103
FXUS62 KGSP 051703
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
103 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEDGE OF COOL AND MOIST AIR WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK
BEFORE A POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW ERODES THE WEDGE THIS WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEDNESDAY, BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN EACH DAY THROUGH THIS WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1141 AM TUESDAY: THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED THROUGH TOMORROW WITH A STOUT UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A BERMUDA RIDGE JUST OFF THE EAST COAST.
FARTHER NORTH, A BELT OF WESTERLIES REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CONUS WITH BROAD TROUGHING EXTENDING DOWN THE APPALACHIANS
BETWEEN THE TWO PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED RIDGES. AT THE SURFACE, A
SPRAWLING HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OUT OF SOUTHEAST CANADA AND INTO
NEW ENGLAND, WHICH WILL KEEP A CAD PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDING DOWN THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS. SEVERAL ONGOING AREAS
OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA, MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL RATES ACROSS THE
CHARLOTTE METRO, WHICH PROMPTED SEVERAL FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS, HAVE
PUSHED EAST WITH ANY LINGERING FLOODING THREAT THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY REMAINING ISOLATED.
HEADING INTO TONIGHT, THE 12Z SUITE OF CAMS IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THAT A WEAK IMPULSE SWINGING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE BROAD TROUGH
SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING AND RENEWED ISENTROPIC ASCENT ATOP
THE WEDGE TO INITIATE ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
I-85 CORRIDOR. A SLIGHT UPTICK IN ELEVATED INSTABILITY ATOP THE COLD
DOME WOULD ALSO SUPPORT EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION RATES WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RATES POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED INSTANCE OR TWO OF MINOR/NUISANCE
FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY IF ANY HEAVIER
RATES OCCUR ACROSS AREAS THAT RECEIVED THAT MOST RAIN OVER THE LAST
DAY OR SO. FORCING BECOMES MORE NEBULOUS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW IN
THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE. THE RESULT
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SOMEWHAT DRIER PERIOD BY LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AFTER MORNING SHOWERS PUSH OUT OF THE AREA. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BECOME FOCUSED OUTSIDE OF THE WEDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS WHERE MORE TRADITIONAL DIURNAL PULSE CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM TOMORROW IN THE ABSENCE OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DURING PEAK HEATING, BUT WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
1) COLD AIR DAMMING WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THIS PERIOD, BUT HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
2) RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH A TRANSITION TO
MORE OF A DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTIVE REGIME.
AS OF 1150 AM EDT TUESDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES WILL MAINTAIN EASTERLY FLOW AND RIDGING ACROSS
OUR AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL ACT TO KEEP
THE WEDGE IN PLACE, BUT IT SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH TIME. HIGHS
SHOULD CLIMB BACK INTO LOWER 80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE PIEDMONT
AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, WHICH IS STILL WELL BELOW CLIMO.
RAINFALL WILL ALSO TREND DOWN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH A MORE
DIURNAL PATTERN SETTING BACK UP.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES
1) WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING LINGERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
2) CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW IMPACTS
THIS WEEKEND.
3) FORECAST TEMPERATURES SLOWLY INCREASE BUT REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY.
AS OF 1205 PM EDT TUESDAY: A SIMILAR PATTERN TO THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST MAY BRING SOME MOISTURE INTO OUR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS, BUT
OTHERWISE EXPECT A DIURNAL SHOWER PATTERN WITH HIGHS REMAINING BELOW
CLIMO.
AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: POOR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS A COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME
REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION. WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS WILL
KEEP CEILINGS PREDOMINATELY IFR THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH AN
OCCASIONAL BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR POSSIBLE, BUT THIS WILL BE THE
EXCEPTION AND NOT THE RULE. A FEW INSTANCES OF LIFR WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. SEVERAL BATCHES OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LIFT ACROSS THE
AREA WITH ASSOCIATED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. A BRIEF LULL IN
ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
BEFORE YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS BLOSSOMS AGAIN OVERNIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS TO MOST TERMINALS. OTHERWISE, MIST/PATCHY FOG WILL KEEP
VISIBILITY IN THE LOW VFR TO MVFR RANGE OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST.
OUTLOOK: COLD AIR DAMMING STICKS AROUND THROUGH THE WORKWEEK KEEPING
RAIN CHANCES AS WELL AS PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS AROUND. EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SCW
NEAR TERM...TW
SHORT TERM...SCW
LONG TERM...SCW
AVIATION...TW
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