440
FXUS62 KGSP 161050
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
650 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS STICK AROUND
THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 645 AM WED: SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME CONTINUES ACROSS THE
CWA. DESPITE RATHER POOR LAPSE RATES OWING TO THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA, AND AFTER A LULL IN THE LATE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, CONVECTION RECENTLY REDEVELOPED ALONG THE SOUTH FACING
SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT WHERE TERRAIN IS ENHANCING
LIFT. PARTS OF TRANSYLVANIA COUNTY SAW 1-2" ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT
AND RATES WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED WITH THE NEW ACTIVITY. LOW LCLS
MAY ALLOW SOME CONTINUED REDEVELOPMENT OR PROPAGATION NORTHWARD
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE, TODAY LOOKS TO BE CLOSER
TO A TYPICAL MIDSUMMER SETUP FOR THE CAROLINAS/GEORGIA AS MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES, WITH PWATS REMAINING IN THE 1.8 TO 2
INCH RANGE. INFLUENCE OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE FL PANHANDLE SHOULD
DIMINISH, WITH FLOW REMAINING SOUTHERLY AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHEASTERLY
AS YESTERDAY; THE BERMUDA HIGH DOMINATES, AND COVERAGE APPEARS
LESSER OVERALL. MODEST INSTABILITY IS RE-ESTABLISHED BY MIDDAY AND
RIDGETOP INITIATION APPEARS POSSIBLE AGAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON,
SUPPORTING NEAR-CLIMO POPS, MOSTLY 40-50%. A WEAK CAPPING LAYER
PERSISTS IN PROG SOUNDINGS OVER MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT WHICH WILL
KEEP INITIATION ISOLATED THERE, BUT MODELS MOSTLY FEATURE BETTER
COVERAGE IN THE SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN THE CSRA
AND MIDLANDS TO OUR SOUTH WHICH COULD PROPAGATE NORTH, SO LOW
CHANCE POPS ARE RETAINED FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. MAX TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHER THAN TYPICAL DEWPOINTS AS A RESULT OF THE
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND LIMITED MIXING, SO SOME AREAS MAY EXCEED
100 HEAT INDEX.
SOME CAMS, AND SEEMINGLY THE NAM, DEPICT EVENING CONVECTION
PROPAGATING INTO OUR SOUTHERN ZONES ALONG SEA BREEZE, OR AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM SOUTH GEORGIA. SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING, A NOCTURNAL
INVERSION APPEARS SLOW TO FORM AND SUCH ACTIVITY CAN'T BE RULED OUT,
NOR CAN A FEW ISOLATED CELLS DEVELOPING ON SOUTH-FACING SLOPES,
SO WE RETAIN SMALL POPS MUCH OF THE NIGHT, SLOWLY DIMINISHING BY
EARLY THU MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 125 AM EDT WEDNESDAY: BERMUDA RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND
WESTWARD DURING THE PERIOD, WHILE STEADY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
FILTERS IN CONTINUOUS HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. A SLIGHT UPTICK IN
TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EVIDENT WITH MUGGY DEWPOINTS
AND WARMER THICKNESSES IN PLACE. DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS
WHERE ABOVE CLIMO POPS ARE EXPECTED. TRENDS IN PWAT VALUES HAVE
LOWERED, LIKELY BEING CHOKED OFF BY THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER
THE GULF. THIS HELPS TO LOWER THE OVERALL HYDRO THREAT, BUT THERE
WILL STILL BE THE CONCERN OF A FEW INSTANCES OF LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING TO GO ALONG WITH THE WET MICROBURST THREAT. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE NORMAL, WITH HEAT
INDICES IN THE LOW 100S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AND ONLY FLIRTING WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA BY FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 145 AM EDT WEDNESDAY: THE AFOREMENTIONED EXTENSION OF THE
BERMUDA RIDGE WILL SET UP SHOP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS BY THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AMBIENT TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO
BE A FEW TICKS HIGHER COMPARED TO THE SHORT TERM FOR THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT. DEWPOINTS REMAIN ELEVATED AS WELL,
WHICH COULD COMBINE FOR A BETTER CHANCE FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA HEAT
INDICES, ESPECIALLY IN THE CHARLOTTE METRO AND LOWER PIEDMONT. AS
THE RIDGE CONTINUES ITS WESTWARD PUSH FURTHER INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE FLOW ALOFT
FLATTENS OUT A BIT AND TURNS MORE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY AND PLACES
A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLY TRACK FOR MCSS TO PUSH FURTHER SOUTH INTO
THE CFWA. THIS WILL BE A TREND TO KEEP AN EYE ON, BUT EITHER WAY
THE DAY TO DAY PULSE CONVECTION AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT
WILL BE IN PLAY EACH DAY IN MID-JULY FASHION UNLESS INTERRUPTED
BY SAID MCS POTENTIAL. THE FORECAST MOSTLY REMAINS THE SAME EACH
DAY THROUGH D7 (WASH, RINSE, REPEAT).
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: TERRAIN-INDUCED SHOWERS SW OF KAVL AT
ISSUANCE TIME; THIS IS HANDLED WITH A TEMPO AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. TRANSIENT LOW MVFR CUMULUS ARE SEEN AROUND THE REST OF
THE AREA AND INCLUDED A TEMPO AT THOSE SITES FOR POSSIBILITY OF A
CIG. LOW LCLS SHOULD RESULT IN FEW-SCT CU REMAINING AT MVFR LEVEL
THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING, WITH BASES THEN LIFTING TO VFR. WINDS
REMAIN S TO SSW TODAY. FAIRLY TYPICAL, MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING PROB30S FOR TSRA AT ALL SITES. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OR PATCHY
LOW VFR STRATOCU LIKELY WILL BE FLOATING AROUND THE TERMINAL AREA
TONIGHT; RESTRICTIONS MOST LIKELY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT
NEAR KAVL AND PERHAPS IN AREAS WHERE HEAVY RAIN FALLS IN THE
EVENING. DEPICTIONS OF STRATUS CREEPING IN FROM THE COAST PROVED
OVERDONE THIS MORNING SO NOT BUYING THOSE MODELS SHOWING IT FOR
THU MORNING.
OUTLOOK: THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOW STRATUS
OR FOG ARE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING IN MOUNTAIN/RIVER VALLEYS.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CAC
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...CAC
LONG TERM...CAC
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
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