331
FXUS62 KGSP 132332
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
732 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
A TYPICALLY ACTIVE MID-SUMMER WEEK IS AHEAD AS DAILY THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES CONTINUE. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS,
PARTICULARLY MONDAY. DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK BUT TREND BACK TO AROUND
NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 730 PM EDT SUNDAY: ISOLATED CONVECTION STILL HANGING AROUND
THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. AFTER THAT, YET
ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL, CLEARING SKY, AND A
CHANCE OF MTN VALLEY FOG IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
FOR MONDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD FLATTEN AND
EXPAND AS THE WEAK UPPER WAVE TO OUR NW LIFTS OUT AND DEAMPLIFIES
QUICKLY AS IT PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS
SUGGESTS A CONTINUANCE OF WHAT ESSENTIALLY AMOUNTS TO A SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN CLIMO PRECIP PROB ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE MTNS ARE
THE EXCEPTION, WHERE PRECIP PROBS WILL GO INTO THE LIKELY RANGE,
MOSTLY BECAUSE OF THE HRRR SUGGESTION OF SOME BETTER COVERAGE
AND ORGANIZATION ALONG A POSSIBLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY, FROM PREVIOUS
CONVECTION, THAT REACHES THE MTNS DURING AFTERNOON HEATING. PROFILES
LOOK TALL AND SKINNY AND MID-LEVEL DRY AIR IS NOT AS PRONOUNCED
ON FCST SOUNDINGS, SO PERHAPS OUR SEVERE THREAT WILL TREND BACK
DOWN. AS FOR TEMPS...IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER HOT ONE...BUT WITH
DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT ENOUGH AGAIN TO KEEP THE APPARENT TEMP BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1155 AM SUNDAY: THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED REMAIN ATOP
THE CWFA THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE ADVECTS HIGHER PWAT VALUES INTO THE REGION,
WHICH SEEM TO BE TROPICAL IN NATURE ORIGINATING CLOSER TO THE WWD
MOVING INVERTED TROUGH. DESPITE THE UPPER RIDGE POSITIONING, GIVEN
BROAD SOUTHERLY LLVL CONVERGENCE AND RICHER MOISTURE, DIURNALLY
ENHANCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME NUMEROUS
EACH DAY WITH LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON ONGOING THREAT. WE WILL
BE STEPPING AWAY MONDAY'S PIEDMONT MAXIMUM MIDDLE 90S PROGGING
VALUES CLOSER TO CLIMO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT SFC DWPTS WILL
WIND UP BEING HIGHER WITH LESS CHANCES OF DOWNWARD MIXING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1230 PM SUNDAY: THE CWFA STILL LOOKS TO BE WITHIN THE
PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION AROUND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE TO START
OFF THE PERIOD WITH THE DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF BOTH REBUILDING THE
CENTER OF STRONG UPPER ANTICYCLONE BACK ATOP THE REGION FOR FRIDAY.
SO, DAILY MAXIMUMS WILL CREEP BACK UPWARD TO ABOVE CLIMO BY FRIDAY.
POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION ON THURSDAY MAY TREND BACK TO
CLIMO POP ON FRIDAY IF RIDGE IN FACT DOES BUILD AS PROGGED. THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE HINTING THAT UPPER RIDGE CENTRAL WILL SHIFT
WWD OVER NEXT WEEKEND, BUT AT THIS POINT, SENSIBLE WX WILL BE
TYPICAL FOR MID-JULY FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: MONITORING ISOLATED TSRA AT TAF TIME STILL,
AND HAVE KEPT PROB30 FOR KCLT FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS TO COVER
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL, BUT OTHERWISE VFR THIS EVENING. EXPECT TYPICAL
MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG/LOW STRATUS THAT MAY ENCROACH ON KAVL AND HAVE
KEPT TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS TAF FOR MVFR RESTRICTIONS, WITH TEMPO AT
KHKY AS WELL. ANOTHER ROUND OF PROB30 TSRA AT ALL SITES MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ONLY MINOR VARIATIONS IN TIMING. WINDS WILL BE
LGT/VRB OVERNIGHT BUT TRENDING GENERALLY NW.
OUTLOOK: TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...PM/TDP
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...TDP
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