169
FXUS62 KGSP 142349
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
749 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
A TYPICALLY ACTIVE MID-SUMMER WEEK IS AHEAD AS DAILY THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES CONTINUE. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND BACK TO AROUND THE NORMAL MID-JULY MUGGINESS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 745 PM EDT MONDAY: CONVECTION REMAINS FAIRLY ISOLATED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION CONFINED TO AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHING NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS THE EASTERN SC UPSTATE AND THE NC PIEDMONT THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER WEAKER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SC UPSTATE. COULD SEE COVERAGE BLOSSOM FURTHER OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA OVER THE NEXT HALF HOUR OR SO AS THE TWO
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COLLIDE. THE ENVIRONMENT ISN'T QUITE AS ROBUST AS
THE PREVIOUS FEW, WITH SFC-BASED CAPE STILL ONLY RANGING FROM THE
1500-2500 J/KG RANGE. STILL CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED WET
MICROBURST PULSE SEVERE STORM, MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DCAPE VALUES ONLY UP TO 800-900 J/KG
CURRENTLY. THE PROFILES SHOW MORE MOISTURE THAN YESTERDAY, SO
THERE'S AN UPTICK IN HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL, BUT THE BETTER CHANCES OF
FLOODING RAIN ARE DEFINITELY EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MOST LIKELY, THE CONVECTION WILL HAVE A DIURNAL TENDENCY AND WILL
WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET, BUT IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THE HRRR THAT
APPEARS TO KEEP SOME SORT OF WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA EAST OF
THE MTNS THAT IS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE FCST HASN'T BEEN CHANGED MUCH IN THAT
REGARD, AND STILL HOLDS ONTO A SWATH OF PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY OVER
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND NRN UPSTATE PAST MIDNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS
FAIRLY LOW BECAUSE WE ARE STUCK IN WEAK FLOW ALOFT IN BETWEEN THE
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND THE SHORT WAVE THAT HAS LIFTED OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST. BECAUSE OF THE DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH, HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER, AND WEAK FLOW LATE TONIGHT, THERE'S A SNEAKY FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT LATE LATE TONIGHT IF WE CAN GET
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP, WHICH THE CAMS ARE NOT ALTOGETHER EXCITED
ABOUT. OTHERWISE, THERE'S MORE OF AN INDICATION OF MTN VALLEY FOG
AND LOW STRATUS COMPARED TO THE WEEKEND. LOW TEMPS WILL BE
SEASONALLY WARM.
FOR TUESDAY, THE GUIDANCE SHOWS BETTER COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION
THAT GETS AN EARLIER START. WE WILL BE UNDER AN EXPANDING FLAT
UPPER ANTICYCLONE, SO THE TRIGGER WILL BE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WHICH ALL THE CAMS ARE SHOWING. STORMS
WOULD EVENTUALLY WORK THEIR WAY OFF THE ESCARPMENT AND DOWN
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT ALONG COLD POOLS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THRU
THE AFTERNOON. PROFILES ARE NOT ESPECIALLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
STORMS. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER BECAUSE OF THE
EARLY START, MORE CLOUDS, AND MORE NUMEROUS STORMS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1215 PM MONDAY: THE MEAN PATTERN ATOP THE REGION CHANGES
LITTLE THROUGH THE PERIOD, CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE, WITH THE WWD EXTENT OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS LINGERING
OVER THE AREA. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURE OF INTEREST IS THE WWD
MOVING INVERTED TROUGH EVOLVING INTO THE GULF ON WEDNESDAY. THERE
EXISTS THE ONGOING PROBABILITY OF TAPPING INTO TROPICAL
MOISTURE AS RICHER PWATS ARE PROGGED TO BLOSSOM NWD WITHIN
REINFORCED SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW. THE TREND OF BECOMING SLIGHT
LESS HOT WILL CONTINUE BUT WITH SFC DWPTS NUDGING HIGHER IT WILL
STILL FEEL QUITE MUGGY. WITH THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE AXIS POKING
FURTHER WWD INTO THE CWFA ON THURSDAY, THE LLVL FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO VEER TO A MORE SW DIRECTION, PERHAPS RESULTING IN
DIURNALLY ENHANCED DEEP CONVECTIVE CHANCES TRENDING BACK TOWARD
THE MID-JULY CLIMO, GIVEN THE RICHER THAN TYPICAL MOISTURE,
STORMS WILL PROBABLY BECOME NUMEROUS AGAIN.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 115 PM MONDAY: EXPECTING TO HEAT BACK ABOVE TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PIEDMONT SOLID MIDDLE 90S
POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY. ALSO OVER THE WEEKEND, THERE IS THE ONGOING
CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 100S EACH
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OFFSHORE TO START OFF THE
PERIOD TRANSLATES WWD TO ATOP THE SE CONUS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES AND PERHAPS A LLVL BAROCLINIC ZONE
ENCROACHING OUR NORTHERN TIER. DESPITE THE UPPER RIDGE POSITIONING,
DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO WITH AN ONGOING
RISK LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WITH IN THE LINGERING WEAK FLOW REGIME.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR THROUGH TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED
CONVECTION. MAINTAINED A PROB30 FOR TSRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
AT KCLT AS CONVECTION IS CLOSEST TO THIS TERMINAL AS OF 00Z. WENT
WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE AS CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED TO HOLD
TOGETHER OUTSIDE OF KCLT. COULD SEE MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AND/OR LOW
STRATUS DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO DAYBREAK TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE ON
FOG/LOW STRATUS REACHING KAVL REMAINS VERY LOW. CONFIDENCE IS A BIT
HIGHER FOR KHKY AS THE TERMINAL HAS SEEN CIG AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS
DEVELOP THE LAST FEW MORNINGS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE CALM TO LIGHT
AND VRB THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. BETTER TSRA CHANCES RETURN
TOMORROW LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO HAVE PROB30S ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS TO ACCOUNT FOR ACTIVITY. VFR WILL ONCE AGAIN PREVAIL
TUESDAY OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION AND MORNING FOG/STRATUS. WIND
DIRECTION WILL GRADUALLY TURN SE'LY TUESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. FOG
AND/OR LOW STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...AR/PM
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...AR
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