349
FXUS62 KGSP 141757
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
157 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
A TYPICALLY ACTIVE MID-SUMMER WEEK IS AHEAD AS DAILY THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES CONTINUE. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
BACK TO AROUND THE NORMAL MID-JULY MUGGINESS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1245 PM EDT MONDAY: FAIRLY QUIET STILL AS WE WORK OUR WAY
INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEEP SUSTAINED
CONVECTION THUS FAR. THE ENVIRONMENT ISN'T QUITE AS ROBUST AS THE
PREVIOUS FEW, WITH SFC-BASED CAPE ONLY IN THE 1500-2500 K/KG RANGE
IN SPITE OF TEMPS HAVING ALREADY PUSHED INTO THE 90S OUTSIDE THE
MTNS, PROBABLY BECAUSE OF MORE TENDENCY TO MIX DOWN THE DEWPOINT
A BIT EARLIER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE
MTNS NEVER REALLY GETS ALL THAT UNSTABLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
ACCORDING TO THE MODEL GUIDANCE, WHICH IS PROBABLY WHY THE CAMS
NEVER REALLY SHOW MUCH COVERAGE. THE BETTER CHANCES, ALBEIT MAYBE
ONLY 30-40PCT AT BEST, MIGHT BE FROM THE ESCARPMENT EASTWARD
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WON'T RULE OUT A FEW WET MICROBURST PULSE
SEVERE STORMS, MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA, SO
WE WON'T ARGUE WITH THE MARGINAL RISK IN THE DAY 1 OUTLOOK. THE
PROFILES SHOW MORE MOISTURE THAN YESTERDAY, SO THERE'S AN UPTICK
IN HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL, BUT THE BETTER CHANCES OF FLOODING RAIN
ARE DEFINITELY OFF TO OUR EAST AND NORTHEAST.
MOST LIKELY, THE CONVECTION WILL HAVE A DIURNAL TENDENCY AND
WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET, BUT IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THE HRRR
THAT APPEARS TO KEEP SOME SORT OF WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA
EAST OF THE MTNS THAT IS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE FCST HASN'T BEEN CHANGED
MUCH IN THAT REGARD, AND STILL HOLDS ONTO A SWATH OF PRECIP
CHANCES MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND NRN UPSTATE PAST
MIDNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW BECAUSE WE ARE STUCK IN WEAK
FLOW ALOFT IN BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND THE SHORT WAVE
THAT HAS LIFTED OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. BECAUSE OF THE DEEP WARM
CLOUD DEPTH, HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER, AND WEAK FLOW LATE TONIGHT,
THERE'S A SNEAKY FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
LATE LATE TONIGHT IF WE CAN GET CONVECTION TO DEVELOP, WHICH THE
CAMS ARE NOT ALTOGETHER EXCITED ABOUT. OTHERWISE, THERE'S MORE OF
AN INDICATION OF MTN VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS COMPARED TO THE
WEEKEND. LOW TEMPS WILL BE SEASONALLY WARM.
FOR TUESDAY, THE GUIDANCE SHOWS BETTER COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION
THAT GETS AN EARLIER START. WE WILL BE UNDER AN EXPANDING FLAT
UPPER ANTICYCLONE, SO THE TRIGGER WILL BE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WHICH ALL THE CAMS ARE SHOWING. STORMS
WOULD EVENTUALLY WORK THEIR WAY OFF THE ESCARPMENT AND DOWN
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT ALONG COLD POOLS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THRU
THE AFTERNOON. PROFILES ARE NOT ESPECIALLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
STORMS. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER BECAUSE OF THE
EARLY START, MORE CLOUDS, AND MORE NUMEROUS STORMS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1215 PM MONDAY: THE MEAN PATTERN ATOP THE REGION CHANGES
LITTLE THROUGH THE PERIOD, CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE, WITH THE WWD EXTENT OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS LINGERING
OVER THE AREA. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURE OF INTEREST IS THE WWD
MOVING INVERTED TROUGH EVOLVING INTO THE GULF ON WEDNESDAY. THERE
EXISTS THE ONGOING PROBABILIY OF TAPPING INTO TROPICAL MOISTURE AS
RICHER PWATS ARE PROGGED TO BLOSSOM NWD WITHIN REINFORCED SOUTHERLY
LLVL FLOW. THE TREND OF BECOMING SLIGHT LESS HOT WILL CONTINUE BUT
WITH SFC DWPTS NUDGING HIGHER IT WILL STILL FEEL QUITE MUGGY. WITH
THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE AXIS POKING FURTHER WWD INTO THE CWFA ON
THURSDAY, THE LLVL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO A MORE SW
DIRECTION, PERHAPS RESULTING IN DIRUNALLY ENHANCED DEEP CONVECTIVE
CHANCES TRENDING BACK TOWARD THE MID-JULY CLIMO, GIVEN THE RICHER
THAN TYPICAL MOISTURE, STORMS WILL PROBABLY BECOME NUMEROUS AGAIN.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 115 PM MONDAY: EXPECTING TO HEAT BACK ABOVE TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PIEDMONT SOLID MIDDLE 90S
POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY. ALSO OVER THE WEEKEND, THERE IS THE ONGOING
CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 100S EACH
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OFFSHORE TO START OFF THE
PERIOD TRANSLATES WWD TO ATOP THE SE CONUS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES AND PERHAPS A LLVL BAROCLINIC ZONE
ENCROACHING OUR NORTHERN TIER. DESPITE THE UPPER RIDGE POSITIONING,
DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO WITH AN ONGOING
RISK LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WITH IN THE LINGERING WEAK FLOW REGIME.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR AT ALL TERMINALS OUTSIDE OF
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT, WITH A
LIGHT/VARIABLE WIND. WILL KEEP THE PROB30 AT ALL TERMINALS FOR
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING, AFTER WHICH IT SHOULD BE QUIET. MOISTURE
IS A BIT HIGHER TONIGHT, SO FOG/LOW STRATUS IS A BETTER BET AT
KAVL/KHKY, AND POSSIBLY EVEN AT KCLT. FOR TUESDAY, THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY WITH AN EARLIER
START, SO JUST ABOUT EVERYONE COULD GET A PROB30 BEFORE THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WIND WILL COME AROUND TO LIGHT S TO SE.
OUTLOOK: TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...PM
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