818
FXUS62 KGSP 021034
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
634 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
COLD AIR DAMMING DEVELOPS THIS WEEKEND, LINGERING INTO MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW MUCH COOLER AND BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO RETURN ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES STICK AROUND THROUGH NEXT WEEK BUT A BRIEF
LULL MAY DEVELOP FOR SOME LOCATIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 630 AM EDT SATURDAY: EFFECTIVE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED
SOUTH OF THE CWA, WITH NE SURFACE WINDS OBSERVED IN ALL LOCATIONS
SOUTH & EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WEAK ADVECTION OF LOWER THETA-E AIR
ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS AND MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, WITH MAX TEMPS
FORECAST TO BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...OR 15-20 DEGREES COOLER
THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS. IN TERMS OF OUR MAIN CLIMATE SITES...THIS
WILL BRING AN ABRUPT END TO A STREAK OF 90-DEGREES DAYS THAT BEGAN
ALL THE WAY BACK ON JUNE 21ST AT GSP, AND ON JULY 7TH AT CLT.
WARMER CONDITIONS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY
AROUND THE SMOKIES AND VICINITY...COULD ALLOW FOR A THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, BUT OTHERWISE, ONLY SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED, WITH WEAK UPGLIDE AND E/SE UPSLOPE FLOW ATOP THE STABLE
LAYER BEING THE PRIMARY SOURCES OF LIFT. AS SUCH, GENERAL LIKELY
POPS ARE ADVERTISED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, WITH 30-50% CHANCES
ELSEWHERE (EVEN THOSE PROBABILITIES MAY PROVE TOO GENEROUS ACROSS
OUR EASTERN AREAS.) SHOWER CHANCES LINGER INTO TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT, WHERE AN E/SE UPSLOPE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST. THE LACK OF INSTABILITY/COVERAGE OF DEEP
PRECIPITATION CORES WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, BUT STILL CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
FLASH FLOOD EVENT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 100 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) COLD AIR DAMMING CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
2) WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EACH DAY
3) SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE BUT DRIER CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOR SOME LOCATIONS
ABNORMALLY STRONG COLD AIR DAMMING FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR REMAINS IN
PLACE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM THANKS TO A SFC HIGH CENTER CENTERED
OVER THE NORTHEAST NOSING DOWN THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL KEEP WELL
BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPS, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, AND RAIN CHANCES
AROUND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
HIGHS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
EACH AFTERNOON. HIGHS ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EACH AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 80S, WITH ELEVATIONS ABOVE
3500 FEET SEEING HIGHS FROM THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. THIS WILL LEAD
TO HIGHS ON SUNDAY ENDING UP ~9-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY ENDING UP ~5-12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS EACH NIGHT
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S, WITH
LOWS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS EACH NIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO
UPPER 60S. THIS WILL LEAD TO LOWS ENDING UP A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT, BECOMING A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR
NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT.
AS FOR RAIN CHANCES, BOTH GLOBAL GUIDANCE AND HIGH-RES GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR DRIER CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP
DURING THE SHORT TERM, MAINLY ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT AND PORTIONS OF
THE NC FOOTHILLS. CONFIDENCE ON THIS REMAINS VERY LOW DUE TO
CONTINUED MODEL DISAGREEMENT BUT THE LATEST NBM POPS DO REFLECT THIS
TREND WITH THE LOWEST POPS IN PLACE OVER THESE LOCATIONS. NBM
THUNDER CHANCES HAVE TRENDED DOWN COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY
AND THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN HOW STRONG THE WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE.
STILL COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKS TO THE WEDGE
LIMITING SFC INSTABILITY. WITH LOWER PWATS THROUGH THE PERIOD, ANY
HYDRO CONCERNS SHOULD REMAIN LOW.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 100 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) COLD AIR DAMMING LINGERS THROUGH THE LONG TERM
2) A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BUT HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL EACH DAY
3) SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES STICK AROUND
WITH NO REAL MECHANISM AVAILABLE TO ERODE THE CAD WEDGE, IT STICKS
AROUND THROUGH THE LONG TERM THANKS TO THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SFC HIGH CONTINUING TO NOSE DOWN INTO THE REGION. DESPITE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD, HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL EACH DAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN ~5-9 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, BECOMING ~2-5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL END
UP NEAR NORMAL TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WITH HIGHER PWATS
RETURNING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST,
HYDRO CONCERNS MAY RETURN WITH EFFICIENT RAIN RATES AND HIGHER
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOW
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD THANK TO CAD AND CLOUD COVER
CONTINUING TO LIMIT SFC INSTABILITY.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: NE WINDS OF 5-10 KTS AND IFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE (OR SOON DEVELOP WHERE IT HASN'T YET) THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE TERMINAL FORECAST AREA IN THE
WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT/RESPONDING TO COLD AIR DAMMING
DEVELOPMENT. PATCHY DRIZZLE OR -RA IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING, AND THIS COULD EXPAND SOMEWHAT AFTER SUNRISE,
POSSIBLY PRODUCING MVFR VISBY RESTRICTIONS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF LIFR
CIG. OTHERWISE, GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS IS EXPECTED FROM THE NE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT AT LEAST MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED AT
WORST NEAR THE TAF SITES...AND PROB30S FOR SHRA ARE ADVERTISED AT
MOST SITES AT SOME POINT DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. CONDITIONS
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE TOO STABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE PERIOD, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A STRAY TS THIS AFTERNOON NEAR
KAND, ALTHOUGH THE PROBABILITY REMAINS TOO LOW FOR A TAF MENTION
AT THIS TIME. CIGS MAY SLIGHTLY DETERIORATE TONIGHT, MAINLY AT
THE SC TERMINALS, BUT MVFR IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY PREDOMINATE
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK: CIG RESTRICTIONS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS AT
LEAST A PART OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE, THE REST
OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS VFR APART FROM THE USUAL LOW STRATUS AND/OR
FOG EACH MORNING. SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON
SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE MTNS AND WESTERN SC UPSTATE. A RETURN
TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JDL
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