117
FXUS62 KGSP 070021
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
821 PM EDT WED AUG 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEDGE OF COOL AND MOIST AIR WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK
BEFORE A POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW FINALLY DISLODGES THE WEDGE LATE
THIS WEEKEND. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS EACH AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH A WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TODAY, BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, ONLY RETURNING TO
NORMAL NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 7:35 PM EDT WEDNESDAY: WE'VE CURRENTLY GOT A HANDFUL OF ISO-
LATED SHOWERS OVER THE NC MTNS, BUT HAVE YET TO SEE ANY LIGHTNING
FROM THEM. WE MAY SEE A FEW ISOLATED STRIKES OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS,
BUT ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN LATER TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE, THE EASTERN CONUS REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO STOUT
UPPER RIDGES WITH A 600DAM H5 RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
A 597DAM H5 RIDGE OFF THE COAST OVER THE ATLANTIC. BETWEEN THESE
TWO FEATURES, A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS DRAPED DOWN THE APPALACHIANS
WITH THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
AT THE SFC, SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP OUT OF
SOUTHEAST CANADA AND INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE UPPER MID ATLANTIC.
AT THE SAME TIME, A STATIONARY INVERTED TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SIT
JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MODEST
NE FLOW INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA IN A CAD
CONFIGURATION. TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN RELA-
TIVELY UNCHANGED WITH A CONTINUED DRYING TREND ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. PWATS WILL FALL BELOW 1.5" WITHIN THE DRY NE FLOW REGIME WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL PLAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
BACK INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S ON THURSDAY, WHICH IS STILL WELL-
BELOW AVERAGE FOR EARLY AUGUST. THE GREATEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE
OVER THE MTNS AGAIN, WHERE SOME AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ABLE
TO MATERIALIZE OUTSIDE OF THE CAD INFLUENCE. SOME SCT SHOWERS WITHIN
THE E/NE FLOW MAY SPREAD OVER THE I-77 CORRIDOR AND PORTIONS OF OUR
NC PIEDMONT, BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE NOTABLY LESS COMPARED TO THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1258 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) COLD-AIR DAMMING WEAKENS BUT REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD,
MAINTAINING BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
2) SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED.
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE THINKING FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING, A 1027MB SURFACE HIGH WILL BE IN PLACE OFF THE MA
COAST, CONTINUING TO DRIVE E/NE FLOW ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
CAROLINAS...AND MAINTAINING THE INCIPIENT SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. THOUGH THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY WOBBLE EAST THROUGH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THERE'LL BE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LOW-LEVEL
PATTERN...AND COLD-AIR DAMMING SHOULD THEREFORE REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL THUS REMAIN SOME 8-9
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ALOFT, A DRAMATICALLY-WEAKENED Z500 TROUGH
WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA, DRIVING THE BULK OF DEEP MOISTURE OUT OF
THE AREA AND CURTAILING LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT. ALL THAT TO
SAY, WHILE CAD WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...IT WON'T BE NEARLY AS RAINY
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE BULK OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE
WEDGE MIXING OUT AT LEAST BRIEFLY EACH AFTERNOON, EXCEPT IN THE MOST
WEDGED-IN AREAS ALONG THE NC BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT. SO, ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON;
EVEN FOR THE SHELTERED ESCARPMENT ZONES, EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
COULD RESULT IN SOME RAINFALL.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 113 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) COLD-AIR DAMMING ENDS AFTER SUNDAY/MONDAY.
2) TEMPERATURES BEGIN WARMING UP THROUGH NEXT WEEK, RETURNING TO
NORMAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
3) AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN EACH DAY.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ILL-DEFINED THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH SOME DEGREE OF
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING MAINTAINED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, AND
BROAD ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR A DEEPENING NORTHERN-STREAM TROUGH OVER
CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE
STILL SUPPORTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED LOW OR AT LEAST ROBUST
OPEN WAVE CHURNING UP OFF THE NC-VA COASTLINE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, LARGELY DISLODGING THE SURFACE HIGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...AND ALLOWING CAD TO END AT LAST.
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SHOULD TREND BACK TOWARD SEASONAL
CONDITIONS...AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARM UP, AFTERNOON INSTABILITY
BECOMES GREATER EACH DAY, AND DIURNAL CONVECTION RAMPS BACK UP.
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: A MIX OF CONDITIONS CONTINUES ACROSS OUR FCST
AREA THIS EVENING AS DRIER WEATHER GRADUALLY WORKS ITS WAY INTO OUR
AREA FROM THE NORTH. MOST SITES ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING EITHER MVFR
CIGS OR SCT MVFR-LEVEL CIGS. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST THRU THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING AT THE UPSTATE TERMINALS. AT KCLT, KHKY, AND
KAVL, EXPECT CIGS TO GO IFR OVERNIGHT. THEY SHOULD RETURN TO MVFR
LATER IN THE MORNING OR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT ALL TERMINALS TO
SCT OUT TO VFR BY MID-AFTERNOON TOMORROW. AT KAVL, AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT KHKY, EXPECT SOME COMBINATION OF VISBY RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT
AND INTO THE MORNING. THE OTHER TAF SITES COULD SEE VISBY RESTRICTIONS
AS WELL, BUT MY CONFIDENCE WASN'T HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.
OTHERWISE, KCLT AND KHKY HAVE PROB30S FOR SHOWERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON/
EVENING, AND KAVL HAS A PROB30 FOR TSRA. PRECIP CHANCES ARE TOO LOW
TO MENTION AT THE OTHER TAF SITES. WINDS WILL REMAIN NNE TO NE AT 5
TO 10 KTS THRU THE TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE THE MTNS. A FEW SPORADIC LOW-END
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AT KAVL, WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND VRB TO CALM
LATER TONIGHT AND REMAIN THAT WAY THRU TOMORROW MORNING. THEY WILL
PICK UP MARGINALLY FROM THE E TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: THE CURRENT WEDGE PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER OUR AREA INTO
THE WEEKEND, KEEPING PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS AROUND. AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY, WITH BETTER COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER THE MTNS.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...JPT/TW
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...JPT
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