835
FXUS62 KGSP 121802
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
202 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS AROUND THE REGION
EACH DAY OF THE COMING WEEK. A FEW STORMS THIS WEEKEND WILL POSE
A RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE NEXT WEEK
LOOK TO BE SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH HEAT INDEX RISING OVER 100 EACH
OF THOSE DAYS IN MOST OF THE PIEDMONT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 145 PM EDT SATURDAY: THE SITUATION LOOKS LIKE THE CLASSIC
SUMMERTIME DAY ACROSS THE FCST AREA. ALREADY SEEING NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT
GIVEN SFC-BASED CAPE OF 2500-3000 J/KG. SHEAR REMAINS WEAK AS PER
USUAL AT THIS TIME OF YEAR, SO ANY ORGANIZATION OF STORMS THAT
HAPPENS WILL BE ALONG OUTFLOWS AND COLD POOL CONSOLIDATIONS. CAN'T
RULE OUT A FEW WET MICROBURST PRODUCERS, MAINLY NORTH OF I-40 WHERE
THE DCAPE REACHES ABOVE 800 J/KG, WORKING ITS WAY DOWN INTO THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT LATER TODAY. SPEAKING OF WHICH, THE EXPECTATION IS
FOR THE CONVECTION TO COME DOWN OFF THE ESCARPMENT AND TO DEVELOP
EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, SO THE ENTIRE FCST AREA GETS AT
LEAST A CHANCE INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE EVENING. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN WARM, BUT NOT HOT ENOUGH TO WORRY ABOUT REACHING ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THIS EVENING, THE STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH IN TYPICAL
FASHION AND TIMING, THEREAFTER WE WILL WATCH FOR LOW STRATUS AND
FOG DEVELOPMENT MAINLY OVER THE MTNS. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
FOR SUNDAY, THE OVERALL PATTERN DOESN'T CHANGE MUCH, SO THE FORECAST
SHOULD BE ESSENTIALLY PERSISTENT, AS A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROF
AXIS HANGS BACK OVER THE MIDWEST TO THE OZARKS, SUPPORTING A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST. MEANWHILE, A
MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF WILL BUILD A BIT OVER OUR AREA. THE
EFFECT WILL BE LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER AND THE REINTRODUCTION OF
SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR. BUOYANCY/SHEAR WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY,
BUT STORMS SHOULD BE LESS NUMEROUS, AND WHAT DEVELOPS SHOULD HAVE
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE AT PRODUCING STRONG DOWNDRAFTS. THE LOWER
PW SHOULD PROVIDE A DOWNWARD TREND TO THE FLOOD THREAT. CONSISTENT
WITH THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS AND LESS PRECIP COVERAGE, TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES HIGHER FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1145 AM SATURDAY: THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGING TO LINGER
ATOP THE REGION TO START OFF THE WORK WEEK, AND JUST LIKE SUNDAY,
ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED, WITH PIEDMONT MAXIMUMS AGAIN IN
THE MIDDLE 90S WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 100S. WE ARE STILL EXPECTING A SLIGHT DRYING TREND WITH
RESPECT TO PWAT VALUES SO THE OVERALL CVRG OF DIURNALLY FIRED DEEP
CONVECTION SHOULD BE BACK TO CLIMATOLOGY, IF NOT A LITTLE LESS,
ESPECIALLY IN THE PIEDMONT. GIVEN THE PROBABILITY OF A DECENT AMOUNT
OF DRY AIR ABOVE THE DEVELOPING MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WEAK
STEERING FLOW, INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. EVEN THOUGH
THERE LOOKS TO BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MAGNITUDE AND POSITIONING OF
UPPER RIDGING ON TUESDAY WILL BE BEGIN TO BACK AWAY FROM THE VERY
HOT CONDITIONS. WITH WHAT IS LOOKING LIKE AN INCREASE IN LLVL
ATLANTIC FETCH, THE POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS BACK IN THE PICTURE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY: THE GENERAL PATTERN ATOP THE REGION THOUGHOUT
THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK IS SHAPING UP TO BE PRETTY TYPICAL FOR
MID-JULY. THIS WILL FEATURE A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME
THANKS TO LINGERING UPPER ANTI-CYCLONE, ALONG WITH A BROAD SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY LLVL FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE. DAILY
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN A CATEGORY OF CLIMO WITH
DAILY, DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
NUMEROUS, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: A TYPICAL SUMMER DAY AROUND THESE
PARTS. ALREADY SEEING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND STARTING TO MOVE OFF THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT,
AND IN TYPICAL FASHION, THE STORMS SHOULD BLORP OUT ACROSS THE
UPSTATE AND WESTERN PIEDMONT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE
USING UP ALL THE BUOYANT ENERGY AROUND SUNSET. THE PROB30S HAVE
BEEN UPGRADED TO TEMPOS AT ALL TERMINALS, AND THE TIMING HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED BASED ON THE MODEL DEPICTION OF CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION,
WHICH AGREES WITH OBSERVATIONS AND CLIMO. EXPECT STRONG VARIABLE
WINDS AND IFR VIS IN THE STORMS. WE SHOULD HAVE ONLY CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS REMAINING OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT/VAR WINDS. LOW STRATUS/FOG
IS A GOOD BET IN THE MTN VALLEYS AROUND KAVL, POSSIBLY AS LOW AS
LIFR IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. SUNDAY SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR. ONLY
KCLT GETS A MENTION OF PRECIP SUNDAY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON BECAUSE
OF THE LATE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MTNS.
OUTLOOK: TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...PM
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