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FXUS62 KGSP 061100
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
700 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
TROPICAL CYCLONE CHANTAL WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN
OF THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOT AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN ON MONDAY AND LINGER THROUGH MIDWEEK FEATURING DAILY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THE HEAT
ABATES SOMEWHAT INTO THE WEEKEND BUT DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 6:15 AM EDT SUNDAY: CONDITIONS REMAIN MOSTLY QUIET ACROSS OUR
AREA THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL, IS CURRENTLY MAKING LAND-
FALL OVER THE NC/SC COAST WITH ANY APPRECIABLE SHOWERS STILL WELL TO
OUR EAST.
THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVIER RAINBAND(S) TO ORGANIZE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND. MOST OF THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THIS AXIS WELL EAST OF OUR FCST AREA,
BUT A SMALL SUBSET OF HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST A LONGER-
SUSTAINED BAND THAT PUSHES FURTHER WEST AND REACHES OUR I-77
CORRIDOR. THESE SOLUTIONS ARE LIKELY SUFFERING FROM SOME AMOUNT
OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK, AS MANY ALSO DEEPEN THE LOW POST-LANDFALL,
A SCENARIO NOT SUPPORTED BY THE BROADER MODEL CONSENSUS. THUS,
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THAT ANY IMPACTFUL PRECIP WILL MATERIALIZE
WEST OF THE I-77 CORRIDOR, BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR
TRENDS OVERNIGHT FOR ANY SIGNS OF RAINBAND ORGANIZATION FURTHER
WEST THAN CURRENTLY FCST. OVERALL, OUR EASTERN ZONES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STORM'S CIRCULATION BUT
DIRECT IMPACTS STILL LOOK MINIMAL. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN WELL-BELOW
TROPICAL STORM CRITERIA, ALTHOUGH FREQUENT WIND GUSTS OF 15-25 MPH
ARE EXPECTED OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES THIS MORNING AND THRU MUCH OF
THE DAY, WITH WEAKER WINDS/GUSTS THE FURTHER WEST YOU GO. LOWER
CLOUD COVER IS ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE I-77 CORRIDOR THRU MOST OF
THE DAY, SO HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S OVER
THOSE ZONES. IN THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA, HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE
NEAR NORMAL, AND PERHAPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE FRENCH BROAD
AND LITTLE TN VALLEYS OWING TO DOWNSLOPE NELY FLOW OFF THE RIDGES.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 115 AM SUNDAY: CHANTAL MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA MONDAY LEAVING
A WARM, MOIST, AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS
AIR MASS REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. EXPECT DIURNAL
CONVECTION BOTH DAYS, WITH COVERAGE FAVORING THE MOUNTAINS DROPPING
TO ISOLATED COVERAGE SOUTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR IN THE UPSTATE AND
NE GA. HIGHS WILL BE ON THE RISE BOTH DAYS WITH MID 90S COMMON
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AND AROUND 90 IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, AND
MAY INCREASE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON TUESDAY. DEW POINTS SHOULD MIX
OUT BOTH AFTERNOONS WITH RELATIVELY DEEP MIXING AND WEAK WESTERLY
FLOW. STILL, HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND 100 DEGREES OR
SLIGHTLY HIGHER ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR. IF TEMPS OR
DEW POINTS END UP WARMER, THEN A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 145 AM SUNDAY: A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE EAST
NEAR OR OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS BRINGS LOWER HEIGHTS
AND A "COOLING TREND" WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO "ONLY" SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. A STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR NORTH WILL
SEE A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS MOVE EAST ALONG IT. WHILE THEY
STAY TO OUR NORTH, A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS EACH DAY HELPING TO PROVIDE
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THE AIR MASS REMAINS MOIST AND
UNSTABLE, SO INCREASING, MAINLY DIURNAL POP IS EXPECTED EACH DAY.
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES, AGAIN AROUND 100
OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR. MID 90S TO
POSSIBLY 100 WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THE END OF THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL IS CURRENTLY MAKING
LANDFALL OVER THE NC/SC COAST. IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO TURN NORTH
AND PASS ROUGHLY 50 TO 150 MILES EAST OF KCLT LATER TONIGHT. THE
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN CHANTAL AND HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WILL KEEP WINDS OUT OF THE N TO NE
IN THE 6 TO 12 KT RANGE THRU THIS EVENING WITH LOW-END GUSTS OF
15 TO 20 KTS. KAVL WILL BE CLOSER TO THE RIDGE AXIS WHICH SHOULD
KEEP THEIR WINDS LIGHTER THRU THE TAF PERIOD.
FOR CLT: MUCH OF THE LATEST NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN BACKING OFF
ON LOWER CIGS REACHING KCLT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. THUS, I HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP ANY CIG RESTRICTIONS IN A TEMPO GROUP AS OPPOSED TO
PREVAILING. THE TEMPO RUNS FROM 13 TO 17Z AND ALSO INCLUDES -SHRA
WITH MVFR VISBY. I STILL HAVE PREVAILING SHRA BEGINNING AROUND 17Z
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A PROB30 FOR -TSRA FROM 18 TO 24Z TODAY. IT RE-
MAINS UNCLEAR WHETHER THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH CHANTAL
WILL ACTUALLY REACH KCLT, BUT IT'S LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT THEY WILL
END UP ONLY SEEING SCT SHOWERS TODAY/TONIGHT WITH ANY IFR CONDITIONS
REMAINING TO THEIR EAST. PRECIP CHANCES TAPER OFF THIS EVENING WITH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD EXPECTED TO BE DRY. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE
THAT MVFR CIGS MAY MOVE BACK OVER THE SITE AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING
AND THEN SCT OUT DURING THE OVERNIGHT, BUT IT'S LOOKING LESS LIKELY.
ELSEWHERE, WHILE RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO MAY EXTEND AS FAR WEST AS THE UPSTATE TERMINALS, IT'S LOOKING
LESS LIKELY. I KEEP THESE TERMINALS VFR THRU THE PERIOD WITH PROB30S
AND/OR VCSH FOR SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL. WINDS WILL BE SIMILAR TO KCLT
JUST SLIGHTLY WEAKER, ESPECIALLY AT KAVL.
OUTLOOK: MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER RETURNS ON MONDAY AND
CONTINUES THRU MID-WEEK, WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY IN THE AFTN/
EVENING AND FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JPT
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