867
FXUS62 KGSP 070544
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
144 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COOL AIR WEDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO REMAIN AT LEAST 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. NORMAL MID-SUMMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED-TO-SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 130 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) NO THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY
2) LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE EXPECTED, MAINLY ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS
AND PIEDMONT THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON
3) ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS
THE NC MOUNTAINS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
4) SLIGHTLY WARMER THIS AFTERNOON BUT BELOW NORMAL HIGHS CONTINUE
UPPER TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SFC RIDGE CENTERED OVER JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST EXTENDS DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. WITH
NO REAL MECHANISM IN PLACE TO ERODE THE WEDGE, IT WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM AS NOTED BY PERSISTENT NE SFC WINDS. ONCE
AGAIN WENT LOWER THAN THE NBM REGARDING THUNDER CHANCES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE WEDGE REMAINING IN PLACE. THIS LED TO A THUNDER
MENTION MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITH LOWER PWATS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, THERE WILL BE NO
ADDITIONAL CONCERNS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER, LIGHT RAIN
AND/OR DRIZZLE SHOULD DEVELOP THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON,
MAINLY ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT WHERE THE INFLUENCE OF
THE WEDGE WILL BE THE STRONGEST. THE 00Z HRRR TRIES TO DEVELOP LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS THE SC UPSTATE BUT THE 00Z NAMNEST GENERALLY KEEPS
PRECIP ALONG THE NC/SC STATE LINE AND NORTH. WITH NBM POPS MORE IN
ALIGNMENT WITH THE NAMNEST, CONFIDENCE ON ANY LIGHT PRECIP
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE UPSTATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON IS LOW.
ADDITIONALLY, 00Z CAMS ARE ON BOARD WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS THE SW NC MOUNTAINS. THUS, NBM LIKELY POPS
(60%-70%) LOOK GOOD FOR THOSE ZONES. SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLOUD COVER SCATTERING OUT A BIT MORE.
HOWEVER, HIGHS WILL STILL END UP ~5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS
WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS, WITH LOWS ENDING UP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 120 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) GRADUALLY WEAKENING COLD AIR DAMMING AND WARMING HIGH TEMPS.
2) ISOLATED-TO-SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS.
A NEBULOUS UPPER PATTERN WILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DURING
THE SHORT TERM, WITH BAGGY RIDGING EXPECTED. CONFLUENT FLOW INTO
A TROUGH/UPPER LOW OFF THE NORTHEAST CONUS WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED
INVERTED SURFACE RIDGING EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS, BUT THE POSITION
OF THE PARENT HIGH WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE FOR COLD
AIR DAMMING. ADDITIONALLY, SHARP N=>S ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE
WILL RESULT IN RATHER DEEP NE FLOW THAT WILL SUPPORT ONLY SHALLOW
MOISTURE, AND THE TENDENCY FOR A GOOD BIT OF THE CLOUD COVER TO
SCATTER OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUS, TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
6-9 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN STABLE ALONG AND
NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS, BUT SOME DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON ALONG THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SMOKIES AND VICINITY. THIS IS WHERE THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE ADVERTISED,
WITH POPS GENERALLY IN THE 50-60& RANGE EACH DAY. PRECIP CHANCES
ARE GENERALLY ONLY SLIGHT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA, BUT
WITH SOME DEGREE OF WEAK UPSLOPE AND/OR ISENTROPIC LIFT, CAN'T
RULE OUT A SHOWER HERE OR THERE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 130 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) COLD-AIR DAMMING FINALLY ENDS BY MONDAY, WITH MAX TEMPS RETURNING
TO NORMAL BY MID-WEEK.
2) TYPICAL MID-SUMMER DIURNAL CONVECTIVE CYCLE RETURNS.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REASSERT ITSELF ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF THE CONUS NEXT WEEK, WITH THE EAST COAST
SURFACE RIDGE FINALLY MOVING INTO THE ATLANTIC...BRINGING AN END TO
COLD AIR DAMMING. THE UPSHOT WILL BE A RETURN TO RUN-OF-THE-MILL MID-
SUMMER CONVECTIVE WEATHER...SCATTERED/NUMEROUS COVERAGE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND SCATTERED ELSEWHERE...BY MONDAY, CONTINUING THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE WITHIN BALLPARK
OF NORMAL BY TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: MOSTLY MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE TERMINALS AS OF 06Z. DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE AS WELL,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF -DZ AT KCLT. HAVE A TEMPO FROM 06Z-10Z AT KCLT
TO ACCOUNT FOR -DZ AS WELL AS MVFR VSBYS AND IFR CIGS. -DZ COULD
LINGER THROUGH DAYBREAK BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. CIGS AT
KHKY MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR LEVELS THROUGH DAYBREAK SO HAVE A TEMPO
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL AT THE TERMINAL. CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN AT IFR TO MVFR LEVELS THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS BEFORE
LIFTING TO MVFR TO VFR LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CIGS
SHOULD LOWER AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD SO HAVE
HINTED AT THIS POTENTIAL FOR NOW. PERIODS OF-RA ARE MOST LIKELY TO
DEVELOP AT KCLT AND KHKY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO HAVE PROB30S
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS, AS WELL AS ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS, FROM 20Z-
01Z. CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF THE PROB30S REMAINS LOW AT THIS
TIME AS GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EXACT START
AND END TIME OF -RA. KAVL WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE
TSRA DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO WENT WITH A PROB30 FROM
20Z-01Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS, AS WELL AS ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
CONFIDENCE ON THE PROB30 FOR TSRA IS LOW AS TSRA MAY NOT TRACK
DIRECTLY OVER KAVL. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE SC
UPSTATE TERMINALS. WIND DIRECTION WILL REMAIN NE EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. WINDS AT KAVL WILL START OUT LIGHT AND VRB TO CALM THIS
MORNING, GRADUALLY TURNING E/SE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE GOING LIGHT AND VRB TO CALM AGAIN THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 5-10 KTS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS, WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SPEEDS EXPECTED AT KAVL.
OUTLOOK: THE WEDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND, KEEPING PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS AND -RA CHANCES
AROUND. DAILY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED,
MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THE REST OF THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...AR
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