095
FXUS62 KGSP 071022
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
622 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COOL AIR WEDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO REMAIN AT LEAST 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. NORMAL MID-SUMMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED-TO-SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 620 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) NO THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY
2) LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE POSSIBLE TODAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE NC
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT
3) ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS
THE NC MOUNTAINS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
4) SLIGHTLY WARMER THIS AFTERNOON BUT BELOW NORMAL HIGHS CONTINUE
UPPER TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SFC RIDGE CENTERED OVER JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST EXTENDS DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. WITH
NO REAL MECHANISM IN PLACE TO ERODE THE WEDGE, IT WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM AS NOTED BY PERSISTENT NE SFC WINDS. ONCE
AGAIN WENT LOWER THAN THE NBM REGARDING THUNDER CHANCES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE WEDGE REMAINING IN PLACE. THIS LED TO A THUNDER
MENTION MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITH LOWER PWATS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, THERE WILL BE NO
ADDITIONAL CONCERNS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER, LIGHT RAIN
AND/OR DRIZZLE SHOULD DEVELOP TODAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS
AND PIEDMONT WHERE THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEDGE WILL BE THE STRONGEST.
THE 06Z HRRR TRIES TO DEVELOP LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE SC UPSTATE BUT
THE 06Z NAMNEST GENERALLY KEEPS PRECIP ALONG THE NC/SC STATE LINE
AND NORTH. WITH NBM POPS MORE IN ALIGNMENT WITH THE NAMNEST,
CONFIDENCE ON ANY LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPING ACROSS THE UPSTATE THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON IS LOW. ADDITIONALLY, 06Z CAMS ARE ON BOARD
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS THE SW NC MOUNTAINS.
THUS, NBM LIKELY POPS (60%-70%) LOOK GOOD FOR THOSE ZONES. SLIGHTLY
WARMER HIGHS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLOUD COVER SCATTERING
OUT A BIT MORE. HOWEVER, HIGHS WILL STILL END UP ~5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. LOWS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS, WITH LOWS ENDING UP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 120 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) GRADUALLY WEAKENING COLD AIR DAMMING AND WARMING HIGH TEMPS.
2) ISOLATED-TO-SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS.
A NEBULOUS UPPER PATTERN WILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DURING
THE SHORT TERM, WITH BAGGY RIDGING EXPECTED. CONFLUENT FLOW INTO
A TROUGH/UPPER LOW OFF THE NORTHEAST CONUS WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED
INVERTED SURFACE RIDGING EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS, BUT THE POSITION
OF THE PARENT HIGH WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE FOR COLD
AIR DAMMING. ADDITIONALLY, SHARP N=>S ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE
WILL RESULT IN RATHER DEEP NE FLOW THAT WILL SUPPORT ONLY SHALLOW
MOISTURE, AND THE TENDENCY FOR A GOOD BIT OF THE CLOUD COVER TO
SCATTER OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUS, TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
6-9 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN STABLE ALONG AND
NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS, BUT SOME DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON ALONG THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SMOKIES AND VICINITY. THIS IS WHERE THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE ADVERTISED,
WITH POPS GENERALLY IN THE 50-60& RANGE EACH DAY. PRECIP CHANCES
ARE GENERALLY ONLY SLIGHT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA, BUT
WITH SOME DEGREE OF WEAK UPSLOPE AND/OR ISENTROPIC LIFT, CAN'T
RULE OUT A SHOWER HERE OR THERE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 130 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) COLD-AIR DAMMING FINALLY ENDS BY MONDAY, WITH MAX TEMPS RETURNING
TO NORMAL BY MID-WEEK.
2) TYPICAL MID-SUMMER DIURNAL CONVECTIVE CYCLE RETURNS.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REASSERT ITSELF ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF THE CONUS NEXT WEEK, WITH THE EAST COAST
SURFACE RIDGE FINALLY MOVING INTO THE ATLANTIC...BRINGING AN END TO
COLD AIR DAMMING. THE UPSHOT WILL BE A RETURN TO RUN-OF-THE-MILL MID-
SUMMER CONVECTIVE WEATHER...SCATTERED/NUMEROUS COVERAGE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND SCATTERED ELSEWHERE...BY MONDAY, CONTINUING THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE WITHIN BALLPARK
OF NORMAL BY TUESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: MOSTLY MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE TERMINALS AS OF 12Z ALTHOUGH KAND IS CURRENTLY VFR. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING. CIGS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN AT IFR TO MVFR LEVELS THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS
BEFORE LIFTING TO MVFR TO VFR LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PERIODS OF-RA ARE MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP AT KCLT AND KHKY TODAY BUT
THE START TIME REMAINS IN QUESTION AS LIGHT PRECIP COULD DEVELOP AS
EARLY AS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO MAINTAINED
PROB30S DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS FOR NOW. KAVL WILL
ONCE AGAIN HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE DIURNAL TSRA DEVELOP SO
MAINTAINED THE PROB30. CONFIDENCE ON THE PROB30 FOR KAVL REMAINS LOW
AS ACTIVITY MAY NOT TRACK DIRECTLY OVER THE TERMINAL. DRY CONDITIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE SC UPSTATE TERMINALS. WIND DIRECTION WILL
REMAIN NE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD, WITH
SPEEDS RANGING FROM 5-10 KTS. WINDS AT KAVL WILL START OUT LIGHT AND
VRB TO CALM THIS MORNING, GRADUALLY TURNING E/SE LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON (WHILE REMAINING LIGHT) BEFORE GOING LIGHT AND
VRB TO CALM AGAIN THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. CIGS SHOULD LOWER AGAIN
OVERNIGHT INTO DAYBREAK FRIDAY, DROPPING TO MAINLY MVFR LEVELS.
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AT KAVL SO HAVE A TEMPO TOWARDS THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD HINTING AT THIS POTENTIAL.
OUTLOOK: THE WEDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND, KEEPING PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS AND -RA CHANCES
AROUND. DAILY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED,
MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THE REST OF THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...AR
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