188
FXUS62 KGSP 060615
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
215 AM EDT WED AUG 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEDGE OF COOL AND MOIST AIR WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK BEFORE A POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW ERODES THE WEDGE THIS
WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL TAPER OFF THIS MORNING, WITH SHOWERS,
ALONG WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE
EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN TODAY, BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 200 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING THIS MORNING, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85
2) WARMER TODAY BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO COLD AIR
DAMMING STICKING AROUND
3) DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON
BUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN AN UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS ALLOWING
ANOTHER BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TO BLOSSOM AND LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE GA MOUNTAINS AS WELL
AS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NC MOUNTAINS SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AS
RAIN SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN EAST OF THESE AREAS. WITH FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE RUNNING LOWER THANKS TO A SWATH HEAVY RAIN THAT FELL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CWA YESTERDAY, THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING AS IT WILL NOT TAKE AS MUCH RAIN TO CREATE HYDRO ISSUES
(THANKS TO WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE). WITH CAMS
NOT HAVING RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY REGARDING WHERE EXACTLY THE HEAVY
AXIS OF RAIN WILL SETUP THIS MORNING, CONFIDENCE ON EXACTLY WHERE
FLASH FLOODING WILL OCCUR REMAINS LOW. THUS, A FLOOD WATCH WAS NOT
ISSUED. HOWEVER, AREAS OF GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE ALONG/SOUTH OF I-
85 AS 2-5 INCHES OF RAIN FELL ACROSS THESE ZONES YESTERDAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FROM 0.25" TO 1" CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
I-40. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1.5" TO 2.5+ INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
WHERE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS TRACK AND/OR TRAIN, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF 85.
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY RETURN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY LINGER ALONG THE I-77
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. DID GO LOWER
THAN NBM REGARDING THUNDER CHANCES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH COLD
AIR DAMMING STILL IN PLACE. ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL BE WARMER TODAY,
THEY WILL STILL END UP 6-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA AND 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD END UP A FEW DEGREES WARMER BUT WILL STILL
END UP A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. PATCHY
FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT INTO DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
1) COLD AIR DAMMING WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THIS PERIOD, BUT
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
2) CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION END, BUT ISOLATED-TO-
SCATTERED, MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED.
AS OF 1255 AM EDT WEDNESDAY: THE AXIS OF A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH
WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THE START OF THE
SHORT TERM, AND IS FORECAST TO PUSH EAST OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY
MORNING. DEEP MOISTURE WILL THEREFORE STEADILY SHUNT EAST OF THE
AREA ON THURSDAY, BRINGING AN END TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER
WITHIN INVERTED RIDGE AXIS/REMNANT (& WEAKENING) COLD AIR DAMMING.
CONDITIONS WITHIN THE DAMMING REGION WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL AND
STABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT MODERATE DESTABILIZATION IS
EXPECTED AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE CWA, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF FAR SOUTHWEST NC. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST BOTH THU AND FRI AFTERNOONS IN THESE AREAS. DESPITE THE
STABLE CONDITIONS WITHIN THE HEART OF THE CWA, LINGERING EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW ATOP THE REMNANT COOL POOL WILL NEVERTHELESS SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT, WITH SMALL POPS (20-30%) WARRANTED
EVEN IN THESE AREAS. THE GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN MAX TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE, BUT FORECAST HIGHS EACH DAY ARE 7-10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES
1) COLD AIR DAMMING FINALLY COMES TO AN END.
2) FORECAST TEMPERATURES SLOWLY INCREASE BUT REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
UNTIL TUESDAY.
3) THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE CYCLE RETURNS.
AS OF 1230 AM EDT WEDNESDAY: A NEBULOUS UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL
BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED, GENERALLY
CHARACTERIZED BY A BROAD WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE
LATEST GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT THAT A TROPICAL...OR
AT LEAST HYBRID CYCLONE WILL BE PULLING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, WITH AN INVERTED
RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER, NE FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AS WEAKENING SURFACE
HIGH DRIFTS SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL DRIVE DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND, EFFECTIVELY ENDING COLD AIR
DAMMING AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS. RESULTANT MODIFYING AIR MASS WILL
ALLOW FOR INCREASING DIURNAL INSTABILITY EACH DAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES, WITH SCATTERED-TO-NUMEROUS COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS, AND SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER THE PIEDMONT. MAX TEMPS
WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, WARMING TO
NEAR NORMAL BY DAY 7/TUESDAY. MIN TEMPS WILL BE AROUND NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: SEEING MOSTLY MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS
ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH SOME OCCASIONAL VFR AS OF 06Z. MVFR TO IFR
CIGS SHOULD LINGER EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NC TERMINALS AS OF 06Z
WHILE -RA IS DEVELOPING OVER THE SC UPSTATE TERMINALS. -RA WILL
CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM THROUGH DAYBREAK, MAINLY EAST OF THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL NC MOUNTAINS, LINGERING THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID-MORNING
HOURS. KAVL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REMAIN DRY THIS MORNING SO ONLY
HAVE A PROB30 FOR -RA AT THIS TERMINAL WITH PREVAILING -RA
ELSEWHERE. +RA WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS MORNING SO HAVE TEMPOS
FOR THIS POTENTIAL FOR TERMINALS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. +RA WILL
LIKELY LOWER VSBYS TO IFR OR LOWER AND IMPROVE CIGS TO MVFR OR
HIGHER. KCLT MAY SEE -RA LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON SO
HAVE A PROB30 FOR -RA FROM 18Z-21Z. ELSEWHERE, DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN LATER THIS MORNING, LINGERING ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER, ISOLATED TSRA MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO HAVE A
PROB30 FOR TSRA AT KAVL FROM 20Z-24Z. CIGS AT KAVL SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE
DROPPING TO IFR AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT KAVL OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN NNE/NE
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. WINDS AT KAVL WILL
BE LIGHT AND VRB THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, BECOMING E/ESE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE GOING LIGHT AND VRB AGAIN TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: THE WEDGE PATTERN PERSISTS OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
WORKWEEK KEEPING RAIN CHANCES AND PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS AROUND.
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...AR
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page