906
FXUS62 KGSP 061749
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
149 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
TROPICAL CYCLONE CHANTAL WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AWAY FROM OUR REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY. HOT
AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON MONDAY AND LINGER THROUGH
MIDWEEK FEATURING DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THE HEAT ABATES SOMEWHAT INTO THE WEEKEND BUT
DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 130 PM: PER SFC OBS AND RADAR IMAGERY TD CHANTAL WOULD APPEAR
TO BE CENTERED JUST WEST OF LUMBERTON, NC, AND WE SHOULD REMAIN
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STORM THROUGH EVENING. THE OUTER
RAIN BANDS HAVE SO FAR STRUGGLED TO MOVE INTO OUR CWA, WITH A SHARP
REFLECTIVITY GRADIENT HAVING REMAINED NEAR THE YADKIN AND PEE DEE
RIVERS, SIMILAR TO WHAT CAM CONSENSUS HAD BEGUN TO SUGGEST LAST
NIGHT. POPS REFLECT A TIGHT GRADIENT AS WELL, WITH 70-90% POP EAST
OF I-77 TAPERING DOWN TO A CHANCE FOR THE LOWER CATAWBA RIVER, WITH
UNMENTIONABLY LOW VALUES NOW ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE CWA. THERE
REMAINS SOME CONSISTENCY AMONG CAMS IN DEVELOPING ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS NEAR THE SW BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT AND PROPAGATING
THEM SOUTH INTO THE SAVANNAH VALLEY, SO A MENTION IS MADE THERE
AS WELL. IMPACTS FROM THE LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN AMOUNTS ALONG OUR
EASTERN BORDER PROBABLY WILL REMAIN NUISANCE-LEVEL. GUSTS OF 20-25
MPH CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE I-77 CORRIDOR THRU THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS
APPEAR ON TRACK TO BE AS MUCH AS 10 BELOW NORMAL THIS AFTN IN THAT
AREA, WITH VALUES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN OUR WEST.
CHANTAL WILL WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD THRU CENTRAL NC
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH, BECOMING LIGHT NW
ACROSS THE CWA BY THE WEE HOURS MONDAY. THE REMAINING HIGH ALTITUDE
CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO DIMINISH. DESPITE THESE CONDITIONS FOG IS
NOT EXPECTED DUE TO LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. DURING THE DAY
MONDAY, LOW TO MIDLEVEL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY WEST TO NORTHWEST,
SETTING US UP FOR SOME DEGREE OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW; SURFACE WINDS
WILL RETURN TO THE SW FOR THE MOST PART. ACCORDINGLY VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WITH HIGHS LARGELY IN THE MID-90S IN THE
PIEDMONT; SOME LOCATIONS IN THE SAVANNAH VALLEY REACH THE UPPER
90S, AND THE MAJOR MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WILL TOP OUT NEAR 90. DEEP
MIXING IS EXPECTED, WHICH COUPLED WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO BRING AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP HEAT INDEX FROM
RISING MUCH ABOVE 100. DRY PROFILES ALOFT AND DEEP MIXING SUGGEST
ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS. WHERE CONVECTION DOES FIRE, WEAK SHEAR AND THE DRY
MIDLEVELS SHOULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED DRY MICROBURST AND PERHAPS
LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE AS A RESULT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1245 PM SUNDAY: MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN
ATOP THE SE CONUS TO START OFF THE PERIOD AS LLVL SW FLOW ADVECTS
HOT AIR INTO THE REGION. SOLID MIDDLE 90S ARE PROGGED AGAIN FOR
TUESDAY'S MAXIMUMS WITH APPARENT TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY REACHING
INTO THE LOWER 100S. THE AXIS OF THE WARMEST AIR WILL START TO
BE DISPLACED ON WEDNESDAY BUT ESSENTIALLY IT CLOSE TO A
PERSISTENCE FCST AS FAR AS MAX TEMPERATURES GO, ANOTHER
AFTERNOON OF MIDDLE 90S. DESPITE PRETTY TYPICAL DIURNAL TSTM
CVRG, THERE IS POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON
TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF DEVELOPING SFC TROUGH. AS
MISS/OHIO VALLEY ENERGY BEGINS TO RIDE EASTWARD AND UPPER
HEIGHTS NUDGE DOWNWARD, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNALLY
ENHANCED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BECOME NUMEROUS REGIONWIDE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 130 PM SUNDAY: TEMPERATURES WILL PULL BACK TO AROUND CLIMO
AS A WAVY FLOW SETS UP ATOP THE REGION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK. GIVEN THE SEASONABLY RICH MOISTURE IN PLACE, PRETTY
MUCH EITHER DAY THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAIN OR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS, EVEN OUTSIDE OF PEAK HEATING DUE
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SUBTLE ENERGY TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE
AFOREMENTIONED WAVY PATTERN. THERE IS CERTAINLY NO INDICATION
THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL SUPPRESSED IN ANY WAY NEXT WEEKEND WITH
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE MEAN PATTERN EXPECTED. DAILY
TEMPERATURES STILL AROUND CLIMO WITH LIKELY PROBABILITIES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTN ON THE PERIPHERY
OF CHANTAL AT THE NC SITES AND PERHAPS OCCASIONALLY AT THE SC
SITES. PRECIP IS NOW MENTIONED ONLY IN PROB30 AT KCLT, AND CHANCES
ARE UNMENTIONABLY LOW ELSEWHERE. CIGS NEAR MVFR-VFR THRESHOLD
AT ISSUANCE TIME AT KCLT/KHKY BUT A GRADUAL LIFTING TREND IS
EXPECTED THRU THE REST OF THE AFTN. GUSTS SUBSIDE BY EVENING,
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AND BACKING BY MORNING. DRY ENOUGH THAT FOG
IS UNLIKELY TO FORM TONIGHT DESPITE THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING
SKIES. LOW VFR CU DEVELOPING DIURNALLY BUT MIXING UP TO 050-070
BY AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIP AT KAVL AFTER 18Z, OTHERWISE
LOOKING DRY.
OUTLOOK: MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO LATE WEEK, WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY IN
THE AFTN/ EVENING AND FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
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