799
FXUS62 KGSP 251051
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
651 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE IN STORE STARTING TODAY AND LIKELY REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 643 AM EDT MONDAY...THE COLD FRONTAL ZONE WOULD APPEAR TO
BE UPON US AS MOST SFC OBS HAVE GONE LIGHT OR LIGHT NW WITH THE
WIND, BUT TEMPS HAVE NOT REALLY RESPONDED. A FEW LOCATIONS EAST
OF THE MTNS HAVE SOME FOG, BUT THE ARRIVAL OF A PATCH OF THICKER
CIRRUS FROM THE WEST WILL HELP KEEP THE EXTENT AND VISIBILITY TO
MANAGEABLE LEVELS.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE CHANGE IN OUR WEATHER WILL TAKE PLACE
AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER TROF DIGS DOWN OVER EASTERN N AMERICA
WHILE THE UPPER LOW MOVES FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO QUEBEC. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING, USHERING A
MUCH DRIER AIR MASS THAN WE ARE USED TO FOR THE AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS
SHOULD DROP TO THE MID-50S TO MID-60S THRU THE AFTERNOON, LETTING US
KNOW THAT THE CHANGE IS IN THE AIR. HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL MAKE IT
UP TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL, BUT THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE NEXT WEEK. SKY SHOULD CLEAR OUT NICELY AS A CONTINENTAL
SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER FROM THE NW TONIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF FIVE DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL, PERHAPS
COOL ENOUGH FOR MANY OF US TO FINALLY OPEN UP THE WINDOWS OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 127 AM EDT MONDAY: CAA WILL BE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA
BY THE START OF TUESDAY UNDERNEATH STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE CWFA. TIGHTER THAN NORMAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LOW-END GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS, ESPECIALLY
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TUESDAY. DEWPOINTS SHOULD TANK INTO THE
40S AND 50S, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING COMMENCES. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL SHARPEN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. NOT
MUCH FANFARE BESIDES ELEVATED LOW-END GUSTS LINGERING INTO THE
NIGHTTIME PERIOD AND SOME MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS. SURFACE HIGH
EVENTUALLY SETS UP SHOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,
ALLOWING FOR DRY SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE, WHILE
ANY GUSTS SUBSIDES. ANOMALOUSLY LOWER THICKNESSES AND FALL-LIKE
PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 6-12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR BOTH
AFTERNOON HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DURING THE SHORT TERM.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 140 AM EDT MONDAY: BROAD UPPER TROUGHINESS REMAINS IN
PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHARPENS AND
SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA WITH WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. WEAK MOISTURE RETURN MAY HELP TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME SHOWERS,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THE MOISTURE WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME A
DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS. ANOMALOUSLY LOWER THICKNESSES REMAIN IN
PLACE GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A SURFACE HIGH MOVING OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS. PROLONGED DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY UNTIL
POTENTIALLY THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES BELOW-NORMAL AS A RESULT, WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT RECOVERY IN DEWPOINTS, KEEPING A REFRESHED AIRMASS IN PLACE
COMPARED TO WHAT WE TYPICALLY SEE AT THE END OF AUGUST.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR PREVAILING AT ALL TERMINALS THRU THE
PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT WAS MOVING ACROSS THE FCST AREA AT DAYBREAK,
WITH MOST OBSERVATIONS SHOWING A NW WIND DIRECTION. A PATCH OF THICK
CIRRUS MOVING OVERHEAD WAS HELPING TO PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. ONCE THE HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE OFF, SOME
HIGH-BASED STRATOCU WILL BE POSSIBLE. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT KAVL. THE LAMP GUIDANCE SUGGESTED THAT A LEE TROF COULD
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH COULD BACK THE WIND DIRECTION AROUND
TO WSW FOR AWHILE THIS AFTERNOON. THE DIRECTION SHOULD GO BACK TO
NW THIS EVENING. FOR TONIGHT, THERE COULD BE SOME RESTRICTIONS IN
THE MTN VALLEYS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
OUTLOOK: DRY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. FOG
AND LOW STRATUS MAY DEVELOP EACH NIGHT, MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CAC
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...CAC
LONG TERM...CAC
AVIATION...PM
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