384
FXUS62 KGSP 060637
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
237 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
TROPICAL CYCLONE CHANTAL WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN
OF THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOT AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN ON MONDAY AND LINGER THROUGH MIDWEEK FEATURING DAILY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THE HEAT
ABATES SOMEWHAT INTO THE WEEKEND BUT DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 2:15 AM EDT SUNDAY: CONDITIONS REMAIN QUIET ACROSS OUR AREA
AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL, IS CURRENTLY
MAKING LANDFALL OVER THE NC/SC COAST WITH ITS OUTER-MOST RAINBAND
APPROACHING OUR EASTERN-MOST ZONES.
THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVIER RAINBAND(S) TO ORGANIZE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND. MOST OF THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THIS AXIS WELL EAST OF OUR FCST AREA,
BUT A SMALL SUBSET OF HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST A LONGER-
SUSTAINED BAND THAT PUSHES FURTHER WEST AND REACHES OUR I-77
CORRIDOR. THESE SOLUTIONS ARE LIKELY SUFFERING FROM SOME AMOUNT
OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK, AS MANY ALSO DEEPEN THE LOW POST-LANDFALL,
A SCENARIO NOT SUPPORTED BY THE BROADER MODEL CONSENSUS. THUS,
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THAT ANY IMPACTFUL PRECIP WILL MATERIALIZE
WEST OF THE I-77 CORRIDOR, BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR
TRENDS OVERNIGHT FOR ANY SIGNS OF RAINBAND ORGANIZATION FURTHER
WEST THAN CURRENTLY FCST. OVERALL, OUR EASTERN ZONES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STORM'S CIRCULATION BUT
DIRECT IMPACTS STILL LOOK MINIMAL. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN WELL-BELOW
TROPICAL STORM CRITERIA, ALTHOUGH FREQUENT WIND GUSTS OF 15-25 MPH
ARE EXPECTED OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES THIS MORNING AND THRU MUCH OF
THE DAY, WITH WEAKER WINDS/GUSTS THE FURTHER WEST YOU GO. LOWER
CLOUD COVER IS ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE I-77 CORRIDOR THRU MOST OF
THE DAY, SO HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S OVER
THOSE ZONES. IN THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA, HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE
NEAR NORMAL, AND PERHAPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE FRENCH BROAD
AND LITTLE TN VALLEYS OWING TO DOWNSLOPE NELY FLOW OFF THE RIDGES.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 115 AM SUNDAY: CHANTAL MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA MONDAY LEAVING
A WARM, MOIST, AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS
AIR MASS REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. EXPECT DIURNAL
CONVECTION BOTH DAYS, WITH COVERAGE FAVORING THE MOUNTAINS DROPPING
TO ISOLATED COVERAGE SOUTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR IN THE UPSTATE AND
NE GA. HIGHS WILL BE ON THE RISE BOTH DAYS WITH MID 90S COMMON
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AND AROUND 90 IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, AND
MAY INCREASE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON TUESDAY. DEW POINTS SHOULD MIX
OUT BOTH AFTERNOONS WITH RELATIVELY DEEP MIXING AND WEAK WESTERLY
FLOW. STILL, HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND 100 DEGREES OR
SLIGHTLY HIGHER ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR. IF TEMPS OR
DEW POINTS END UP WARMER, THEN A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 145 AM SUNDAY: A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE EAST
NEAR OR OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS BRINGS LOWER HEIGHTS
AND A "COOLING TREND" WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO "ONLY" SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. A STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR NORTH WILL
SEE A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS MOVE EAST ALONG IT. WHILE THEY
STAY TO OUR NORTH, A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS EACH DAY HELPING TO PROVIDE
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THE AIR MASS REMAINS MOIST AND
UNSTABLE, SO INCREASING, MAINLY DIURNAL POP IS EXPECTED EACH DAY.
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES, AGAIN AROUND 100
OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR. MID 90S TO
POSSIBLY 100 WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THE END OF THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.
AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL IS CURRENTLY MAKING
LANDFALL OVER THE NC/SC COAST. IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO TURN NORTH
AND PASS ROUGHLY 50 TO 150 MILES EAST OF KCLT LATER TONIGHT. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN CHANTAL AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE WILL KEEP WINDS OUT OF THE N TO NE IN THE 5 TO 10 KT
RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH LOW-END GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS.
KAVL AND TO A LESSER EXTENT KHKY, WILL BE LOCATED CLOSER TO THE RIDGE
AXIS WHICH SHOULD KEEP WINDS LIGHTER THRU THE PERIOD.
FOR CLT: MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL BY ROUGHLY
13Z WITH A PROB30 FOR SHRA BEGINNING SHORTLY THEREAFTER. I HAVE PRE-
VAILING SHRA BEGINNING AROUND 17Z THIS AFTERNOON WITH A PROB30 FOR
-TSRA FROM 18 TO 24Z TODAY. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR WHETHER THE HEAVIER
RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH CHANTAL WILL ACTUALLY REACH KCLT AND THEY
MAY END UP ONLY SEEING SCT SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH ANY IFR
CONDITIONS REMAINING TO THEIR EAST. PRECIP CHANCES TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING, BUT I KEPT A VCSH IN THE TAF FOR LINGERING SHOWERS THAT
MIGHT IMPACT THE TERMINAL. IN ADDITION, THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE
THAT MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE BACK OVER THE SITE AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING
AND THEN SCT OUT DURING THE OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE, WHILE RAIN SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY EXTEND AS FAR WEST
AS THE UPSTATE TERMINALS, IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL. THUS, I KEEP
THESE TERMINALS VFR THRU THE PERIOD AND USE PROB30S AND/OR VCSH FOR
SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL. WINDS WILL BE SIMILAR TO KCLT JUST SLIGHTLY
WEAKER, ESPECIALLY AT KAVL.
OUTLOOK: A STRATUS DECK WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING,
THE WESTERN EXTENT OF WHICH MAY KEEP LOWER CIGS OVER KCLT AND
KHKY. OTHERWISE, MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WX RETURNS ON MONDAY
AND CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE
EACH MORNING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JPT
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