997
FXUS62 KGSP 062143
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
543 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
TROPICAL CYCLONE CHANTAL WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AWAY FROM OUR REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY. HOT
AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON MONDAY AND LINGER THROUGH
MIDWEEK FEATURING DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THE HEAT ABATES SOMEWHAT INTO THE WEEKEND BUT
DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 540 PM: SENT A QUICK GRID UPDATE LAST HOUR TO REFLECT
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS ACROSS THE AREA. AT 5 PM, THE
CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR
FAYETTEVILLE, NC OR ABOUT 75 MILES EAST OF UNION COUNTY, NC.
THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD HAS ALREADY PULLED AWAY FROM
THE AREA ALTHOUGH A FEW SPRINKLES MAY LINGER FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS DAVIE AND ROWAN COUNTIES. ANY THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA. WE
WILL NO LONGER BE PRODUCING HTI GRAPHICS FOR THIS EVENT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED
IN THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. SPC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND CIRA
ADVECTED LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER (ALPW) SHOWS SOME MOISTURE
POOLING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER, RESULTING IN A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
ENHANCED MLCAPE BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG. ALPW ALSO REVEALS A
POCKET OF DRIER AIR IN THE 850-700 MB AND 700-500 MB THAT IS
ASSOCIATED WITH SUBSIDENCE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF CHANTAL'S
CIRCULATION. DESPITE CONVECTION HAVING TO OVERCOME THIS
SUBSIDENCE AS WELL AS ADDITIONAL SUBSIDENCE FROM DOWNSLOPING
FLOW SOUTH OF THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT, VERTICAL PROFILES HAVE
YIELDED A RELATIVELY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR
SHALLOW CONVECTION. THE THREAT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD
CONTINUE IN NE GA, FAR WESTERN AREAS OF UPSTATE SC, AND THE
WESTERN NC MOUNTAINS UNTIL DARK.
CHANTAL WILL WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD THRU CENTRAL NC
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH, BECOMING LIGHT NW
ACROSS THE CWA BY THE WEE HOURS MONDAY. THE REMAINING HIGH ALTITUDE
CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO DIMINISH. DESPITE THESE CONDITIONS FOG IS
NOT EXPECTED DUE TO LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. DURING THE DAY
MONDAY, LOW TO MIDLEVEL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY WEST TO NORTHWEST,
SETTING US UP FOR SOME DEGREE OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW; SURFACE WINDS
WILL RETURN TO THE SW FOR THE MOST PART. ACCORDINGLY VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WITH HIGHS LARGELY IN THE MID-90S IN THE
PIEDMONT; SOME LOCATIONS IN THE SAVANNAH VALLEY REACH THE UPPER
90S, AND THE MAJOR MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WILL TOP OUT NEAR 90. DEEP
MIXING IS EXPECTED, WHICH COUPLED WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO BRING AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP HEAT INDEX FROM
RISING MUCH ABOVE 100. DRY PROFILES ALOFT AND DEEP MIXING SUGGEST
ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS. WHERE CONVECTION DOES FIRE, WEAK SHEAR AND THE DRY
MIDLEVELS SHOULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED DRY MICROBURST AND PERHAPS
LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE AS A RESULT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1245 PM SUNDAY: MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN
ATOP THE SE CONUS TO START OFF THE PERIOD AS LLVL SW FLOW ADVECTS
EVEN HOT AIR INTO THE REGION. SOLID MIDDLE 90S ARE PROGGED FOR
TUESDAY'S MAXIMUMS WITH APPARENT TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY REACHING
INTO THE LOWER 100S. THE AXIS OF THE WARMEST AIR WILL START TO
BE DISPLACED ON WEDNESDAY BUT ESSENTIALLY IT CLOSE TO A PERSISTENCE
FCST AS FAR AS MAX TEMPERATURES GO, ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF MIDDLE 90S.
DESPITE PRETTY TYPICAL DIURNAL TSTM CVRG, THERE IS POSSIBILITY FOR A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF
DEVELOPING SFC TROUGH. AS MISS/OHIO VALLEY ENERGY BEGINS TO RIDE
EASTWARD AND UPPER HEIGHTS NUDGE DOWNWARD, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BECOME NUMEROUS
REGIONWIDE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 130 PM SUNDAY: TEMPERATURES WILL PULL BACK TO AROUND CLIMO
AS A WAVY FLOW SETS UP ATOP THE REGION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK. GIVEN THE SEASONABLY RICH MOISTURE IN PLACE, PRETTY MUCH
EITHER DAY THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAIN OR
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS, EVEN OUTSIDE OF PEAK HEATING DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR SUBTLE ENERGY TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED
WAVY PATTERN. THERE IS CERTAINLY NO INDICATION THAT THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL SUPPRESSED IN ANY WAY NEXT WEEKEND WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE
IN THE MEAN PATTERN EXPECTED. DAILY TEMPERATURES STILL AROUND CLIMO
WITH LIKELY PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY.
AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTN ON THE PERIPHERY
OF CHANTAL AT THE NC SITES AND PERHAPS OCCASIONALLY AT THE SC
SITES. PRECIP IS NOW MENTIONED ONLY IN PROB30 AT KCLT, AND CHANCES
ARE UNMENTIONABLY LOW ELSEWHERE. CIGS NEAR MVFR-VFR THRESHOLD
AT ISSUANCE TIME AT KCLT/KHKY BUT A GRADUAL LIFTING TREND IS
EXPECTED THRU THE REST OF THE AFTN. GUSTS SUBSIDE BY EVENING,
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AND BACKING BY MORNING. DRY ENOUGH THAT FOG
IS UNLIKELY TO FORM TONIGHT DESPITE THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING
SKIES. LOW VFR CU DEVELOPING DIURNALLY BUT MIXING UP TO 050-070
BY AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIP AT KAVL AFTER 18Z, OTHERWISE
LOOKING DRY.
OUTLOOK: MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO LATE WEEK, WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY IN
THE AFTN/ EVENING AND FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JRK/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
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