLOOK: MODELS GENERALLY INDICATE A STRATUS DECK TO DEVELOP SUNDAY  
NIGHT-MONDAY MORNING TO VARY DEGREES. THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE  
STRATUS DECK WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR INLAND THE AFTERNOON RAINFALL  
AND TROPICAL MARITIME LAYER ADVANCES ON THE BACKSIDE OF CHANTAL'S  
CIRCULATION. TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY AND MUCH OF  
NEXT WEEK, WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS  
AND EVENINGS, AND FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING,  
MAINLY IN VALLEYS OR WHERE HEAVY RAIN FALLS THE PREVIOUS AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
GA...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
SC...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...CSH  
NEAR TERM...JK/WIMBERLEY  
SHORT TERM...CSH  
LONG TERM...CSH  
AVIATION...JK  
 
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